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The Statman

First things first, and although I have a few ideas left up my sleeve to call upon, I am always happy to go digging in the data if any readers have some ideas they would like me to look into for future articles, so feel free to write in and I will do my very best.

I have just got back from a trip abroad to watch the brilliant Ka Ying Rising cement his place as the World’s best sprinter, and while I was there, I sat down chewing the fat with fellow journalists from around the globe. One subject that came up was the breeding industry and the “need for speed” – stamina is almost seen as a bad thing, and with the Prix du Jockey Club (French Derby) now run over a mile and a quarter (2100mtrs), and the Kentucky Derby over the same trip, Epsom and The Curragh are becoming outliers as they stick to the more traditional mile and a half for their middle-distance classics.

While the conversation took place the little grey cells statedstarted whirring, if so many horses are bred for shorter, is there an angle looking for horses bred for further, and after that, are certain trainers more “old school”, and capable of training them for a test of stamina? That was my monthly target, a line of enquiry that few if any use (breeding) and a dig down deeper to see if we can turn a profit that most punters will miss, fingers crossed!

Rules: I have taken the three most likely going conditions (good to soft, good, and good to firm) plus All-Weather for Flat racing and will list by sire, top 5 only to the best profit.

All returns are listed to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) as I have found over the years, they are far more profitable than Industry SP, I have used profit figures AFTER an assumed 2% commission. After top sires we will then dig one more level for top trainers over stamina sapping trips (sires not relevant) to see if we can add a separate profit margin and/or Return On Investment (ROI). Data taken from 1st January 2017 to 2nd May 2026 inclusive.

Flat only, all races from 1m 3f furlongs (2640 yards) or more, turf and all-weather listed by going in profit order.

Flat only, all races from 1m 3f furlongs (2640 yards) or more, turf and all-weather listed by going in profit order.

I am sorely tempted to stop right there, but I won’t!

Close to £1000 profit to £1 stakes, and a Return On Investment of 145% is not to be sniffed at and with about 60 bets a year we can use this and be super selective.

A Return On Investment of 256% impresses, but thankfully we don’t get good to soft ground that often in the Flat season.

Firstly, the low threshold of 20 qualifiers sets alarm bells ringing, but it is what it is.

A Return On Investment of 256% impresses, but thankfully we don’t get good to soft ground that often in the Flat season.

Bigger (and possibly more reliable) numbers to deal with but a lower Return On Investment of 127% - less than 50 bets a year to have to cope with and a decent profit considering.

Bigger (and in my view more reliable) numbers to deal with but a lower Return On Investment of 127% – less than 50 bets a year to have to cope with and a decent profit considering.

The return of just 62% pales into insignificance compared to out other lists, but a profit is still a profit.

I was surprised to see so many top sires failing to hit a high number of winners but again, we can only deal in facts. The return of just 62% pales into insignificance compared to out other lists, but a profit is still a profit I suppose.

On to the trainers…

A Return On Investment of 177.85% is not to be sniffed at, and from an average of about one bet a week.

Some poor strike rates to be wary of for those ranked four and five, but overall, a Return On Investment of 177.85% is not to be sniffed at, and from an average of about one bet a week.

A Return On Investment of 43.94% over the period covered.

More money to the betting bank and a Return On Investment of 43.94% over the period covered.

Conclusion:

Something a little different this month I admit but if you add them all together (and obviously some bets will double up), we have an overall figure of 4518 bets (just over one a day on average), giving us a total of 612 winners for an overall strike rate of 13.55%, a profit of  £4402.68, and a Return On Investment of 97.45% – not bad at all, in my opinion, though if you are brave enough to work on all-weather only, those figures are even better with 1268 bets for 138 winners (10.88%) , a profit of £2031.57, and a Return On Investment of 160% – nice work if you can get it!

Sean Trivass is well-known freelance journalist who specialises in horse racing. His books can be found on Amazon here https://tinyurl.com/Seans-books,  while his weekly blog is updated Friday evening on his website at www.writesports.net.

Ideas for future articles needed please – contact Sean via his website and he will investigate further!

Sean Trivass has been involved in racing for close to 40 years, starting at the local paper and moving on via Timeform, Alan Brazil Racing, Betdaq, Shadowfax Racing (Sir Ivor), The Independent (Hyperion) and many others as a freelance.

Currently the racing editor of the Daily Sport, he is also the UK correspondent for Thoroughbred News Australia, works on the racing desk at the Press Association, contributes regular international articles for Racing Ahead magazine, runs his own website (Writesports.net), contributes to the Post Racing Podcast with Ron Robinson on a regular basis, and is the current chair of the Horseracing Bettors Forum, the only recognised body representing the day to day punter.

Living near East Grinstead, his local tracks include Lingfield, Goodwood, Plumpton, Brighton and Fontwell (where he held his wedding reception), while his father owned Northmore Stud who bred St Leger runner-up Kite Wood who raced in the Godolphin colours.

Away from his daily work he loves football, plays pool (badly) and has had numerous statistically based books on making money from racing published and still available via Amazon!

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