UK Courses – The Top Ten Front Running Biases in Handicap Chases (2m1f or less)
In this article I am going to discuss what I currently believe to be the 10 courses with the strongest front running biases in handicap chases over the distance of 2 miles 1 furlong or less. Of course, I do appreciate that there will be people who may disagree with my order, or indeed the courses I have on the list, but ultimately all 10 biases will be clear to see once sharing the numbers.
Data has been taken from 1/1/2018 to 31/7/2025 with only handicap races of 5 or more runners considered. For a C&D to count, there would have needed to be at least 25 races during the timeframe. I have chosen handicaps because they give more robust and reliable data for this type of research.
The stats gathered for this piece have come from the Geegeez website (www.geegeez.co.uk) which has some excellent run style data which can be found in their ‘Pace Analyser’ and their ‘Query Tool’. Their pace / run style data is split into four specific categories – Led, Prominent, Mid Division and Held Up, and here is a breakdown of what they essentially mean:
Led – horses that lead early, usually within the first furlong or so; or horses that dispute or fight for the early lead.
Prominent – horses that lay up close to the pace just behind the leader(s);
Mid Division – horses that race mid pack;
Held up – horses that are held up at, or near the back of the field.
The ‘led’ stats are going to be the ‘driver’ for this article as this provides the stats for front runners, although I will share data for the other run styles too to help build the whole run style picture at any given course.
Before starting the list, a key point to mention is that all run style groups do not have the same number of runners within each group. We are always going to get more hold up horses than front runners for example, so the best way to allow for that in our calculations is to work out the win percentage within each specific group. If instead, we just worked out the percentage of races won by each group this would give us an inaccurate set of results.
A second point worth noting is that we only know these run styles after the race has started so the profit / loss figures would be based on us having a crystal ball in tip-top order!
Having said that it still gives us useful information when trying to determine biases.
OK it is time for me to share my top 10. I am going to go in reverse order starting with:
10. Cheltenham
Below is a results breakdown for the four run styles from the given parameters at the Cotswolds track:
As can be seen, if we had known pre-race who would be leading early or indeed tracking the pace then profits would have been coming out of our ears!
Front runners clearly have the best record in terms of win percentage within their group, and they have comfortably offered the best value.
There were also some near misses for front runners with six second places including one at a BSP price of 32.98.
Hold up horses have really struggled which is another indicator when trying to determine the potential strength of any front running bias.
9. Hexham
Hexham has long been a course where front running chasers have had a decent edge across all distances. Here are the splits for this shorter distance:
The A/E index for front runners is the lowest of the ten courses, but there definitely is a clear edge for horses to race up with the pace as the prominent figures help show. The poor hold up stats also give more credence to that fact.
The bias though has not been as strong in recent years, and this is something to keep an eye on. For the record I could have easily swapped Cheltenham and Hexham’s positions in the list around.
8. Huntingdon
The led figures are strong with the third highest A/E index with the top ten. However, the win percentage for hold ups is one of the highest which stops me putting this course higher on the list. There is a still a potent front running edge though.
7. Perth
Up to Scotland now, and Perth.
Perth handicap chases have seen very small field sizes generally with only three races with 9 or more runners. This helps explain the higher percentages for each run style.
It should be noted that from a limited sample of 11 races, when the going has been good to soft or softer, 8 of the wins went to the horse that took the early lead. The other three wins came from the prominent racers group.
6. Leicester
A solid front running bias at the Leicester track although on soft or heavy ground it seems to be more of a level playing field. There have been poor returns for mid div runners and hold up horses.
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