Handicap Top Weights

I thought this month that I would take a look at top weights in handicap races (flat and jumps).

The official handicapper rates these horses as the best in the race, weighting them in order to create an ‘on-paper’ level playing field.

I look at the last 10 years’ worth of data and all results are recorded to Betfair Starting Price.

As we are focusing on handicap top weights without an odds restriction, I will be prioritising those trends which show a good profit laying to a fixed liability.

With the bias with handicap top weights firmly towards the layer, we must control liability. Fixed liability laying does just that. For illustrative purposes I have fixed the liability at £10. The 3 staking plans mentioned in the article use the following stakes.

Lay Level Stakes is set at £10.

Lay Fixed Liability is set at £10 liability.

Lay 1-4 Staking Plan (which I introduced you to in my  last article) is set at £10 starting stake.

201-250 Miles Travelled.

A very impressive Fixed Liability profit targeting top weights who travel between 201 to 250 miles to the course. The accompanying video will show you where you find the information.

£100 to £796 to fixed liability.

Laying these qualifiers also profits to Level stakes ( £100 into £6537 ) and using the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan ( £100 into £18,512) .

The current winning sequence is 39, and the longest losing sequence is only 4 over a 10 year period.

One Run in the Last Year

Look for handicap top weights with just the one run in the last year.

Laying to a fixed liability turned £100 into £481. Ring-Rusty top weights are layable to our favoured staking plan. The profit graph is very smooth, which instils confidence. A longest winning sequence of 60 and longest losing sequence of 3 compounds said confidence.

These sequences make this ideal for Lay 1-4 Staking Plan.

Sire Presenting

I don’t for a second believe that an inability to perform as top weight in handicaps is hereditary but here, we are.

The progeny of the Sire Presenting profit when layed to a fixed liability £100 into £360.

T1 Headgear

T1 near a horse’s name on the Race Card indicates that the horse is wearing a tongue tie for the first time.

Laying these handicap top weights has turned £100 into £278 to fixed liability. Modest profit but it is the strike rate which impresses. A 90.8% strike rate over 10 years again implies consistency. This strike rate figure has also ensured a decent return to level stakes (£100 into £2418) and Lay 1-4 staking (100 into £4345).

Trainer Tony Carroll

Very smooth profit graphs are what catch my eye when Tony Carroll’s charges are top weights in handicaps.

Laying to a fixed liability turned £100 into £395. Qualifiers also profit to level stakes (£100 into £2824) and via the Lay 1-4 staking plan (£100 into £5560). An 89% strike rate over 10 years is eye catching too.

It’s A Long Way To…

Tipperary, but it’s worth it. Very smooth profit graphs suggest future-proofed profits. Laying to a fixed liability has turned £100 into £323. We see profits to level stakes (£100 into £1988) and using the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan (£100 into £3083)

£100 into £1988 level stakes laying.

The above qualifiers profit to a fixed liability which is the preferred lay staking plan when we are laying selections whose odds will fluctuate from low to high.

Other Mentions

7 Furlong Races

Why this particular race distance is a layer’s dream I’m not sure.

£100 to £6985 to level stakes.

Lay 1-4 staking plan turned £100 into £25698.

Sires Pastoral Pursuits and Beneficial

The progeny of Sires Pastoral Pursuits and Beneficial profit when laid to level stakes and using the Lay 1-4 staking plan.

Conclusions

Top weights are overwhelmingly layable in handicaps. The official handicapper seems to get it right. The ‘best’ horses in the race are vulnerable when carrying the most weight.

From a practical perspective, I would recommend laying those qualifiers profiting using Fixed liability. Fixed liability staking enables us to lay all selections at all odds without fear that liabilities will fluctuate to excessive amounts the bigger the odds of any selection.

Clive Keeling