Statman and The National Hunt

It may seem strange to start talking about the National Hunt in August, but the season will take off soon enough, and forewarned is forearmed as they say.

As if the Flat isn’t tricky enough, somebody decided putting hurdles or fences in front of the horses would make life even more interesting, and I am tasked with finding a way to increase our profits via past results.

We all know we can find plenty of winners backing the likes of Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and company every time they have a runner, but a punter’s life isn’t as easy as that – we need to fine tune where and when we do or don’t part with our cash, and that is what I am investigating this month.

Looking at the top five trainers last season (not that it ever really ends these days) the plan for this article is simple enough – where can we eke out a profit and where do they fail dismally (for those who like to lay on the exchanges now and then)?

Data used is from January 1^{, 2016,} to 31^st July 2025, chases, hurdles and National Hunt Flat races (bumpers) only – Thurles removed when necessary as they have sadly closed the track, top five taken from the UK trainer’s championship table 2023/2024.

Top Five trainers last season (with their profit or loss figures for ALL runners to £1 stake Betfair Starting Price in brackets):

Willie Mullins (+£330.28)

Dan Skelton (-£564.79)

Paul Nicholls (-£85.58)

Nicky Henderson (-£128.21)

Olly Murphy (-£213.09)

You can (hopefully) instantly see that there is work to do to find a profitable way to play these though I will admit, Willie Mullins making a decent profit regardless came as something of a surprise.

Now we look trainer by course (top 5 only in each case), starting with W P Mullins, of course!

W P Mullins by track (in profit order)

Track	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Punchestown	1309	313	23.91%	+£161.05	6	21
Cheltenham	661	78	11.80%	+£151.81	2	36
Clonmel	213	88	41.31%	+£97.91	5	9
Limerick	295	103	34.92%	+£66.95	8	9
Tipperary	147	55	37.41%	+£59.87	4	8
Totals	2625	637	24.27%	+£537.59	N/A	N/A

W P Mullins by race type

Race Type	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Chases	2610	657	25.17%	+£12.50	7	25
Hurdles	4423	1083	24.49%	+£350.78	7	33
Bumpers	1217	372	30.57%	-£33.01	7	21

W P Mullins by age (in profit order)

Age	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
4	826	246	29.78%	+£129.68	8	19
5	2350	655	27.87%	+£113.52	6	20
6	2028	554	27.32%	+£96.84	7	29
7	1311	316	24.10%	+£89.79	5	23
10	290	50	17.24%	+£30.16	3	23
Totals	6805	1821	26.80%	+£459.99	N/A	N/A

Conclusions: Some trainer! Seriously though, his strike rates are extraordinary full stop, but I did note that his profit goes down as the horses get older – interesting.

What you cannot do is combine all the better markers (Clonmel, hurdles four-year-olds for the best strike rate) as that comes up with 10 runners, four winners – and just £1.33 in profit!

Dan Skelton by track (in profit order)

Track	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Aintree	292	40	13.70%	+£128.69	3	22
Wetherby	310	89	28.71%	+£82.16	4	18
Ayr	112	29	25.89%	+£43.65	4	11
Leicester	85	25	29.41%	+£28.46	3	7
Uttoxeter	525	120	22.86%	+£21.94	5	20
Totals	1324	303	22.89%	+£304.90	N/A	N/A

Dan Skelton by race type

Race Type	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Chases	2338	452	19.33%	-£78.34	4	28
Hurdles	4614	814	17.64%	-£405.64	5	41
Bumpers	615	109	17.72%	-£80.81	4	35

Dan Skelton by age (in profit order)

Age	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
7	1235	251	20.32%	+£92.35	4	25
8	844	136	16.11%	+£53.88	3	33
3	151	28	18.54%	+£19.23	5	15
10	235	32	13.62%	+£7.14	2	28
12	35	5	14.29%	+£3.97	3	20
Totals	2500	452	18.08%	+£176.57	N/A	N/A

Conclusions:We can turn a profit from the Skelton team as above if we limit our bets to the best tracks and age groups, but the better money may be to LAY all his runners over hurdles, which would show a profit of £263.00 to a level £1 stake!

Better still, if you remove the top five profitable courses as listed above, you can make that an even better £612.51 by laying them. It is also interesting that his top profits by track apply to courses miles away from his home base, something else to keep in mind.

