National Hunt Horses Having Their First Run in a Handicap
In this article I am going to examine the performance of horses that are having their first run in a National Hunt handicap race. The data for this article has been taken from 1st January 2018 to 31st August 2025 for UK National Hunt racing.
As with all my articles, profits and losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 2% commission on any winning bets. The A/E index (Actual / Expected) which helps determine ‘value’ has also been calculated to BSP.
The piece will be split up into two parts, one section will look at handicap chases, the other handicap hurdles.
There is far less data for horses having their first ever handicap run in a chase because most NH horses race over hurdles first and hence are more likely to have their first handicap run in a hurdle not a chase.
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Therefore, let me start by taking a look at the chase data:
First Run in a Handicap Chase
I am going to look at the Betting Market first, based on their position in the Befair Exchange market.
It is interesting to note that only favourites have shown a loss to BSP, so overall horses making their handicap debut in a chase have performed above the norm. This is also reflected in the A/E indices which are 1.00 or higher.
For the other areas I wish to examine, I am going to restrict qualifiers to those that were priced BSP 20.0 or less, to try and eliminate skewed findings.
Let me examine male runners versus female runners next, so essentially the performance of the horses by their sex.
Not many female runners overall, but they have struggled compared to their male counterparts when they have run. Hence, I would be wary on backing any female runner in a chase on their handicap debut.
A look at the age of the runners now. Do we have any pointers here?
4yos have made a profit from a small sample, but the age of choice seems to be either horses aged 6 or 7. Both have made sounds profits coupled with decent A/E indices. Once they get to 8 years old and older these handicap debutants have started to struggle somewhat, both from a winning perspective and a value one.
How about past successes?
The next stats I am looking at are based on previous career wins. Here are the findings:
Horses making their handicap debut in a chase are worth noting if they are still maidens, e.g. horses that have yet to win a race. This cohort of runners have secured returns in excess of 23 pence in the £ which is eye-catching. Less successful though are horses who have had two or more wins in their careers. I am guessing these runners may have been overbet slightly based on the hefty losses accrued.
A look now at finishing position last time out.
Let me share the splits:
Winners last time have performed quite poorly, while horses that finished second and third LTO have done extremely well. They look the group to concentrate on from a betting perspective.
Finally for this shorter chase section, a look at trainer performance. Again, though data is somewhat limited. I have used a minimum of 25 runs for a trainer for them to make it into the table:
Considering these relatively modest sample sizes, we need to be a little careful before waxing lyrical about the positive stats of a particular trainer. However, based on the returns and the A/E indices, three trainers, Nicky Henderson, Fergal O’Brien and Venetia Williams, are probably worth keeping an eye on in the future when saddling a qualifier.
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