Ascot stats pack cheat sheet
Royal Ascot starts on Tuesday.
We've published a lot on our site and on Daily Punt and I've been going through the stats on favourites, trainer angles, and where the market tends to get it right and wrong at the festival.
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Here's a quick checklist you can use to find value across the five days:
In Group 1s, stick with the top three in the market. Over the last 15 years, 71.6% of Royal Ascot Group 1 winners came from the top three in the betting, higher than any other Group 1 venue. Favourites and second favourites both show a profit.
Friday is the best day to back the market leader. Favourites on Friday have returned a +44% ROI over 15 years. Saturday is the worst day for them, one to file away.
Two handicaps where the favourite has a remarkable record. The Sandringham and the Duke of Edinburgh, the favourite has won 7 of the last 15 runnings of each, in big fields. Both show over 100% ROI backing blind.
Avoid horses backed into favouritism on the day. If a horse opened 3rd or lower in the morning market and was then backed down to favourite, leave it alone. Just 2 wins from 42 qualifiers, losing 76p in the £.
Apparently third in the betting in handicaps is a graveyard. Loses nearly 65p per £1 staked over 15 years. Not a place to be.
Ignore the big outsiders. Horses at 80/1 or bigger at BSP have produced just 1 winner from 288 runners in 15 years. The Ascot crowd loves a long shot but the stats say walk on.
Watch Karl Burke's juveniles. His 2-year-olds running for the first or second time have an outstanding record at the festival. They tend to be underbet because their form is limited, but Burke knows how to have them ready for Ascot.
Harry Eustace is the under-the-radar trainer to follow. 33% strike rate at Royal Ascot, every winner on the straight course. A small team with big results at the festival.
There's a lot more detail behind each of these angles. John Burke goes deep on the trainer stats here, and Dave Renham's full breakdown of the betting market is here.
Of course, if you'd rather have an expert study the entries each day and do all of this for you, John Burke's Victor Value service covers the full festival for just £9.99.
That's five days of daily selections, all the research done, card marked before racing. Click here to join Victor Value for Ascot.
Good luck next week.
Darren Power
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