National Hunt Flat Races: A Niche Road To Profit?

I am a big fan of using trainer stats and the play a big part in my betting. That said, they wouldn’t be my sole reason for backing a horse and there would have to be other supporting factors in a horses favour. But if there are two areas where trainer stats can really be significant it’s in two-year-old and National Hunt Flat races. Those are the types of race where the skills of a trainer really can come to the fore.

This month’s article looks at how you can make profits from National Hunt Flat (NHF) races, in particular how you can benefit from a trainers expertise at placing their runners to winning advantage.

Do You Bet In NHF Races?

Bumpers, or to give them their correct title ‘National Hunt Flat (NHF) races' seem to divide punters. Some love them as a betting medium while others just leave them well alone. Why do so many punters swerve bumpers? There are three main reasons:

Firstly, there is usually little previous form to analyse, many of the of the runners in such races are making their racecourse debuts or have raced maybe once or twice either in similar NH Flat races, French AQPS races, Point to Point races (more on those two later), or in even in a maiden hurdle (Irish NH Flat races only).

Secondly, the breeding of the runners isn’t always the easiest to assess. Many of them are late maturing horses who won’t be seen to best effect until the race over longer distances. Others are flat bred horses that didn’t see a racecourse either due to backwardness or having encountered other training issues early in their careers.

Finally, even if a race contains runners with experience the form of their previous races isn’t always easy to evaluate as many NHF races are slowly run contests that usually end up as a three or four furlong sprint to the line which might not suit the late maturing chasing type.

On the other side of the of the argument I know plenty of punters, including some pros, who see NHF races as offering great betting opportunities and of course the chance to make some nice profits. I know one who used to back the horse with best Racing Post Topspeed figure in the race and it did seem to find some nice priced winners particularly in NHF races in Ireland. Others note the breeding of a horse and see what the sire’s record is like in such races. For most however, the trick is to hone in on those horses that have been well prepared by their trainers and targeted at the races.

What Are Bumper Races?

Bumpers are normally restricted to horses that have never run in any flat or National Hunt races. There are some exceptions as some may have run in a point to point race or in French AQPS (Autre Que Pur-Sang or “other than thoroughbred”) races.

It may seem strange that a non-thoroughbred can win top-class National Hunt races, but to race they must have at least 87.5% thoroughbred blood. AQPS horses have had huge success in Britain and Ireland in recent years due to the likes of Sprinter Sacre, Quevega and Un De Sceaux. Interestingly, each year all AQPS horses must be named with a designated letter of the alphabet; for example, the 2008 letter was “U”, which included Un De Sceaux and Un Ace. Most AQPS horses start off in AQPS flat races, which up until 2008 were regarded as normal flat races which meant they were ineligible for our bumpers. That rule has subsequently been changed and horses that have run in AQPS races can now race in NHF races.

Horses that have run in point to point races are also eligible to run in NHF races. Point to point racing in Ireland is big business with the Irish point to point scene being more competitive than it is in Britain. Plenty of Irish point to point winners can command a big sales price before racing for the top stables both sides of the Irish Sea.

The main aim of the bumper is to give horses destined for the national hunt scene some racing experience before letting them jump over hurdles and fences. The colloquial name ‘bumper' is said to originate from the time when only amateur jockeys were allowed to ride in them, apparently, the inexperience of the riders meant that the horses often bumped into each other through the race. Another possible explanation is that these inexperienced riders used to bump up and down on their mounts as they were riding; hence a bumper race. Who knows for certain which is the correct explanation but of the two my money would be on the former rather than the latter.

The restrictions on amateur only races has been lifted and professional jockeys are now able to ride in some NHF races this side of the Irish Sea. Amateur riders still dominate NHF races in Ireland, although conditional jockeys can also ride in some races. Most bumper races are run at level weights but there are exceptions for weight-for-age, for fillies and mares and penalties for having won a previous NHF races and most of the contests are run over distances ranging from 1m 5f to 2m 4f.

