Horseracing and the Lowdown on Trainer Changes
Horseracing and the Lowdown on Trainer Changes – Just recently the 9-year-old Bigbadjohn moved from the Rebecca Curtis yard to the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable but stayed in the same ownership and it was that horses recent Kempton win that got me thinking about whether there are profitable betting angles to be found from horses switching trainers.
This month’s article will examine the record of horses that switch stables on their first start for a new yard to see what difference a change of trainer can do to a horse’s performance.
With the start of the new flat season just a few weeks away I have for the purpose of this research just looked at results for the flat turf seasons from 2014 to 2017.
Stable Switchers – Introduction
There are many reasons a race horse switches a stable. They could be bought after a selling race or claimed from a claiming race. They could be sent to the sales by their present owners and sold to new owners or the horse’s present connections may decide that they wish to move their horse to a new trainer. Why this happens can be down to a number of reasons a disagreement between the trainer and the owner or maybe the owner thinks that their present handler isn’t getting the best of his or her horses.
Stable switchers are a fairly recent phenomenon.
When I started my punting journey owners didn’t move their horses from one trainer to another. Sure horses moved trainer when winning a selling race or where purchased out of claiming race or were sent to the sales. But we have started to see in recent years more owners move their horses from one trainer to another. Just a couple of seasons back in 2016 the largest owner in Irish jumps racing Gigginstown Stud moved 60 of their horses from Willie Mullins to a number of other yards.
Let us not forget the great Kauto Star began his career with Martin Pipe before moving on to Paul Nicholls or that the same trainer revived the career of Tidal Bay after his switch from Howard Johnson. When Gordon Elliott began his training career, success with stable switchers was an important part of his strategy. Silver Birch his, Grand National winner, came from Paul Nicholls and the likes of Bayan and Dirar also moved to his stable from other trainers. Although more owners are doing the switch more often, maybe not enough of them are doing it, as the change of scenery or training regime can indeed refresh the jaded horse that seems to have lost their form.
Trainer Change: General Stats
I shall begin by looking at some general stats for horses switching stable.
Since the start of the 2014 flat turf season, horses that had at least one career start produced the following set of results:
All Runners
339 winners from 4383 runners 8% -1195.4 A/E 0.86 (Profit/Loss to BSP -48.76)
Looking at those stats the change of trainer angle is not very positive one with just 8% of them winning on their next run. Even worse the Return on Investment (ROI) is -27.27 which means you are effectively losing 27p for every £1 invested and the A/E shows these horses are also not going off at a value price either.
Handicaps & Non-Handicaps
Breaking it down between handicap and non-handicap races produced the following:
Handicaps – 244 winners from 3251 runners 8% -720.32 A/E 0.87 (Profit/Loss to BSP + 176.95)
Non-handicaps – 95 winners from 1132 runners 8% – 475.08 A/E 0.84 (Profit/Loss to BSP – 225.71)
Once again there are no real positives when it comes to handicap or non handicap races. Indeed the ROI for non handicap means you are losing almost 42p for every £1 invested and 22p for every £1 invested in handicap races.
Age
Now let’s look at age. I have divided the results into 2-year-old, 3-year-old and 4-year-old + horses:
2-year-old – 14 winners from 178 runners 8% -113.06 A/E 0.68 (Profit/Loss to BSP -107.07)
3-year-old – 128 runners from 1509 runners 8% -218.54 A/E 0.94 (Profit/Loss to BSP +327.06)
4-year old+ – 197 runners from 2696 runners 7% -863.8 A/E 0.83 (Profit/Loss to BSP -268.75)
Looking at the age stats, backing all juveniles would have lost you a whopping 63p for every £1 invested and you would have lost just over 32p on the older horses. The one slight positive is with the 3-year-olds. The A/E figure isn’t much below where it should be and the loss of 14p for every £1 invested is much lower than for the other age groups.
Odds SP:
I have divided the odds criteria into three:
2/1 & under – 47 winners from 126 runners 37% -16.06 A/E 0.87 (Profit/Loss to BSP -14.08)
9/4 to 9/1 – 183 winners from 1233 runners 15% -102.34 A/E 0.94 (Profit/Loss to BSP +40.26)
10/1 & above – 97 winners from 2992 runners 3% -1084 A/E 0.72 (Profit/Loss to BSP -83.53)
Again not many positives to be gleaned from the horses SP either. Those going off at odds of 2/1 & under still lost punters just over 12p in the £1. But backing those going off at odds between 9/4 & 9/1, actually perform slightly better in terms of ROI with a loss of 8p in the £1. If you were backing all those that were sent off at odds of 10/1 & above you would have lost just over 36p for every £1 invested.
Favourites (Clear)
54 winners from 152 runners 36% +18.23 A/E 1.04 (Profit/Loss to BSP +22.08)
Favourites are a positive as far as the stats are concerned with a decent A/E and even a small profit made to industry SP.
Last Race Placing
1st – 42 winners from 386 runners 11% -27.93 A/E 0.91 (Profit/Loss to BSP +99.91)
Those horses that won their last race and have changed trainers would have lost punters 7p in the £1.
Days Since Last Run
31 to 75 Days – 83 winners from 819 runners 10% -127.87 A/E 1.05 (Profit/Loss to BSP +62.57)
Horses returning from a lay off between 31 to 75 days perform better than any other absence. They slightly perform better than the market has been expecting but even so backing all such runners would have led to a loss of 15p in the £1.
