National Hunt Final Quarter Micro Systems
As the National Hunt season starts let’s see if we can get a few little systems going for the last quarter of the year. I’m going to look at courses with the most races during the last quarter of the year based on 2022 to 2024 inclusive. Those are as follows:
For these courses I will look to see who the top winning trainer is at each course in this period. Then I will see if we can get a system for each at the corresponding course. The table shows those courses with over 100 races.
It should be noted that by the time this article is out in the magazine that part of October will of course already be gone but that shouldn’t hopefully effect things too much and still leave plenty of selections to come.
We’ll start at Chepstow.
We can see Paul Nicholls clearly has the most wins here and by some margin. He’s a long way out of being profitable though but we’ll take a look.
We’ll concentrate on the two jockeys that are highlighted. This improves our starting position to the following.
It would seem like Novice Chases, Handicap and otherwise, can be avoided.
At this point on further inspection, as you will see in a moment, we are going to split this into two systems. One for National Hunt Flat races (Bumpers) and one for the rest. The reason being is below. A look at how long they’ve been off the track now. There are two things that stand out here. Those horses that haven’t had a run for 241 days or more have drawn a blank. Meanwhile those who have been off the track a while but likely ran towards the end of the last season seem to come back with a bang.
This table excludes those horses that have yet to run. Whilst looking at those and in particular the missing seven winners from our previous total I found this.
This is the data for NH Flat races in respect of previous career runs. First time out in this period of the year is seemingly a very solid tactic for Nicholls!
So here is our first one, a micro system for Nicholls at Chepstow in NH Flat races.
It’s time to get back to the rest of our data now. Let’s take a look at how tough the fields are in terms of last time out winners.
As always with these systems it’s small amounts of data but as you can see in the table above when the number of horses in the race who won last time out go beyond two his record is just 1/6, a 16% strike rate compared with over 40% for 0 to 2.
Wearing a tongue tie would seem to be a bit of a negative as well producing just a 25% strike rate, compared to 54% without and with average winning BSP odds of just 2.23.
A look at their previous race now and with the usual caveat of small sample size, those who didn’t complete last time out have failed to win.
All of which leaves us with an additional micro system to the NH Flat one for the rest of his runners.
We’ll take a look at Wetherby next.
We’ll look at Murphy as he has a nice profit there and looking at the average BF win column it didn’t all come from one large winner.
The starting point is not bad at all. A losing year in 2023 and just the one winner to play with but the other two years are both nicely in profit.
The main stand out stat is that the use of a tongue tie has not produced a winner.
We can see below that all of the winners had a first four finish last time out or were debutants.
These couple of filters leave us with a very nice looking micro system that has hit a 50% strike rate the last three years, albeit from just 2 bets in 2023.
Let’s take a look at Uttoxeter now.
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