National Hunt Horses and Their Ideal Conditions
As you read this, the new National Hunt season will be starting to catch the attention of some punters. In this article I am going to share with you a selection of horses that you should look out under certain conditions this coming NH season. Trends horses if you like.
Now we know that humans have certain ‘traits’, and it is the same for horses when it comes to horse racing. Some horses seem to fit a specific type of performance or trends pattern. This may be down to their nature, their size, their stride length, their speed, their stamina – it may be partly down to how they have been trained and looked after.
There are numerous types of performance patterns / trends – certain horses prefer a certain type of track be it a tight track, galloping track, stiff track etc. Other horses prefer running in small fields, while other prefer the hurly burly of bigger fields. There are some more well-known patterns including going ones with some horses preferring firmer going, others softer. Some horses seem to thrive at different times of the year, while others may prefer going left-handed, some prefer running right-handed. Most horses have a preferred distance or distance range, some horses require long breaks between races, others thrive on racing more often. Some horses enjoy tackling bigger fences, others prefer smaller obstacles. The list goes on.
Having now set the scene, it is time to share some horse performance patterns / trends with you. Data is taken up to 24th August 2024 when this piece was researched. Ten horses have made my list and hopefully there are several names that you are not that familiar with.
Faivoir
This 9yo is trained by Dan Skelton and his overall career record reads a solid looking 10 wins from 30 starts. His key performance patterns are as follows:
1. Acts on all going having won on good, good to soft, soft and heavy.
2. Faivoir has an excellent record in small fields (6 runners or less) scoring 6 times from 11 races.
3. Is 6 wins from 9 when Bridget Andrews is on board. Harry Skelton has 4 wins from 15; all other jockeys combined are 0 from 6.
4. He seems to be versatile track wise having won at eight different courses.
Hang In There
Emma Lavelle trains this 10yo who plies his trade in handicap chases. His career record reads 12 wins from 37. Here are some key trends:
1. Hang in There has proved better on a firmer surface. On good or firmer he has won 10 from 24; on good to soft or softer his record is 2 from 13.
2. Has a very good record when taking the race on from the front. When taking the early lead, he has won 7 times from 15 starts with a further four placed efforts.
3. He seems to carry weight well in handicap races. When carrying 11st 9lb or more he has registered 4 wins from 10. When carrying lower weights in handicaps he is only 1 from 12.
4. He has a good record in small fields (6 runners or less) scoring 9 times from 18. With 7 or more runners he has scored 3 times from 19.
I See You Well
This handicapper is now 11 so it is likely that he has just one or two more seasons left in him. He has not got into the winner’s enclosure since December 2022 but has finished second in two of his last three starts so hopefully another win is just around the corner. There are some decent trends and patterns to share:
1. He has a good record in small fields (6 runners or less) scoring 6 times from 16 attempts. In fields of 7 to 9 runners he has 3 wins from 16, but with 10 or more he has just registered 1 win from 26 attempts.
2. Is much better racing on left-handed tracks. On left-handed courses he has 7 wins from 31, on right-handed courses he is just 1 win from 23.
3. I See You Will has been much better when returned to the track within 30 days. Under such conditions he is 10 wins from 37. With breaks of 31 days or more he has 0 wins from 21.
4. He is a regular visitor to the Sussex track of Plumpton where he has had 6 wins from 16 starts.
Hiconic
This 7yo has been a dual-purpose horse running over jumps and on the level. However, she has not run on the flat since May 2022. Her career record currently reads 7 wins from 33 starts (with a further 8 placed). There are some interesting performance trends for her:
1. She is 7 from 23 in NH racing, 0 from 10 on the flat/all weather.
2. Hiconic has a good record when returned to the track within 30 days scoring 6 times from 17 runs. With breaks of 31 days or more she has secured only 1 win from 16.
3. She has secured 7 wins and 7 placed from 24 on left-handed tracks. She has raced just 8 times on right-handed ones but is 0 wins, 1 placed from 8.
4. All her 7 wins have come on ground officially described as ‘good’. She is 0 from 12 on any other surface/going.
5. In National Hunt races over distances between 2 miles and 2 miles 1 furlong she has won 6 of her 16 starts.
Bollingerandkrug
This 9yo gelding is trained by Lucinda Russell. He has four performance patterns worth sharing with you:
1. All his wins have come at Kelso (6 wins from 13, with a further 3 placed). At all other courses he is 0 from 10 with just 1 placed effort.
2. He is a successful front runner having won 4 from 6 when leading from the start. When he has not led early, he is 2 from 17.
3. He has secured 6 wins from 13 with 3 placed when priced 8/1 or shorter; 0 wins from 10 with 1 placed effort at bigger prices.
4. When beaten by 10 lengths or more LTO, Bollingerandkrug has rarely bounced back next time winning just 1 race in 10 attempts. When winning / beaten less than 10 lengths LTO he is an impressive 5 wins from 13.
Concetto
This bay gelding is 7 and lightly raced having had just 15 starts. He has only two patterns to share but both are strong:
1. All four wins have come when he has led or contested the lead early. (4 wins from 5).
2. All four wins have come between February and April (4 from 8).
Jai Froid
This 11yo notched up two more wins last season and given the right conditions could go in again this coming season. Here are his strongest performance patterns:
1. He definitely prefers to race on a soft surface. On soft or heavy ground, he has won 7 races from 18 starts; on good to soft or firmer he is 0 from 9.
2. He does better the further he races. In races of 3 miles or more he has won 6 times from 15. At shorter distances of under 3 miles, he is 1 win from 12.
3. He enjoys racing at the turn of the year with his January to March record reading an excellent 6 wins from 11. Just 1 win from 16 races though between April and December.
Bushypark
This 10yo gelding switches between handicap chases and hurdle races, and here are his most notable performance patterns.
1. He has won 5 races from 6 starts in December.
2. He has visited Haydock on 4 occasions and has won 3 times.
3. He acts on softer ground, but his heavy ground record is eye-catching with 4 wins from 9 runs.
4. Bushypark has an excellent record when he is well fancied. When priced 9/4 or shorter he has won 6 times from just 8 runs.
Captain Claude
This 7yo gelding is trained by Anthony Honeyball and has had only 17 runs but there are some strong performance patterns emerging:
1. Smaller fields seem to suit with 3 wins from 4 in races of 6 runners or less; 4 wins from 6 if we go to 7 runners or less. With 8 runners or more he is 0 wins from 11.
2. Seems to go well at Fontwell Park with 3 wins and 1 placed effort from 6 starts.
3. He likes a softer surface with 3 wins from 5 on heavy. 1 win from 10 under all other ground conditions.
Elvis Mail
This 10yo grey is trained by Nick Alexander and has the following strong performance patterns:
1. He has run better in Scotland with 8 wins from 21 (Ayr 3/8; Kelso 5/13). In England his return has been just 1 win from 13.
2. He goes very well fresh. Has won 4 times from 7 on his seasonal debut. He is generally better with a break with his record when off the track for more than 5 weeks reading 7 wins from 17 (4 placed); when off the track for 5 weeks or less his record reads 2 wins from 17 with just one further placed effort.
3. The market tends to tell a story. When priced 4/1 or shorter he has 7 wins from 14; when priced 9/2 or bigger he is 2 wins from 20.
So, there you have it – ten horses that given the right conditions should offer punters good value this coming National Hunt season. When you get the right conditions for these runners they should offer you excellent value.
David Renham