Hopefully, that has given you some background as to what NHF or Bumper races are. So let’s move onto how you can profit from betting in these contests.

National Hunt Flat Races: The Stats

The figures for all NHF races run in the UK & Ireland from January 2014 to date consist of 1922 winners from 18681 runners 5152 placed.

Here are few general stats starting with the fate of the clear favourites:

Clear Favourites – 680 winners from 1796 runners 38% -253.92 A/E 0.87 1226 placed 68%

A high win strike rate for the clear favourites but backing them blindly would have led to a large loss and they are performing 13% below market expectations.

How do horses making their debut under rules fare?

801 winners from 8230 10% -2211.14 A/E 0.87 2078 placed 25%

Those horses having their second career start are:

488 winners from 5269 9% -2347.66 A/E 0.74 1385 placed 25%

These runners are performing well below market expectation, in fact 26% below.

Those horses having 2+starts in bumpers have provided the following set of figures:

633 winners from 5182 runners 12% -1162.95 A/E 0.9 1689 placed 33%

Nothing to surprising in those figures the more experience a horse has the better their win chances are. A big loss to industry SP is to be expected and occurs but more interestingly backing all such runners to Befair SP would have led to a level stakes profit of 985.23pts courtesy of some huge priced winners on the exchanges.

As I mentioned earlier one way that you can find profitable angles is by looking at breeding and in particular a sire’s record in bumpers.

Sire Stats

Turf

One sire stands out for me and that’s Vinnie Roe. His progeny on turf have produced:

21 winners from 105 runners 20% +101.25 A/E 1.58 (profit to BSP +168.7 38 placed 36%

The best time to catch his progeny seems to be on their racecourse debuts:

13 winners from 26 runners 26% +98 (profit to BSP + 145.61)A/E 2.36 21 placed 42%

All Weather

There are few NHF races run on the all-weather. Since the start of 2014 there have been only 47 races run on the synthetics giving – 47 winners from 485 runners 127 placed. These races offer stats punters a good opportunity to get an edge over the majority of punters. Almost all of the horses running AW NHF races have yet to run on an artificial surface. Which means that sire stats can be a good guide to whether a horse will take to the surface.

These stallions all-weather records need respecting are:

Presenting – 8 winners from 23 runners 35% +59.25 A/E 21.13(profit to BSP +100.5) 13 placed 56%

Oscar – 3 winners from 8 runners 38% +8.75 A/E 1.9 (profit to BSP +10.65) 7 placed 88%

Scorpion – 2 winners from 4 runners 50% +15 A/E 2.63 (profit ton BSP +23.29 4 placed 100%

Westerner – 2 winners from 5 runners 40% +24.5 A/E 2.63 (profit to BSP +46.25) 3 placed 60%

The top four stallions in terms of number of winners have produced 32% of all the winners from just over 8% of all the runners:

15 winners from 40 runners 38% +107.57 A/E 2.11 (profit to BSP +180.68 27 placed 68%

Profitable Trainers To Follow In National Hunt Flat Races (Bumpers)

There are plenty of possible approaches that can be utilised in order to find winners of NHF races. One of the easiest and the best is to look at trainers who have strong records in these sort of races. These top performing trainers have the right methods to get the best out of these immature horses and lead to profits.

Here are the trainers that may be worth following in National Hunt Flat races, during the remainder of the 2017/18 season, as follows:

Let’s begin by examining the record of trainers with horses making their racecourse debut, and those trainers who do well with horses having their second or more starts. One trainer stands out with their ability to get a horse to win a bumper race on their racecourse debut and provide punters with some value at the same time.

First Time Out Winners:

Kim Bailey – 14 winners from 52 runners 27% +38.63 A/E 1.66 21 placed 40%

Another trainer who could be worth noting from a small sample is flat trainer Hughie Morrison – 4 winners from 9 runners 44% +17.38 A/E 2.7 6 placed 67%.

