September Acorns: As the Autumn Leaves Begin to Fall

This month's September Acorns brings a change of seasons: The warmth of summer gives way to mornings with a touch of chill in the air, the evenings come earlier as the days shorten and with it the ending of turf evening meeting.

For punters the month can be a very tough one as the change in seasons can usher in a change in weather patterns. The good to firm ground of the previous months can be quickly be replaced by softer underfoot conditions. September is also a month when those flat horses who were given a summer break return for an autumn campaign adding an extra layer of complication to form study.

It all makes for some interesting weeks which are all dependent on the weather. Will this lovely summer continue or will the wind and rain return?

Whatever the weather does. There’s plenty of great flat racing to look forward to this month both sides of the Irish Sea.

It all begins with the 32Red Sprint Cup festival at Haydock at the start of September. Followed a week later by the William Hill St Leger Festival and Irish Champions Weekend. Closely followed by Ayr’s Western Meeting. At the end of the month, Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire Meetings brings down the curtain what is sure to be an exciting few weeks of racing.

Profitable Trainers in Nursery Handicaps

In this month’s Acorn’s article, I am going to look at Nursery Handicap and investigate how you can make a profit from them. Now, I know some punters who avoid these races like the plague. Unlike all age handicaps, there is usually a dearth of form to work with and it can make them an even tougher puzzle to solve.

Nursery handicaps enter the racing programme in July so by the time you read this there will have been a few weeks of such races and the form will be starting to stack up.

This month I am going to look at four trainers whose runners in nursery handicaps should be worth following in the final months of the flat season.

As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.
To get a decent sample size and also to keep the stats as relevant as possible, I have concentrated on trainers who have had at least 20 runners during the period under research and also taken into consideration only the results from 2014.

I will begin by looking at one trainer in particular detail. Before highlighting three trainers with a smaller number of runners but are worth adding to the betting portfolios.

Richard Fahey: King Of The Nursery Trainers

One trainer stands out in terms of the number of winners and that’s Richard Fahey.

Now you won’t make money backing his nursery runners blindly but given his numbers, he’s an excellent starting point for further research.

I will begin by looking at his runners making their handicap debut:

As those stats show backing his handicap debutants blindly is not profitable and the A/E figure shows that they are performing well below market expectations and not offering much in the way of our old friend value.

However, by digging a little deeper a profit can be made by backing those handicap debutants that finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th on their last start.

The sample size is a bit small and the low chi score indicates that you should treat the stat with a degree of caution.

Moving onto class.

Things are starting to look a bit more interesting. The win strike rate of 18% is above average and the earlier loss has been turned into a good profit to both ISP and BFSP. Even better such runners offer value, performing 36% above market expectations.

A profit has been made in three out of the last four years and although the win strike rate is down in the last two years. This looks a good starting point for further analysis.

Going back to last time out placing. How do his runners who finished in the first three on their last start perform?

So, Richard Fahey nursery runners that are running in the same class or stepping up one notch in grade, that finished in the first three on their last start are winning 1 in 4 races that they compete in.

For a top trainer who has so many runners, it’s an outstanding strike rate. His runners are performing 53% better than the market expects, so there is plenty of value to be found.

By year:

By race code:

Looking at the all-weather results and breaking them down by track makes for interesting reading.

Newcastle – 3 winners from 6 runners 50% +21 3 placed 50%

Southwell – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +12

Chelmsford – 1 winner from 1 runner 100% +1.88

Kempton, Lingfield and Wolverhampton – 0 winners from 11 runners -11 1 placed

I would be cautious in regard to the above all-weather track stats. As I would be in regard to his results at Leicester – 4 winners from 4 runners 100% +10. Although, in the case of the latter you can have plenty of confidence that you will get a good run for your money if you see a Richard Fahey qualifying nursery runner at the Leicester.

System: Back Richard Fahey’s nursery handicap runners between September & November, that finished in the first three on their last start and that are running in the same class or up one.

Other Trainers:

With the latter three trainers there won’t be many qualifying bets during the autumn so should they fail there shouldn’t be too much damage to the betting banks.

1. Ed Walker
Newmarket trainer Ed Walker is adept at placing his horses in nursery handicaps.

14 winners from 49 runners 29% +23.84 A/E 1.65 23 placed 47%

Concentrating on those of his runners with following traits:

Race Class: 4, 5, or 6

Best in Three Runs: 1st or 2nd

Has produced the following set of results:

System: Back all Ed Walker nursery handicap runners between September & November in class 4 to 6 races only, that had a top two finish in one of their last three runs.

2. Saeed Bin Suroor
One half of the main Godolphin operation places their nursery runners with plenty of success.

12 winners from 31 runners 39% +12.01 A/E 1.41 17 placed 55%

Last year was a bit of a shocker for the stables juveniles and that’s reflected in last year’s nursery handicap results:

The trainer runners on the all-weather are worth focusing on:

System: Back Saeed Bin Suroor all -weather nursery handicap runners only between September & November.

3. Chris Dwyer
Newmarket based Chris Dwyer doesn’t have the biggest of strings but he’s another who is adept at placing his horses in nurseries in recent years.

5 winners from 23 runners 22% +31.75 A/E 1.77 12 placed 52%

Keep it simple with this trainer. Just focus on his all-weather nursery runners that are ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.

System: Back Chris Dwyer all-weather nursery handicap runners between September & November that are ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.

So, there you have it nursery handicaps don’t have to be as daunting as you think. Especially if you can identify those trainers who do well in such races.

Like many of these methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

Until next month.
John