First Stringers? Maybe Not – (Part 2)

Last month we took a look at the array of jockeys that get the leg up on Willie Mullins horses that may not necessarily be the stable first string or are the ones given the swerve by stable jockey Ruby Walsh.

We identified a few potential angles for the likes of Paul Townend, the Mullins boys, Danny, David and Patrick and also took a look at who Willie Mullins turns to on the flat. Irrespective of who gets the leg up, the mounts of these jockeys offer some serious value in comparison to Ruby Walsh’s picks for the simple reason that the weight of money will inevitably follow the Mullins / Walsh combination.

We continue that theme this month with a look at some of the other heavyweight trainers and their team of supporting jockeys that appear to be onboard the second or third string.

Under the microscope this month we have Nicky Henderson, Phillip Hobbs and Colin Tizzard to name but three.

We will be focussing on the years 2014 to 2018 and avoiding any combinations that are no longer in partnership.

As always, Horse Race Base is the tool I will be using to crunch the numbers and see where the profits lie.

Nicky Henderson

Nico De Boinville is currently the stable jockey for Nicky Henderson but, given the huge amount of horses in his yard, he also uses plenty of other jockeys where they either hop on board the second string or head off to a less lucrative race meeting.

So, who else does he use and are there profits to be farmed?

James Bowen

I am pretty sure that James Bowen will be champion jockey one day and his meteoric rise has been quite astonishing given how young and relatively experienced he is.

No surprise then that he has been snapped up by Nicky Henderson after posting 4 winners from just 7 rides for the champion trainer in 2017.

In 2018 his record currently stands at 22-74 for the Seven Barrows handler and I expect it to get better and better as the season progresses.

Those quick to see the huge potential of this partnership would be quids in when you consider the overall record of this partnership since they first teamed up in 2017:

The pair have a 32% strike rate with 26 winners from 81 runners with a place strike rate just under 50%. The P/L to £1 level stakes at Betfair SP stands at £82.92 and the return on investment (ROI) is 102.37%.

A lot of those winners have been on short priced favourites but he was certainly on the right one in Valtor who bolted up at Ascot at 33/1 in the Listed Garrard Silver Cup Handicap Chase. That one actually returned at 70 at Betfair SP and goes a long way to explaining the overall significant P/L for this combination.

Looking at the results in detail we find winners in bumper races (5-12), hurdles races (15-58) and chases (6-11). Winners have come in every race class from Class 1 down to Class 5, in handicap and non-handicap races and across a variety of trips.

There is definitely something here for favourite backers as the Henderson / Bowen runners that went off as favourite, joint favourite or co-favourite have a record of 18-34 and realise a small profit at Betfair SP.

However, with a strike rate of over 50%, a progressive staking plan would be the way to go with the ones sent off as favourite.

Runners that did not go off as favourite are 8-47 (17% strike rate) but have reeled in a hefty £77.56 profit at Betfair SP thanks in no small part to Valtor.

If you can ride out the inevitable losing runs then backing this type of runner is for you and it would be no surprise to see something of Valtor’s ilk dot up again this season.

Put simply, the Henderson / Bowen partnership is profitable to follow whether you are a favourite backer or, like me, are happy to wait for the big priced winner to come along.

System: Back Nicky Henderson runners when ridden by James Bowen.

Jeremiah McGrath

Jeremiah McGrath has ridden 80 winners for Nicky Henderson from a grand total of 371 rides since 2014.

Backing all the runners from this combination however, would have resulted in level stakes losses of £34.76 at Betfair SP. As always, rather than just dismiss this combination outright, it is worth digging into those results to see if there are any profitable angles.

The first thing we find is that 60 of the winners have come in non-handicap races and 20 in handicap races. The non-handicappers have a healthy 28% strike rate and return a small profit of £12.51 at Betfair SP.

So, we can strike a line through the handicappers and concentrate on the non-handicappers.

That small profit is shared out more or less equally among the hurdlers, chasers and bumper runners, so no real angle there in terms of race type.

Similarly, race distance and the number of runners in the field do not offer up any potential angles.

Those runners have done the business at a strike rate of 37%, return a profit of £26.48 at Betfair SP and a healthy return on investment of 26% (trust me when I say that anything above 10% ROI is very good).

