Micro Systems for June
It’s time for June’s micro systems but first, as always, we’ll take a quick look back to see what happened with the ones that have just finished. In this case it’s the micro systems for April.
There were 50 bets in total across the month with two potential systems not registering any qualifiers.
Three systems finished in profit on both Win and Place. The Jamin / Burke system the pick of them with a 19.48 points profit, recording 2 wins from 6. Mullins / Townend and Doyle / Watson both returned small profit from just 3 qualifiers apiece.
Elsewhere the Lordan / Lupini systems made a 1 point profit on wins from 4 bets but had a loss on places whilst the Derham / O’Brien system did the complete opposite garnering no wins from 7 selections but placing in three of them for a decent 4.53 points of place profit from those 7 bets.
The likes of Muscutt / Ferguson and Mitchell / Clover who both had just 1 qualifier and the McMonagle / J O’Brien and Eaves / Ryan pairings had no qualifiers for the month, so the jury is still out on those.
Murphy / Bowen was the most disappointing one. They had the most qualifiers (14) but returned a 4 point loss on both wins and places.
All in all, then, three systems proved themselves in live testing whilst another five are ones I will test again next April due to the lack of qualifiers.
Time to turn our attention to June now then and see what we can find.
This month I’m going to shake things up a bit and look at trainers who do well at a track or selection of tracks where there are meetings in June.
First off let’s take a look at who the top Flat trainers during June have been based off the last five years of data. Below are the top 20.
We’ll start with William Haggas, who has had almost 100 June winners over the past five years.
If we look first at track location you can see there are four areas where he has done much better strike rate wise than the rest.
We’ll check out the worst one’s first though to see if there are still individual tracks that he has performed well at.
Most of them are showing losses and lower strike rates. There are a couple worth adding in though. Thirsk and Lingfield.
From our strong areas there is just Musselburgh (1 for 7) and Carlisle (0 for 6) and Chester (2 for 13) to remove
From there we can remove all novice races as although he has a 25% strike rate on these they make an overall loss during the five years.
As you can also see below his class 6 runners are massively out of sync with the rest so we’ll remove those as well.
This leaves us with a rather nice looking system to live test this June.
Longest losing run – Wins: 6
Longest losing run – Places: 6
We’ll take a look at Aidan O’Brien now.
The tracks he has a good June record at are Curragh, Down Royal, Epsom, Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Limerick, Listowel, Naas and Navan.
If we also exclude Handicaps, which, although he has a decent strike rate is lower than other race types and his profit is minimal considering the number of runners he has had.
This still leaves a few too many bets so we’ll filter out a couple more things.
His 4yo+ races are few and with only one win. There’s an opportunity to lose 28 runners in a curious stat.
If his runners in June last raced at Leopardstown they have won just 3 from those 28 making an 18 point loss.
For Aidan O’Brien that is a very low strike rate and makes me think there is something to that rather than just a bit of a statistical oddity.
Those 28 have been spread across the five years and have made a loss in every single one of them. They’ve raced at 8 different tracks and none of the tracks show a profit.
Ryan Moore has ridden 10 for just 1 winner. That is a real strange set of statistics. We’ll remove them more because we are reducing bet numbers but it’s a sizeable sample and it does look like it’s a recurring theme as well.
This brings us down to a system that should throw up around 30 bets for the month.
Bets have actually ranged from a low of 20 to a high of 40. Strike rates from 25% to 41.67% and profits from just over 8 points to a high of 30.76 points.
Place bets don’t really look worth doing because each year has ranged from -1 point to a high of just under 2 points.
Longest Losing Run – Wins: 14
Longest Losing Run – Places: 11
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