Kim Bailey and Hughie Morrison have both shown their capability for getting a horse ready to win on its racecourse debut.

Second Time Out Winners:

Brian Ellison’s record with his first time out winners in bumper races is 4 winners from 37 runners 11% -18 A/E 0.48 15 placed 40% but his record with those horses having their second start is a much improved:

10 winners from 29 runners 34% +11.11 A/E 1.49 12 placed 40%

Those stats show that Brian Ellison is adept at bringing out the required improvement in a horse to win on its second outing

Third Time Out + Winners:

Jeremy Snowden – 8 winners from 21 runners 38% +15.7 A/E 1.89 11 placed 52%.
Brian Ellison – 9 winners from 25 runners 36% +10.78 A/E 1.33 17 placed 68%

Trainers And Tracks

Trainers have favourite tracks for their runners and here are three who have outstanding records at particular courses:

Warren Greatrex – Bangor – 9 winners from 15 runners 60% +20.75 A/E 2.3 11 placed 73%.
Ben Pauling – Warwick – 7 winners from 12 runners 58% +31 A/E 3.65 7 placed 58%.
Nicky Henderson – Southwell – 8 winners from 14 runners 57% +8.13 A/E 1.49 12 placed 86%.

Trainer & Jockey Partnerships

One of my favourite trainer & jockey partnerships is that of Fergal O’Brien & Paddy Brennan and they are also worth noting when they team up in bumpers. Since the start of 2014 they have had:

19 winners from 80 runners 24% +68.93 A/E 1.53 32 placed 40%

When the pair team up in NHF races you definitely need to take notice.

Trainers & Sire’s

Like with jockeys, trainers have their favourite sires and two trainers Philip Hobbs & Alan King have good records with the progeny of the sire Kayf Tara:

Philip Hobbs – 9 winners from 26 runners 35% +10.01 A/E 1.65 16 placed 62%.
Alan King – 7 winners from 22 runners 32% +32.25 A/E 2.01 9 placed 41%

Finally, I am going to look at some trainers and their preferences in regard to class of race or going.

Race Class:

Nicky Henderson – Class 4 – 20 winners from 42 runners 48% +25.33 A/E 1.53 32 placed 76%.
Brian Ellison – Class 4 – 5 winners from 8 runners 63% +26.62 A/E 2.98 6 placed 75%.

Kim Bailey – Class 5 – 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +20.5 A/E 2.35 9 placed 53%.
Fergal O’Brien – Class 5 – 6 winners from 17 runners 35% +21.75 A/E 1.99 8 placed 47%

The Nicky Henderson record in Class 4 bumpers is outstanding and since 2014 he has had 21% of the winners from just 4.6% of the total runners. This is one micro angle I would have in my betting portfolio.

Going:

Some trainers do better than their counterparts with their NHF horses on certain types of going and here are five worth noting:

Warren Greatrex – Good – 22 winners from 55 runners 40% +21.9 A/E 1.41 32 placed 58%.
Anthony Honeyball – Good – 9 winners from 28 runners 32% +25.75 A/E 1.79 15 placed 54%.

Nicky Richards – Soft – 11 winners 22 runners 50% +27.85 A/E 1.73 16 placed 73%.
Fergal O’Brien – Soft – 12 winners from 41 runners 29% +38.35 A/E 1.9 18 placed 44%.

Nicky Henderson – Standard – 7 winners from 12 runners 58% +12.96 A/ E 1.85 9 placed 75%.

Summary:

Whilst many punters shy away from betting in bumper races there are plenty of angles to be exploited by the shrewd punter and with a bit of research profits can be made. From my personal perspective the trainer provides the best way to find an in, into these type of races but as I have mentioned there are other angles that are worth researching further.

I hope you have enjoyed this brief look at betting in NHF races and how you can profit from it. As ever it’s worth pointing out that previous results are not necessarily a guide to future performance. History does repeat itself but often it doesn’t!

All that’s left now is to wish you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year.

John Burke
Victor Value Racing