The Statman – Hunting For The Winners
This month we are going to try something a little different and the bad news is, it means a touch more work for you (sorry about that).
Now we all have very different ways of trying to hunt down some winners, but many of us look at the “holy trinity” of going, distance and class as a very sensible starting point.
I thought it made good sense (and something a little different) to have a look at horses moving class – be that upwards or downward, how they get on, and whether particular trainers are better (or worse) at placing their horses than others, so off we jolly well go.
All you need to do is cross refer to the tables below and look at the race title today (the Class of the race today is in the race title usually in brackets) then have a look at to see if any of the trainers listed have a runner.
If they do, look at the class the horse last ran in to see if it has gone up a class (or more), or down a class (or more) to draw your own conclusions.
Data used is from January 1st 2016 to September 6th 2025, Flat Turf, Flat All-Weather, chases, hurdles and National Hunt Flat races (bumpers) UK only (it is difficult/close to impossible to gauge the class of the majority of Irish races sadly) – to make life easier we will list them one at a time – minimum of 50 runners to qualify.
Flat Turf Only – Horses dropped exactly one grade (example, Class 2 to Class 3, Class 5 to Class 6) – Top 5 by profit to Betfair Starting Price (BSP)
Conclusion: Hopefully anyone unsure about this concept is now sitting up and taking notice?
A Return on Investment of over 155% is better than I could ever have wished for, a one in 10 strike rate is acceptable in my eyes – though be warned, we do also have the obligatory losing runs and will need to manage out betting banks accordingly.
Flat All-Weather Only – Horses dropped exactly one grade (example, Class 2 to Class 3, Class 5 to Class 6) – top 5 by profit to Betfair Starting Price (BSP)
Conclusion: A slightly better strike rate at over 11% but a lower return investment of “only” 121.34% - not to be sniffed at, with the only surprise to me being more bets on the all-weather than there had been on the Flat turf!
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