Cheekpieces (Part Two)
In part one of this article, we discovered that Irish Handicap Hurdles were producing a good place profit for horses wearing cheekpieces and in particular those who were between 10/1 and 50/1 ISP in their previous race. Furthermore, those who had a forecast price between 6/1 and 33/1 for the forthcoming race and who also had an Official Rating that was between 10 lower and 4 higher than their last run were the most profitable runners.
A closer look at individual trainers highlighted PJ Rothwell.
We’ll take a more in depth look at his record now with our initial filters in place.
As you can see in the table above, he has profited every one of the last five years on places at the BSP Place price. The ROI is incredible over all at 73.27%! As an aside wins are in profit too but down in no small part to two big winners.
Back to places then.
He’s picked them up at a very good 30.87%. Running the results in a spreadsheet shows us that at the BSP Place odds we could have expected him to pick up 12 places (Actual figure is 11.95).
As you can see, he has in fact picked up 46 places! The average place odds are 6.77. That’s naturally raised a little by the outlying high odds, so a more accurate figure is the median of 5.20 with which we’d need a 19% place strike rate to break even. He’s hitting 30.87%.
Let’s have a closer look to see if there are any other filters we can apply and get a little system here.
There are quite a few jockeys who haven’t record a place win but I’m loathe to remove any of them because the biggest win of all was from a solo ride to date.
The only real valid filter is from the number of horses in the current race who won last time out.
If there are two or more then we get the very contrasting overall figures…
The full five year table is below.
This give us a nice little yearly micro system that should give us around 2-6 bets each month.
This year for example the spread is as follows: January (5), March (6), April (3), May (2), June (2), July (6) and August (3). Just February with no bets so far this year.
The most recent winner was in August with Damoso winning at Ballinrobe with place odds of 3.84.
Back to our base setting now of Cheekpieces worn and years 2021-2024.
We’ll look now at jockeys and trainers and compare how they do riding horses with cheekpieces versus riding a horse with no headgear to see if there are any stark differences anywhere and see who performs best.
Trainers first and we’ll use a minimum of 500 qualifiers without headgear and then compare various stats to their record with the use of cheekpieces
From the list I’ve then removed all those trainers who’ve had less than 20 wins with cheekpieces as we want those who use it at least fairly regularly and have had some success with it.
After that I’ve removed all those with an A/E of less than 1.00 as this suggests they are not winning as regularly as they should based on their odds which doesn’t suggest the cheekpieces are of any real benefit and particularly not in terms of finding some value.
Next, I’ve removed all those who have a lower strike rate with cheekpieces than they do with no headgear.
The final trimming of our trainers is all those who have an A/E with Cheekpieces are less than their A/E with no headgear. Again, suggesting there’s no real benefit.
This leaves us with 26 trainers.
The first table is simply a list of what % of total runs the horse wearing cheekpieces accounts for when totalling no headgear and cheekpieces together. Note: I’ve ignored all other headgear use.
There’s a few approaching half of their runners which is somewhat surprising I have to admit. There’s over half though who use it less than a quarter of the time and even a couple who use it very sparingly.
Let’s now look at what % of their wins the cheekpiece runners account for (again using just cheekpieces and no headgear runners) and compare whether the % of wins achieved is bigger than the % of rides with cheekpieces.
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