A Q & A with Ben Aitken of Narrowing The Field
Would you tell us a little about your background, what attracted you to the horse racing industry?
It all began for me when my grandad took me into a bookies as a young lad (on a ‘pit stop’ on the way to getting my haircut!). I don’t know what it was about the smoke- filled, blacked out windows and ranks of TV’s that fascinated me but it certainly left a curious impact on me and the seed had been planted.
Soon after that the Grand National was the main pulling point for me and the yearly pull-outs in the newspapers on National weekend had me absorbed for hours on end. From a very young age the race used to fascinate me and as I got older I expanded into other races until I was consumed by the sport.
When I left home after school for further study I was already roughly compiling my own (very rough) notes on certain horses and it was at that point I decided to step my involvement up to a more serious level. It’s safe to say my studying time involved about 90% form studying and 10% of Graphic Design studying (what I was studying)!
Once I finished my studying I decided to step up my betting/racing again and that’s when I started developing my own analysis methods. From there I discovered an American technique that was untapped in this country (the Dosage Method) and after incorporating it into my own methods I decided to write a book on the subject. From there I set up a blog to support the book, which then turned into a web-site (www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk) and an analysis service, concentrating on the major races throughout the racing year.
Is there any one thing you enjoy most about the sport of kings?
The puzzle.
I love the challenge of trying to figure out who is going to win any given race and why. In the same vain I also love the challenge of figuring out the preferred/best conditions for any given horse, a kind of mini puzzle that interlinks with the main puzzle of who wins the race and why.
When did you set up Narrowing The Field and what made you look at the dosage angles rather than traditional forms of racing study. Would you explain what dosage is for the readers?
Narrowing The Field was set up in the 2009/10 season. I came across the Dosage Method whilst reading some older text on racing methods. It was a very short paragraph in the book but I was intrigued and wanted to find out more about the method and I also wanted to see if it would work for National Hunt racing in the UK (which is the area of racing I study the most). I was already looking at traditional forms of racing study but I wanted to incorporate alternative angles to look at races in a different manner to the mainstream to gain an ‘edge’. Dosage was something that was simply being ignored over here and I knew if it could successfully be applied to National Hunt racing (which it can and has been by myself for a number of years) I would have an edge and an alternative approach that others simply were not looking at.
Dosage isn’t always the easiest angle to describe and the best (and simplest description) I can give comes from my own Dosage book…
“In basic terms Dosage ratings are numerical figures which indicate the probable speed or stamina capabilities of a horse based on the appearance of influential sires in its bloodline. An influential sire has been determined not by its own achievements on the race track but the proven, consistent ability and success of its offspring. This is based on the theory that certain stallions can have a sustained significant influence on thoroughbred racehorses for a number of generations. Essentially, Dosage ratings are a horse’s genetic make-up expressed in figures.”
Describe your typical working day for the readers? What is your starting point for your research and how do you build in the statistics to narrow your selections?
The work would generally start the evening before racing. I have a large selection of angles and systems loaded onto my Proform database that I check through for pointers and positives/negatives. I would also check through all the horses I have notes for to see if any meet the conditions I have outlined for them. Those two methods in themselves help build workable shortlists that I can then delve further into. Obviously if any horses have ideal conditions (based on my own notes) I can take advantage of the early prices there and then.
On a statistical angle if there are any big races for the next day (mostly at weekends) I will then run the entries through my own thoroughly researched race trends (sourced for each individual race) to see which runners are a best fit on the criteria. That again builds a shortlist that I can delve further into using my own notes and other statistics/angles.
On the morning of racing it’s just a case of going over everything to make sure I’ve not missed anything glaringly obvious and of course seeing if ground conditions have changed or remained the same (I always check weather forecasts the evening before so that I’m ready for any potential changes).
When the racing starts I’m then looking to take notes for future, building up my files on certain horses and looking for reasons why they ran well or indeed ran poorly.
How do you suggest that readers use NTF? Can you recommend any useful sites or publications which may be a good introduction to Dosage?
NTF can be used in many ways. The most in depth way is to join the full service as you then receive all major race analysis guides (over 140 of the top races analysed using Dosage Trends and Race Trends) as well as members Trend Horses and in-depth Weekend Notes with individual horse notes. You can also join the free service where you can pick up a multitude of free guides and read my ‘what we learned from the weekend’ weekly blog post, providing trends, stats and future pointers from the weekends racing.
