Matt Russell – Micro Systems for September
It’s time for September’s Micro Systems. Working these out a month in advance seems to make the year go by even faster than it already is! It’s early August as I write(type) and August’s micro systems are a point apiece down on Place and Win after the first four days. Julys ended in profit but, as usual, with these first time tested live micro systems and indeed generally anyway with micro systems, it was a mixed bag.
In the “if only I hadn’t included that one” pot was Richard Fahey who had a dreadful month. His entire month was bad, not just our selections, so I guess that’s some small crumb of comfort for us. His wins for all flat runs were just 8 in total at 6.67% and 33 places at 27.27% so our 5% and 29% were pretty much the same as his entire effort.
Our win bets on O’Brien were also a washout.
That aside, things were generally very encouraging. We ended up with a 20% Win Strike rate and a 47% Place strike rate across all systems.
The Place side of things actually had a cracking month making a profit of 29.31 points! And that includes Fahey’s loss of 10.59 pts. On the win side of things, it was a case of just edging into profit, again, despite Fahey’s -31pts! Things could have looked much rosier on the win side but for a short head at Goodwood on the 29th. Morris Dancer was held up in rear in the Coral Vintage Stakes and Buick produced him late and it looked for all the world like he’d get there with a BSP of 24.47 but he just failed as Zavateri held on gamely. Such is the manner of micro systems that one like that can make a big difference.
All in all, though 30 points of profit whether it comes in wins or places is more than welcome. If Fahey’s month had been anywhere near breakeven then things would have been excellent but, as the saying goes, if my Uncle had a…
I’m inclined to carry most of these systems on to next year. Three finished in profit on both win and place and another four were in profit overall. Three others were marginal overall losses and I think worth another punt for next July. As you may gather, Fahey won’t be on my list. Christmas card or otherwise!
On to September it is then!
A month that is usually a tricky one to profit in as the Flat season starts to tail off and thoughts turn towards the National Hunt campaign.
First up then is our list of Trainers with 20 or more total wins across the three previous September’s.
And below is our list of jockeys who were profitable overall when riding for any of these trainers.
We’ll start with Charlie Appleby.
We’ll start here by selecting Just Buick and Costello as they are the only two with winners. Elsewhere rides are scarce and no winners amongst them so it’s fair to say that naturally Buick gets the best ride and Costello presumably the best of the rest.
A look at class and there is definitely a case here for removing group races. No doubt if we do, he’ll go and pick up a big winner but we’re going on past performance so on that we’ll remove them.
For the same reason we’ll also remove Maiden races. They could be different this year, after all it will be different horses but it suggests those, he runs at this time of year who are still maidens or having their first run are not the most successful, not that they are poor, but for the sake of this micro system we will remove them from the equation.
All of which leaves us with a very nice looking little micro system for September.
Here are the Horseracebase settings for the system.
Next one to look at is Andrew Balding.
The first thing that stands out is those horses having their first ever run! Just 1 win from 27, albeit at a handy 11.40 BSP.
This suggests, perhaps, that these races are just being used for gaining experience rather than any expectation of the horse winning.
A look at their odds shows that while they are not huge odds (nothing went off over 28/1) only one went off as favourite. Most were high single figures/low double figures.
Those who won their last race were also not profitable with just five winning from a possible thirty two.
A look at results over the last five races paints a clear picture.
Those who’ve either won or come second are far away the most successful of his September runners, suggesting I imagine, that if they haven’t performed this season yet then they aren’t about to now.
Just four wins from forty six runs (9%) compared to twenty four wins from seventy two (33.33%) for those who have finished in the first two.
Lastly, we’ll remove any horse that has not run for 76 days or more.
It’s a small sample, just six rides, but in the context of our micro system that accounts for almost 10% of the total runners.
That leaves us with the following micro system.
A bit of weaker year last year but still plenty of profit from a bet per day!
Here are the Horseracebase settings for the system.
Ralph Beckett next.
There are a few bits and pieces that could be removed but nothing concrete really other than Age restrictions.
It would seem that 2yo and 3yro+ are the two areas to concentrate our efforts.
This leaves us with a system that should see a bet every other day on average. A small profit in 2023 with very good profit either side of it.
Here are the Horseracebase settings for the system.
Nothing for George Boughey
Burke now.
A look at race type tells us to avoid Handicap races in September.
Just five wins from forty two for a 12 point loss compared with ten wins from just twenty six rides away from the Handicaps.
A look at the number of horses in the race who won last time out gives us our only filter other than jockeys. It’s just four runners but again with the small numbers we’re dealing with that is 15% of the total.
And that’s that for Burke! It looks like profit will depend very much on the price of the winners but it’s a very consistent strike rate across the three September’s!
Here are the Horseracebase settings for the system.
Clive Cox
Clive Cox is next and taking just those jockeys who have ridden a winner for him over the past three September’s gives us a micro system to run with.
|
The rest of this article is for Platinum members. You've just seen what our experts do with publicly available data — the Platinum section is where the specific angles, numbers and actionable conclusions live. Platinum members also get daily system selections in their inbox by 2am, tips from top tipsters, Win Big Golf selections, and access to 11 years of magazine archives. |
