Horse Racing Legends - Lanfranco "Frankie" Dettori

Another member of our horse racing legends is Lanfranco or Frankie Dettori as we are more accustomed to calling him. He was born in Milan in December 1970 and is the son of the Sardinian Gianfranco Dettori, who was a prolific winning jockey in Italy although he also rode the winners of the British 2000 Guineas in 1975 & 1976.

With that pedigree it was highly likely that he would follow in his father’s footsteps and young Frankie’s first experience with horses was at the age of twelve when his father bought him a pony. After riding the horse on a regular basis it influenced the next stages of Frankie’s life as aged just 13 he left school to become a stable boy and apprentice jockey in his native homeland.

The following year he travelled over to Britain where he became apprenticed to trainer Luca Cumani at Newmarket in 1985 and became a stable jockey soon after. Just a few years later in 1990 Frankie became the first teenager since the legendary Lester Piggott to ride 100 winners in a season. Remarkably he rode his first winner at the tender age of 16 whilst still in Italy and his first winning ride in Britain was the following June in 1987.

The winners kept flowing including numerous winning rides at the highest level in Group 1 races and then he achieved the unthinkable by riding the winners of all seven races at Ascot on 28 September 1996. The feat included winning the prestigious Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and the cumulative odds of these wins was 25,051-1 and it later transpired that one lucky punter had won an incredible £500,000. Overall the stunned bookmakers reported losses in the millions, £30M if they are to be believed, and although he was already well known as a jockey the achievement made him a household name.

Given the final circumstances it seems fitting that Dettori’s first ride on that remarkable day was called Wall Street who was well fancied and was returned at odds of 2/1. The second seemed less likely as Diffident won at 12/1 and the next race was the feature event on the day, the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, where Mark of Esteem made it 3 on the bounce. Decorated Hero (7/1) carried Dettori to his fourth win in the Tote Festival Handicap and was followed by Fatefully (7/4) narrowly winning the Rosemary Stakes.

The next race was more straight forward with Lochangel (5/4) winning as the market expected and at this stage the BBC interrupted its traditional Grandstand coverage to broadcast the live action from Ascot as bookies slashed the odds for Dettori’s final mount, Fujiyama Crest. He set off as 2/1 favourite for the Gordon Carter Handicap, having started the day at 12/1. Nobody thought the horse would win, especially carrying top weight of 10 stone, but he held off the fast-finishing Northern Fleet to seal Dettori’s place in the history books.

The winners continued to flow over the next few years but in 2000 he and a fellow jockey had a scrape with death when the Piper Seneca plane they were travelling in crashed as it was attempting to take off. Unfortunately the pilot was killed but Dettori and Ray Cochrane managed to escape with Frankie sustaining a fractured ankle and Cochrane received the Queen's Commendation for Bravery in 2002 for saving Dettori's life.

For a number of years, 18 in total, Dettori was the main jockey to Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin organization and the pair teamed up to win a raft of major races but it was announced in September 2012, that the retainer would not be renewed in 2013. There was a lot of speculation as to the reasoning behind the decision and no doubt Frankie’s colourful lifestyle away from horse racing may not have helped matters.

He had been a team captain on the BBC quiz show “A Question of Sport” from June 2002 but a year later he left the show after realising that his attitude towards his riding had lapsed into going through the motions and it was time to get back to basics as a jockey. Part of the reawakening was to start riding in small meetings again, the ones on cold and horrible Monday afternoons that he had given up years ago but the aftermath of the airplane crash meant he would not use that mode of transport again which pretty much ruled out a serious challenge for the Champion jockeys’ title. However his newfound dedication was rewarded when he did indeed win the British Champion’s title in 2004.

The list of top class races that Dettori had won continued to grow with one significant exception the Epsom Derby which had eluded him from 14 rides in the Blue Riband event but all that was about to change when his services were retained for the 2007 running and the Peter Chapple-Hyam trained Authorized made it lucky 15th winning the race by 5 lengths and returned the 5/4 favourite.