Interestingly, we can now add the class 4 handicappers back into the mix and we get another 7 winners and a touch more profit to boot.

That leaves us with 44 winners from 139 runners (32% strike rate) for a profit of £32.13.

So, the angle here is to back the Henderson / McGrath runners in class 4 races.

System: Back Nicky Henderson Class 4 runners when ridden by Jeremiah McGrath.

Phillip Hobbs

We all know that champion jockey Richard Johnson is the main man when it comes to Phillip Hobbs’ runners, but he has a pretty big string of horses and he uses a fair few other jockeys.

So which ones should we be looking at?

Tom O’Brien

Richard Johnson obviously gets the lion’s share of the Hobb’s runners but next on the list in terms of the volume of rides is Tom O’Brien.

He has been on board for 484 rides since 2014 and has managed 76 winners at a strike rate of 16%. Not bad, but those runners have incurred some hefty losses. However, there may be some simple angles in there that produce the majority of those winners.

The first thing we can do is ditch this partnership in Grade 1, 2, 3 and Listed races where their record is 4-66. His record in races over 3m 1f is 1-30 so we can cap the race distance here.

We now need to concentrate on the handicappers as this is where the profits lie. This means sacrificing a fair few winners, but the stats show that the non-handicappers are just not profitable to follow:

The one statistic that does stand out though is that a massive 37 of those 60 winners have come at class 4 level.

I am more than happy to do this as we are trying to build up a portfolio of second stringers who, when combined, should bring in a cumulative number of winners.

All bar 1 of the handicap winners racing up to 3m 1f (in non-Graded and Listed races) was younger than 5 and older than 9. So, we need to stick to those runners aged 5yo to 9yo.

Finally, all the winners have come in fields of 15 runners or less.

That leaves us looking at the following set of figures for Tom O’Brien riding for Phillip Hobbs:

System: Back Philip Hobbs runners aged between 5 and 9 when running over 1m6f to 3m1f in Non Major Handicaps when in races of 3 – 15 runners and ridden by Tom O'Brien.

Gary Moore

We all know this family well. Trainer Gary, champion flat jockey Ryan and jumps brothers Jamie and Joshua. Over obstacles, Jamie is the main man certainly in terms of the higher grade races. However, in terms of the number of rides, Joshua is not that far behind and he might just be the one to take a closer look at when it comes to profiting from the Moore stable.

Joshua Moore

The first thing we can see is that backing all Joshua Moore runners out of his Dad’s yard would have yielded 81 winners from 589 runners and returned a level stakes profit of £78.99 at Betfair SP. Again, the exchange is your best friend here as those runners returned a loss of £61.66 at industry SP.

The strike rate is around 14%, around 1 winner every 7 rides which is good but probably needs improving upon for the casual punter.

We can bump up that strike rate by concentrating on those races over trips up to and including 2m 5 ½f. Beyond this distance, Joshua Moore has bagged just 6 winners from 103 rides for a meaty loss of £59.76 on the exchanges. Therefore, it looks like the better horses over staying trips are given to brother Jamie to ride.

We also find that the bumper runners are just 2-26 so it looks like the better ones are again given to Jamie to ride and we can give these the swerve and concentrate on the chasers and hurdlers racing up to 2m 5 ½f. He is also 0-19 on horses older than 9. This is more indicative of the yard’s runners than the jockey and it may be that the stable veterans are just not up to the task. Removing these ekes out a bit more profit again.

The other thing we need to do is not back his rides at any of the jumps festivals such as Cheltenham (the main Festival, November meeting etc), the Aintree Grand National meeting, the Newbury festivals (Hennessy meeting, spring jumps festival etc) and Sandown’s end of season finale.

He has had just 3 winners from 41 runners at the festivals and, while I am sure that will change in time, for now we need to give them the swerve.

So, we are looking at Joshua Moore / Gary Moore runners aged 3yo to 8yo in chase and hurdles races up to and including 2m 5 ½f but steering clear of the big jumps festivals. These runners have made a profit in each of the last 5 seasons:

System: Back Gary Moore's Chasers and Hurdlers outside of festival meetings when running over 5f-2m5.5f and aged between 3 and 9 years and ridden by Joshua Moore.

For Gold members, this month Nick adds to our bank of non first string jockey/trainer combinations further.

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