Old Wive’s Tales – Part II
From the comments I have received following my penultimate article on what may be best described as racing folklore, it seems sensible to put that subject to bed this month with two other long-term concepts (or “old wives’ tales”) that may or may not have some basis in fact (we will soon find out).
I had a surprisingly long list of options suggested to me (though sorry, statistics don’t tell me if a horse has one two three or four white socks, or if more winners race in green silks or not) so I have gone with the two most popular for this article, both of which are fairly simple in nature.
- Back German sired on soft or worse ground over hurdles.
- Always back the favourite in non-handicaps on the Flat and in non-handicaps over hurdles or fences – lets go and have a look, shall we?
Data is from 1st January 2015 to 30th September 2025 inclusive, all races UK and Ireland hurdles only, soft, slow, or heavy going only.
“Back all German Breds on Soft or slower ground over hurdles” – basic figures
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 370 | 38 | 10.27% | -£107.47 | 5 | 37 |
Comment: Nothing much to report here but we can look a little bit deeper.
Hurdles only - By course (top 5 by Return On Investment).
| Course | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Return On Investment | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Lingfield | 6 | 2 | 33.33% | +£20.11 | +335.13% | 1 | 2 |
| Clonmel | 10 | 2 | 20.00% | +£22.00 | +219.98% | 2 | 4 |
| Aintree | 6 | 1 | 16.67% | +£12.64 | +210.67% | 1 | 5 |
| Naas | 11 | 2 | 18.18% | +£16.78 | +152.58% | 2 | 5 |
| Sandown | 8 | 1 | 12.50% | +£11.62 | +145.25% | 1 | 7 |
| TOTALS | 41 | 8 | 19.51% | +£83.15 | +202.80% | N/A | N/A |
Comment: The figures should be taken with a pinch of salt when the numbers are this low, and the profit in pounds is nothing to get too excited about, that said, there does seem to be something to this with excellent returns from a minimal number of bets over the years, one for the very patient punter.
Because I am an “anorak”, I also had a look for the same criteria, but on the Flat instead.
Flat only - By course (top 5 by Return On Investment)
| Course | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Return On Investment | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Thurles | 1 | 1 | 100.00% | +£21.02 | +2102.10% | 1 | 0 |
| Nottingham | 10 | 1 | 10.00% | +£51.31 | +513.09% | 1 | 6 |
| Ffos Las | 4 | 1 | 25.00% | +£17.58 | +439.50% | 1 | 3 |
| Epsom | 6 | 3 | 50.00% | +£24.63 | +410.44% | 2 | 1 |
| Chester | 10 | 2 | 20.00% | +£28.35 | +283.48% | 1 | 5 |
| TOTALS | 31 | 8 | 25.81% | +£142.89 | +460.94% | N/A | N/A |
Comment: Low numbers once again but outstanding returns percentage wise, very similar to the hurdles review (though slightly better).
Moving on…
“Always back the favourite in non-handicaps on the Flat and in non-handicaps over hurdles or fences”.
Basic figures for all of the above:
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 54226 | 22865 | 42.17% | -£854.51 | 14 | 18 |
Comment: Evidence if any was needed that the bookmakers are smarter than we are! A fantastic strike rate of 42.17% surprised me but you still can’t make a profit backing the favourites blindly, so we can now go a lot deeper.
Flat Turf only
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 19728 | 7723 | 39.15% | -£410.41 | 10 | 18 |
Flat all-weather only
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 9357 | 3966 | 42.39% | -£105.19 | 10 | 17 |
Hurdles only
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 14608 | 6780 | 46.41% | -£118.57 | 13 | 15 |
Chases only
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 5389 | 2457 | 45.59% | -£48.63 | 9 | 16 |
Bumpers only
| Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| 5144 | 1939 | 37.69% | -£171.52 | 9 | 19 |
Comment: Well, I think we have safely blown that old wives’ tale out of the water.
Fantastic strike rates but no profit whatsoever to be made, looking at it from any angle I can think of, except one.
A quick look by track for each option may, just may turn us a profit, and if it does, we know in advance the strike rate will be exceptional.
|
The rest of this article is for Platinum members. You've just seen what our experts do with publicly available data — the Platinum section is where the specific angles, numbers and actionable conclusions live. Platinum members also get daily system selections in their inbox by 2am, tips from top tipsters, Win Big Golf selections, and access to 11 years of magazine archives. |