In November 2012 which was not long after the announced split from the Godolphin operation Dettori faced an enquiry following a failed drugs test while riding in France in September. The verdict was made public on 5 December 2012 and Dettori was suspended from riding for six months after being found guilty of taking a prohibited substance which although not stated was believed to be cocaine. After the hearing he released a statement via his lawyer which said that he “also accepts that he has let down the sport he loves and all those associated with it, as well as the wider public”. Rather than keeping a low profile the following month he took part in the 11th series of Celebrity Big Brother from which he was the fifth to be evicted.

This wasn’t the first time he had admitted being involved in some unsavoury practices as in a 2010 interview with the BBC's Newsnight he opened up that he used to take diuretic drugs to keep his weight down and went on to say that he had used a wide range of substances such as Lasix, pee pills and laxatives before the Jockey Club banned them in June 1998 after a spate of positive drug tests revealed how prevalent their use was becoming.

After serving his six-month ban, Dettori made his racing comeback at Epsom on the 31 May 2013. A week later, he won his first race riding Asian Trader at Sandown. On 31 June 2013 Dettori signed a deal that made him the retained rider for Sheikh Joaan Al Thani.

During the last five seasons on the GB flat (2013-17) he had ridden 278 winners and the horses he rode had accrued in excess of £15 million pounds and by concentrating on quality rather than quantity his rides have returned a combined level stake profit during the last 3 years.

The highlights of the latest campaign have included riding the John Gosden trained 3yo filly Enable to six victories cumulating with the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in October. He also partnered the same trainers’ 3yo colt Cracksman to win the Qipco Champion Stakes a few weeks later and by the end of the 2017 season, he had ridden more than 3,000 winners in Great Britain, over 750 more than the next currently active jockey.

With his impressive pedigree and revitalised relish for the task can we potentially profit from Frankie’s mounts going forward?

The following Table may offer a possible answer to that question:-

Year     Runs       Wins       WinSR    LSP       A/E
All        298          87       29.19%      55.91   1.05
2017        93          30 32.26%      50.13   1.10
2016        94          27       28.72%      21.64   1.05
2015        96          29       30.21%      -4.86    1.05
2014        9              1       11.11%       -5.00    0.89
2013        6              0         0.00% -6.00    0.00

For those of you that may not be familiar with A/E here is a quick explanation of what it is and why it can be useful when looking for profitable pointers:-

Actual versus Expected
A figure based on actual versus expected return. This is calculated as the total number of wins versus the expected number of wins. The expected number is based on the official starting price, for example a horse at 1/10 has an expectancy of 0.91, an Evens money shot has an expectancy of 0.50, 2/1 is an expectancy of 0.33 and 10/1 is an expectancy of 0.09.

When our analysis shows an A/E figure of greater than 1.00 it is an indication that the returns are better than would be expected by the betting market.

Micro Method
The last Table shows a clear pattern of improvement with the last three years producing a better than 1.00 A/E figure. Given Frankie’s flamboyant profile and loyal following amongst the average punter the bookies are not likely to let his mounts go off at inflated prices so to produce A/E’s at industry SP in excess of 1.05 is a positive pointer.
Frankie’s association with two key trainers have developed in recent times and given the success that they have enjoyed there is every reason to assume that these partnership’s will continue going forward into the next campaign and beyond.

The trainers that have helped Frankie get back to where he belongs are Marco Botti and John Gosden and the recent profits have come from the 2yo and 3yo divisions so that will be the focus of our latest addition to the “Little Acorns” portfolio.

During the main flat season (April-October) back the 2yo’s and 3yo’s ridden by Frankie Dettori that are trained by Marco Botti and John Gosden. If you are able to, take the early prices from bookmakers offering the “BOG” option (Best Odds Guaranteed) as this approach generally outperforms leaving the bets at SP. If you have issues with bookmaker’s restrictions then the betting exchange live prices or the Betfair SP are viable alternatives