Paul Nicholls by track (in profit order)

Track	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Newbury	336	65	19.35%	+£93.57	4	25
Ascot	332	59	17.77%	+£75.17	5	16
Plumpton	92	29	31.52%	+£45.84	4	8
Wincanton	534	165	30.90%	+£35.69	9	16
Taunton	390	114	29.23%	+£24.67	7	11
Totals	1684	432	25.65%	+£274.94	N/A	N/A

Paul Nicholls by race type

Race Type	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Chases	2342	518	22.12%	-£164.42	5	29
Hurdles	2861	684	23.91%	+£91.72	5	32
Bumpers	474	121	25.53%	-£12.87	5	16

Paul Nicholls by age (in profit order)

Age	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
10	170	35	20.59%	+£45.37	4	31
4	699	185	26.47%	+£38.81	5	21
5	1484	377	25.40%	+£19.16	6	29
3	78	33	42.31%	+£15.81	5	7
6	1409	358	25.41%	+£10.59	5	27
Totals	3840	988	25.73%	+129.74	N/A	N/A

Conclusions: Considering the number of runners in any category the profits are fairly minimal.

That said it is still possible to turn a pretty penny or two by being selective regarding tracks at the very least, or equally importantly understanding that he fails to make a profit worth mentioning at any other track which came as a surprise to me.

Nicky Henderson by track (in profit order)

Track	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Worcester	146	37	25.34%	+£60.36	2	16
Newbury	424	89	20.99%	+£55.60	2	19
Ascot	262	55	20.99%	+£44.70	2	14
Ffos Las	74	25	33.78%	+£43.83	3	9
Punchestown	46	7	15.22%	+£35.22	2	14
Totals	952	213	22.37%	+£239.71	N/A	N/A

Nicky Henderson by race type

Race Type	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Chases	1255	290	23.11%	-£20.59	4	30
Hurdles	3032	673	22.20%	-£54.01	6	33
Bumpers	547	122	22.30%	-£53.60	3	30

Nicky Henderson by age (in profit order)

Age	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
4	623	179	28.73%	+£124.35	4	14
9	262	39	14.89%	+£96.24	3	24
11	55	3	5.45%	+£46.07	1	29
3	54	21	38.89%	+£2.48	3	6
* Only four profitable ages*
Totals	994	242	24.34%	+£269.14	N/A	N/A

Conclusions: I appreciate that any of the Nicky Henderson team compete at the highest level where winning races is that much harder, but I was shocked by the low strike rates for one of the best yards in the country.

None of the figures here will see any of us retiring soon but we can still eke out profits by being ultra selective with our bets from Seven Barrows.

Olly Murphy by track (in profit order)

Track	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Perth	146	42	28.77%	+£57.56	4	12
Wetherby	136	31	22.79%	+£54.75	2	29
Leicester	96	25	26.04%	+£49.23	3	22
Ffos Las	61	16	26.23%	+£34.35	3	11
Haydock	51	7	13.73%	+£28.13	2	23
Totals	490	121	24.69%	+£224.02	N/A	N/A

Olly Murphy by race type

Race Type	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
Chases	776	132	17.01%	-£111.17	4	31
Hurdles	2626	509	19.38%	-£63.74	5	38
Bumpers	336	74	22.02%	-£38.17	4	19

Olly Murphy by age (in profit order)

Age	Runners	Winners	Strike Rate	Profit/Loss to Betfair SP	Longest Winning Run (LWR)	Longest Losing Run (LLR)
10	108	19	17.59%	+£43.92	2	14
6	937	219	23.27%	+£43.59	5	26
7	589	114	19.35%	+£14.69	4	24
13	5	1	20.00%	+£0.05	1	4
*Only four profitable ages*
Totals	1639	353	21.54%	+£102.25	N/A	N/A

Conclusions: Olly Murphy still strikes me as a trainer on the up and as he gets better horses and owners with deeper pockets that trend may continue.

Interesting to see that his most profitable track is all the way up to Perth and I will be taking a second glance at any of his runners at that particular track.

Summary: If the top five trainers have strikes rates in the 20%s then what chance for the rest of them?

Seriously though, what we did find is the need to be even more selective, they may be top five on prize money won but that does not mean we can afford to follow them blindly.

Willie Mullins is an enigma – his numbers are off the chart pretty much full stop (though backing his hurdlers looks the simplest way to make money if you have the patience), and even though punters are fully aware of that fact, there is still money to be made. 

The other four listed trainers are a little more complicated but the figures above give solid clues for when to back their runners – and equally crucially, when to leave them alone.

 Sean Trivass is well-known freelance journalist who specialises in horse racing. His books can be found on Amazon here https://tinyurl.com/59t4dr7e while his weekly blog is updated Friday evening on his website at www.writesports.net. Any ideas for future articles – contact Sean via his website and he will investigate further!