Seller- Last Race
15 winners from 203 runners 7% -84.5 A/E 0.73 (Profit/Loss to BSP -71.03)
Some more negative stats for horses whose last race was a seller with a loss of over 41p in the £1
Claimer – Last Race
22 winners from 230 runners 10% -26 A/E 1.12 (Profit/Loss to BSP +13.07)
Horses having their first run for a new yard having run in a claiming race on their last start actually are performing 12% better than the betting market expects but are still losing 11p in every £1.
Handicap race – Non Handicap Last Race
66 winners from 965 runners 7% -197.41 A/E 0.85 (Profit/Loss to BSP +88.01).
Non-Handicap race – Handicap last run
22 winners from 234 runners 9% -82.78 A/E 0.94 (Profit/Loss to BSP -44.28).
Once again some more poor stats with losses of 31p in every £1 for those runners who raced in a non-handicap on their last start and a 24p loss for those horses that were running a handicap last time.
All-Weather Last Race
85 winners from 1346 runners 6% -407.94 A/E 0.82 (Profit/Loss to BSP -99.42).
Backing all those horse switching from an all-weather race last time out to turf would have lost 30p in every £.
So there isn’t too much in the above stats for punters looking to find profitable angles from horses switching trainers. The only potential angle of interest would be to focus in on the following criteria:
Race Class: 4 & 5
Horse Age: 3-year-olds only
Career Runs: 3 or 4 only
These runners produced in the period under research, the following set of results:
24 winners from 186 runners 13% +126.5 A/E 1.34 (Profit/Loss to BSP + 361.62)
Granted we are dealing with a small sample size. The ROI is good at 68% but it contained losing runs of 20, 21 & 29. So backing all such runners would require plenty of patience, given the inevitable long losing runs.
Trainer Change: Individual Trainers
There are plenty of trainers who are just not very good at their job and a switch to this bunch of trainers can be considered a downgrade to the horse’s chance. These trainers put their horses into races that they can’t win, they run their horses on the wrong ground or over the wrong sort of distance and they don’t seem to be able to keep their horses in form for more than the odd race or two. You need very good odds for horse if you are backing any of their runners.
As with all trainer stats the record of individual trainers varies tremendously. Some trainers have great stats when taking on someone else's horse, whilst other trainers rarely win under these circumstances.
Masters Of The Switch:
Here is my list of trainers who punters should keep onside when they inherit a horse from another trainer. These are trainers that are able to eke out enough improvement from the horse to enable it to win on its stable debut.
You will often here pundits say that Mick Appleby has a good record with horses that he’s got from another trainer and on this occasion they would be right, as he has had 17 winners from 66 runners 26% +78.52 A/E 1.57 (Profit to BSP +110.21).
Other trainers worth keeping onside include:
Ger Lyons – 8 winners from 18 runners 44% +25 A/E 2.43 (Profit to BSP +27.92).
Adrian Keatley – 5 winners from 23 runners 22% +21 A/E 1.87 (Profit to BSP +35.65).
Jessica Harrington – 4 winners from 15 runners 27% +12 A/E 2.42 (Profit to BSP +18.47).
Johnny Murtagh – 4 winners from 13 runners 31% +39.5 A/E 3.13 (Profit to BSP +82.59).
William Haggas – 4 winners from 8 runners 50% +9.08 A/E 1.9 (Profit to BSP +10.91).
Charlie Fellowes – 4 winners from 17 runners 24% +8.65 A/E 1.54 (Profit to BSP +11.06).
Jo Hughes – 3 winners from 10 runners 30% +19.5 A/E 3.57 (Profit to BSP +24.85).
Luca Cumani – 3 winners from 11 runners 27% +5.63 A/E 1.58 (Profit to BSP +6.73).
Gordon Elliott – 3 winners from 14 runners 21% +35.63 A/E 2.33 (Profit to BSP +84.54).
George Scott – 3 winners from 11 runners 27% +11.33 A/E 1.57 (Profit to BSP +12.84).
Besides the stand out trainer Michael Appleby, a few Irish trainers on the above list with Ger Lyons runners worth noting.
Trainers To Avoid:
Just as there are those trainers who are adept at winning with a horse on his stable debut there are trainers who have a different modus operandi. Here are some notable trainers to be cautious of:
Ruth Carr – 0 winners from 41 runners 8 placed 20%
Jim Goldie – 0 winners from 22 runners 2 placed 9%
Micky Hammond – 0 winners from 21 runners 1 placed 5%
Philip Kirby – 0 winners from 21 runners 4 placed 19%
Ian Williams – 0 winners from 19 runners 3 placed 16%
Stuart Williams – 0 winners from 18 runners 0 placed
Some surprising names among that group I wouldn’t have expected Ruth Carr not to have had a winner or for trainers like Ian Williams & Stuart Williams also not to have had stable switcher go in at the first attempt.
Summary
An 8% win strike rate, low A/E and a loss of 27% indicates that a change of trainer can be considered a negative. Indeed there are few positives to be had although there is one trainer switcher angle which looks worthy of further research, and it’s the horse that starts clear favourite which shows a profit of 15%, which is better than the average favourite. As ever the main angle looks to be focus on those trainers who are adept at getting a new recruit to win on their first run of which Michael Appleby is at present the ‘King of The Switchers’.
Well plenty of stats for you to digest there but I hope you have found it both interesting & informative and for some of you it may act as a further stimulus to look into the area of trainer changes.
As ever it worth bearing in mind that past results are not necessarily a guide to future performance. History does repeat itself but often it doesn’t.
Until next time!