Inform Racing System Builder
Last time around in this new series of articles we focussed our efforts on the Master Rating which is a key part of the excellent content available from the Inform Racing Speed Ratings.
This time around we will move onto another facet of the daily Inform Racecards which is the M+A rating which reflects the combined total of the Master Rating and the Average of the last three speed ratings.
The M+A Rating can be useful to highlight not only the runners with the best Speed Rating from the last 12 months but also how they have performed in their most recent three runs.
It can be a potent combination as it quickly gives you the heads up on the Top Rated runners that are also in solid recent form.
Given we are in the midst of the Flat Turf season we will continue with the same period as last time around, that of the period May through to the end of October which covers the core period of the Flat turf campaign and to keep things relevant.
We will again be focussing our attention on the most recent 5 year period.
In last month’s piece we included a resume of the benefits of the Inform Racing System Builder and if you have recently joined us, you can read all about it here.
M+A Ratings
If we load the 5 years and months May through to October into the System Builder, we find that the top rated horse(s) on the M+A Rating achieved the following results: –
Without any other considerations the top rated on the M+A Rating produced a 22.73% strike rate and a relatively modest loss of 3.99% ROI to the Betfair SP after 5% comms.
The A/E of 1.01 is also a solid indicator as anything above 1.00 is considered a positive.
One of the great features of the Inform Racing System Builder is the ability to drill down into the results by numerous categories and one of these is to split the races between Handicaps and Non-Handicaps: –
It is clear from the above that the Top Rated M+A runners perform better in the Non-Handicaps with the 3 from 10 Strike Rate coming in at just a loss of 1.47% to the Betfair SP after 5% commission.
For those of you that have opted for the 2% package available on Betfair that would be turned into a positive return of +0.61% ROI.
Moving on we will next drill further down with our focus on the Non-Handicap races starting with the age of the qualifier’s: –
The Top Rated M+A qualifiers that are three years of age really standout in the above chart with an impressive 35.24% Strike Rate coupled with a tidy +5.85% ROI especially when we haven’t taken any other factors into consideration at this stage.
If we take a step back it does seem to make sense as the qualifiers will generally be in their second season but should still have improvement to come, given their relative age. The next chart breaks down the most recent five year period by the individual years.
Not sure why but what we are seeing in the above chart is an upward trend.
How do the boys compare versus the girls?
Although the entire males have the highest overall Strike Rate, they also have achieved the lowest return from blindly backing them. The Geldings just about break-even but this time around let’s hear it for the girls! Simply backing all the runners that are Top Rated on the M+A Speed Rating that are also 3yo Fillies and running in Non-Handicap races would have made a blind profit for each of the most recent five years to the Betfair SP with one caveat that 2018 would have pretty much broken even after 2% comms.
One interesting factor also emerges when we look at the time of the year is those running in the early months of the campaign have fared better than those in the latter months.
Anecdotally Fillies are considered to come into form and hold or improve for a relatively short period of time relative to their male counterparts, so it seems from the above that the time to catch them is during the May through to the end of July period.
If we reflect on the ELS (Expected Losing Sequence) we can see the figure of 14.24 which is higher than the actual 9 that occurred over the five year period giving us a positive edge of 36.82%. The A/E figure of 1.13 is also a “Brucie Bonus” given anything over 1.00 is considered a positive.
Steve Carter
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