A flying start to the “Proper” Jumps season?
Hi All
For those of us of a certain vintage may recall the National Hunt racing took a back seat not long after the Grand National. Nowadays there is jumps racing pretty much all year round but for the purists it is October onwards when the “proper” jumps season gets underway.
The saying ”All Roads lead to Cheltenham” begins in earnest with The Showcase fixture held over two days towards the end of October. There are however some canny yards that target a fast start to the winter campaign and there are plenty of races to be won from September onwards.
For this piece we are going to delve into the stats of the most recent 5 year period during September through to the end of November, to see if we can highlight a few of the yards that may be worth following this time around.
We will focus on UK racing and stables that have had at least 50 runners over our review period. We will also concentrate on stables with a decent strike rate, circa 15% or better along with a positive profit profile.
The following table details the most productive yards during the above period
| Trainer | Runners | Wins | SR | PL SP | PL BFSP | ROI BFSP |
| O’Neill Jonjo & AJ | 757 | 116 | 15.32% | -8.50 | 167.17 | 22.08% |
| Richards NG | 303 | 59 | 19.47% | 24.14 | 73.21 | 24.16% |
| Williams Venetia | 255 | 54 | 21.18% | 36.47 | 65.05 | 25.51% |
We will now take a closer look at each of the trainers from the above Table.
Jonjo & AJ O’Neill
Just over a year ago, May 2024, a new era began at Jackdaws Castle with Jonjo’s son AJ joining him to share the training licence. Jonjo had been the resident trainer at Jackdaws since 2001 and had a Grand National and Cheltenham Gold Cup amongst his numerous winners.
AJ O’Neill had been working at Jackdaws for a number of years, dividing his time between Assistant Trainer duties and riding under rules as an Amateur jockey.
| Year | Runners | Wins | SR | PL SP | PL BFSP | ROI BFSP |
| 2024 | 153 | 22 | 14.38% | -15.00 | 34.52 | 22.56% |
| 2023 | 145 | 21 | 14.48% | -38.09 | -23.76 | -16.38% |
| 2022 | 135 | 18 | 13.33% | 27.30 | 55.41 | 41.04% |
| 2021 | 138 | 26 | 18.84% | 16.21 | 34.63 | 25.10% |
| 2020 | 186 | 29 | 15.59% | 1.08 | 66.36 | 35.68% |
Based on the above you could have made a healthy return just blindly backing all of the runners from the yard over the last 5 year period during Sept-Nov. Four out of the five years were profitable, which is a positive start to proceedings.
If we now, consider the type of National Hunt race they were competing in we find the following.
| Race Type | Runners | Wins | SR | PL SP | PL BFSP | ROI BFSP |
| Chase | 251 | 27 | 10.76% | -61.37 | -11.50 | -4.58% |
| Hurdle | 433 | 74 | 17.09% | 35.73 | 153.23 | 35.39% |
| NH Flat | 73 | 15 | 20.55% | 17.14 | 25.44 | 34.85% |
It is clear from the above stats that the ones to play close attention to are the hurdlers and bumper runners. However, before we discard the chasers there is one more angle to consider, namely the performance by track.
| Track | Runners | Wins | SR | PL SP | PL BFSP | ROI BFSP |
| Ffos Las | 39 | 7 | 17.95% | 55.75 | 104.18 | 267.13% |
| Banger | 30 | 6 | 20.00% | 68.89 | 229.63 | 89.77% |
| Huntingdon | 22 | 4 | 18.18% | 32.25 | 87.20 | 396.38% |
| Carlisle | 55 | 16 | 29.09% | 12.63 | 21.48 | 39.05% |
| Southwell | 24 | 6 | 25.00% | 13.83 | 19.81 | 82.54% |
| Uttoxeter | 44 | 6 | 13.64% | 2.33 | 10.54 | 23.94% |
If we breakdown these results by race type, we find
| Race Type | Runners | Wins | SR | PL SP | PL BFSP | ROI BFSP |
| Chase | 78 | 11 | 14.10% | 10.99 | 53.13 | 68.11% |
| Hurdle | 112 | 27 | 24.11% | 164.11 | 267.89 | 239.18% |
| NH Flat | 24 | 7 | 29.17% | 10.58 | 11.97 | 49.86% |
So, by focussing on the tracks with the best historical performance we can include the chasers.
Back the National Hunt runners trained by Jonjo/AJ O’Neill during the months Sept-Nov when they are competing at Ffos Las, Bangor, Huntingdon, Carlisle, Southwell and Uttoxeter.
Moving on the next trainer in the original Table is Nicky Richards
Nicky Richards
This particular trainer has appeared in many a micro method as he continues to churn out winners year in year out.
Based on the edge of The Lake District National Park Nicky took over the reins in 1997 and has trained in excess of 800 winners and amassed £5M in prize money over the years.
His recent record over the Sept-Nov review period is as follows:
With the exception of 2020 the remaining years had been positive, albeit marginally last time around.
If we next consider the results by race type, we find:
Clearly the bumper runners are the ones to avoid, but both the Chasers and Hurdlers were profitable to follow over the review period. If we drill down a little to the performance by racecourse we find some contrasting results.
For example, Perth netted 1 winner from 31 runners, whereas Carlisle, Ayr and Hexham provided 32 winners from 127 runners which amounts to a solid 25.2% Strike Rate.
If we focus on the runners at five tracks, we have the makings of a micro method.
Back the National Hunt runners in Chases and Hurdles trained by Nicky Richards during the months Sept-Nov when they are competing at Ayr, Carlisle, Hexham, Sedgefield and Wetherby.
Next up is the legend Venetia Williams
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