On the Dosage front the best website I can point you towards is Chef-de-race.com.
I also offer an ‘Intro to Dosage’ guide on my free service.
How does dosage apply across the different codes of racing? Can dosage be easily applied equally over all codes?
I’m personally of the opinion that it can be applied across both National Hunt and Flat racing although I wouldn’t be all that confident about it working on the all-weather.
Dosage is best used in the higher grades of racing and I would consider other factors to be more important and useful at the lower levels.
Is there anything you would like to see changed in the sport of horse racing? Why?
The declaration of breathing operations.
They can clearly have a significant benefit to a horse (and can lead to major improvement in horses) and more often than not we don’t find out until after the race that the horse was having its first run after a breathing op. If punters were made aware of this information the data could be plugged into a database and punters would be able to ascertain which trainer’s horses benefit from the operations and also which sires offspring benefit as well.
Do you think gambling / betting has a place in modern society and if so what style of betting do you think appeals to the modern day gambler? What are they looking for? What style of approach do you take to your betting on a personal level?
I think betting always has a place in society, especially modern society.
The growth of the internet and online/mobile betting definitely appeals most to modern punters as you can bet on the move and you don’t have to take a detour into a dingy old bookies to get your money down (not that bookies are like that anymore!). Online betting also offers numerous incentives that generally are not available in the shops and this can only be a good thing. If you take your time to shop around you can easily get your pick of the best prices (whether that be standard bookies or indeed the exchanges) and you can often get enhanced place terms on the big handicaps, something that also isn’t generally available in the shops.
My own personal approach is a mix of the exchanges and online bookies. Swaying marginally in favour of the exchanges.
What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experiences to date?
My own highlight would be a very recent one.
I own a share in a horse trained by Jeremy Gask called Trending, I’ve been part of the syndicate since the beginning. He spent the first five years of his career sprinting (5f & 6f) at a low level but as a seven-year-old the decision was made to try him over trips of 1m+. His last three races have seen him finish 2nd (1m), 1st (1m2f) & 1st (1m5f!), the first time in his career he has won back to back races! It’s almost like we have a new horse!
He’s still unexposed over these mid-range-staying trips so who knows where the ceiling to his new abilities will be!
Are there any tracks, meetings or race types you particularly enjoy?
I particularly enjoy handicap chases over 2m4f and further. They would form the largest percentage of races that I bet on and would also form the largest percentage of horses in my personal notes. I also enjoy non-handicap/non-novice chases over the same distances.
Outside of the obvious (Cheltenham Festival) I would have Ayr’s Scottish National meeting, Perth’s three day April meeting and the Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting as meetings that I particularly enjoy.
Favourite tracks would be Cheltenham, Perth, Kempton and Aintree’s National course.
Do you have one horse which you feel is currently a stand out and one to watch for the future? Any particular horse we should be backing at Cheltenham this year?
The Gary Moore trained AR MAD has been extremely impressive on the figures this season and he looks a serious player in the 2 mile division in coming years. There is the obvious concern about him going left-handed but even if that proves to be accurate there are still plenty of Grade 1 races for him going right-handed and he could easy step into Sire de Grugy’s shoes and become the next stable star at the Moore yard.
At Cheltenham this term I’m very keen on DON POLI’s chances in the Gold Cup. He’s been called a few names in some parts because he doesn’t win or look impressive in victory but that’s just his way and I expect him to be bang there at the finish of the Gold Cup, doing just enough to get himself home in front.
Are there any plans to develop NTF further in the future?
I’m always looking to develop NTF and bring in new aspects to the service and I do have plans to develop the horse notes section of the service in the very near future. This has been a new addition in the last couple of seasons and members have been using it successfully in its current format but I would like to develop and grow that part of the service even further.
What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests have you outside the world of sports?
We have three retired/rescue greyhounds and they go a long way to helping me unwind and relax, before, in-between and after racing.
They also demand I walk them twice a day so they also keep my fitness levels up!
Before we moved to Yorkshire we helped out at our local rescue centre (greyhoundrescuefife.com) and we are still in regular contact with them and make sure we visit when we are back home.
Away from the racing and the dogs (pets!) I enjoy playing squash, online poker and helping my wife with her (many!) upcycling projects (I’m the muscles, she’s the brains!).
