The Statman – The Grand National Meeting
No book for me to push this month (sadly), but at the time of writing I don’t know the results for Cheltenham or how well last month’s article got on, so we will go again for the Grand National meeting – I’m a glutton for punishment, hopefully you are too?
I am going to assume the vast majority here are regular readers, and I don’t want to insult anyone’s intelligence so in simple terms the concept is that certain types of horses win certain races. For that reason, I am going back through the last 20 years at the Aintree Festival looking for the profiles of horses who have won the big races in the past, listing their attributes (age, ratings, odds etc) in success percentage order – after that it’s all up to you to apply them in order until you reach a shortlist you are happy with – if history repeats itself then there is every chance the winner in sitting there waiting for you.
I am going to cherry-pick the better races (we don’t have room to cover them all), and add any interesting statistics regarding trainers and jockeys for each race covered – I suspect in advance the Grand National will be a nightmare statistically, but I will cover it anyway!
Best of luck one and all….
Thursday 9th April
Boodles Anniversary Novices Hurdle
Looking at the last 20 years (19 runnings) as I will with each race, and the following are historical facts to take into account:
- All 19 winners came home in the first nine on their previous start (100%).
- All 19 winners had an official rating of 130 or above (100%).
- All 19 winners had raced in the last 90 days (100%).
- All 19 winners had raced at least twice this season (100%).
- None of the 19 winners had raced in the last 15 days (100%).
- 18 of the 19 winners were priced at 16/1 or shorter at the off (95%).
- 18 of the 19 winners had an official rating of 135 or above (95%).
- 18 of the 19 winners came from the first six in the betting at the off (95%).
- 17 of the 19 winners came home in the first five last time out (89%).
- 17 of the 19 winners had an official rating of 138 or above (89%).
- 17 of the 19 winners came from the first five in the betting at the off (89%).
- 17 of the 19 winners had raced in the last 60 days (89%).
Additional comment:
- Trainer Alan King has been responsible for four winners and one additional place from seven runners (57% win 71% placed).
- Willie Mullins has trained three winners of this race and another placed from six runners (50% win 67% placed).
- Trainer P J Hobbs and J White have won this twice from six attempts and placed with two others (33% win 67% placed).
- Trainer Nicky Henderson has won this four times from 19 starters and placed with four others (21% winners 42% placed).
- Paul Nicholls has handled four winners here from 19 attempts and placed with five others (16% win 42% placed).
- Jockey Nico de Boinville has ridden two winners from four mounts (50%).
The Aintree Bowl Steeple Chase
- No horse who was pulled up on their previous start has won this in the period covered (100%).
- All 20 winners were aged seven or above (100%).
- All 16 of those winners who had completed on their previous start came home in the first eight (100%).
- None of the 20 winners were officially rated above 170 (100%).
- All 20 winners were officially rated 152 or higher (100%).
- None of the last 20 winners had raced more than six times this season (100%).
- All 120 winners had raced at least once this season (100%).
- 19 of the 20 winners came from the first five in the betting at the off (95%).
- 19 of the last 20 winners had raced in the past 60 days (95%).
- 19 of the 20 winners were priced at 12/1 or shorter at the off (95%).
- 19 of the 20 winners were officially rated 155 or higher (95%).
- 19 of the 20 winners were aged seven to 10 inclusive (95%).
- 18 of the 20 winners were officially rated 158 or above (90%).
- 14 of the 16 winners who had completed on their previous start had come home in the first four (88%).
Additional comment:
- Trainer Willie Mullins is responsible for two winners and three places from six runners (33% win 83% placed).
- Paul Nicholls has handled five winners and five further places from 21 runners (24% win 48% placed).
- David Pipe has won this twice from seven attempts and placed with two others (29% win 57% placed).
- Nicky Henderson has trained two winners of this contest from 11 runners and placed with two others (18% win 36% placed).
- Jockey Nico de Boinville has won this twice from four mounts (50%).
- Harry Cobden has had six rides in this race winning with two and placing with two others (33% win 67% placed).
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