Statman Reborn – Episode 1
By the time this article goes to post, the Flat season on turf will be starting to wind down to a natural conclusion, and the jumpers will be returning to full training as we all look forward to seeing our old friends after a summer off in the paddocks for most.
The King George at Kempton is a couple of months away, with all roads after that seemingly leading to Cheltenham in March, but how can we eke a little extra profit between now and those major meetings?
As always (you will hopefully soon get used to the concept), an idea is born in my tiny brain, closely followed by statistical analysis, and the results are then laid out for you to use, or not, as you see fit – so here we go…
Concept:
The bigger yards such Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Alan King, et al have bigger fish to fry later in the season and aren’t necessarily firing on all cylinders early in the year.
Other, perhaps lesser-known handlers, see this as an opportunity to make hay while the sun shines (literally), but that is no more than an idea – and we will hopefully be talking select bets, not too many of them – and a decent historical profit that can then give us a pattern to follow over the years ahead.
The Data:
October, November, and December are the months we will be looking at – after that it’s all systems go for the bigger yards.
I will be breaking the data down by race type and then by month to see if we can find ourselves an edge, be that backing or laying.
Data used is limited to the last 10 years (earlier data is less relevant in this particular case), and all profits are recorded to both Betfair SP (assuming 2% commission paid) and Industry SP where appropriate.
A minimum of 10 runners per month (average), 10 or more winners, and a minimum 10% strike rate are also needed to be included to attempt to avoid one winner skewing our figures.
All races are included unless annotated differently, for both the United Kingdom and Ireland for clarification.
The Presentation:
I am a massive lover of tables as they put all the info in front of you to do with as you see fit.
Each section will be clearly labelled, starting with an overview before breakdowns to make the profit percentages better (or worse), and with a brief summary below.
No need to go any deeper than the top 5 per category as I find this number easier for us all to work with.
October to November inclusive, Chases, Hurdles, and Bumpers (National Hunt Flat Races) combined (By Betfair SP Profit to £1 stake).
Summary: Not a bad starting point in my opinion, though the gulf between SP losses and Betfair SP profit is a stark reminder of where the value lies on these bets, though other exchanges are obviously available.
Those looking for less bets may want to focus on trainers 1,2, and 5, giving them an average of about 14 bets a month for October, November, and December each season, a profit of £1863.55, and a return on investment of over 432% total or 43.24% per annum (average).
However, if we look a fraction deeper, we then find:
Hurdles Only
Summary: Similar results to the overall chart, but with the addition of Evan Williams to the fray at the expense of Hughie Morrison.
The Betfair SP to Industry SP gulf remains.
Chases Only
Summary: A poor return on investment of a fraction over 30%, or 1% per month fails to inspire me personally, but profit is profit I suppose.
Bumpers (National Hunt Flat races) Only
Summary: The headline figure may fail to impress but look deeper and we have a Return On Investment figure of 54.27% over the 10 years and 30 months in total – or close to 2% per month, nice work if you can get it. Having looked at this with all races, common sense suggests we now split into handicaps and non-handicap. Will that give us anyone new to add to the list?
All National Hunt Races October, November, and December – Non-Handicaps Only
Summary: More confirmation of the earlier figures than anything new and exciting.
All National Hunt Races October, November, and December – Handicaps Only
Summary: Good to see Venetia Williams topping this list, but its Eoin McCarthy and Donald Whillans that catch my eye, each with a return on investment of over 100% in handicaps, which is a remarkable achievement.
Hurdle Races Non-Handicaps Only
Summary: Younger trainers Ben Pauling and Sam Thomas join our list for the first time here and the last named boasts a return on investment of over 200% - impressive.
Hurdle Races - Handicaps Only
Summary: Eoin Christopher McCarthy and Donald Whillans are the standouts for me here with solid profits from relatively few runners.
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