Statman Reborn – Issue 125
Time flies when you are having fun as they say, and as I write this looking out on a cold wet afternoon, the turf Flat season is just around the corner – where does the year go?
I am one of the few racing fans who loves all codes equally – yes, I love to see “old friends” come back out year on year over hurdles or fences – but I also like the blistering speed of our better Flat horses, the Classics – and the thoughts of a day at the races on a warm summer’s day.
This month I have decided to look at those trainers who do well in the first months of the season – March and April only.
That may look like a particularly small segment of a racing year (because it is), but the idea is simple enough – do some yards continually attack the early season contests to reap the rewards before the huge all-powerful Newmarket and Lambourn stables get into top gear and unleash their blue-bloods?
If I am correct (first time for everything) there is money to be made if we can find the right handlers, jockeys and so on – so enough waffle for this month – lets go and have a look.
Note – turf only, Flat only UK and Ireland – all-weather tracks are NOT included.
Dates – March and April only, turf Flat only, data taken from the last 10 years (2015 to 2024).
As is my habit I like to start with the very basics so we will start with the trainers in profit to BSP to £1 stakes assuming 2% commission, and drill down from there.
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Rod Millman | 207 | 20 | 9.66% | +£768.43 | -£7.35 | 1 | 22 |
| Jack W Davison | 65 | 7 | 10.77% | +£312.14 | +£120.88 | 2 | 17 |
| J R Jenkins | 52 | 3 | 5.77% | +£305.19 | +£81.58 | 1 | 33 |
| Ben Haslam | 106 | 15 | 14.15% | +£289.74 | +£110.60 | 2 | 24 |
| Richard Hannon | 704 | 91 | 12.93% | +£231.90 | +£51.79 | 2 | 47 |
| Mrs John Harrington | 426 | 54 | 12.68% | +£202.69 | -£6.14 | 3 | 41 |
| Stuart Williams | 133 | 14 | 10.53% | +£197.64 | +£36.75 | 1 | 18 |
| Pam Sly | 46 | 8 | 17.39% | +£197.30 | +£93.25 | 3 | 15 |
| Brian Meehan | 126 | 16 | 12.70% | +£187.20 | +£85.23 | 3 | 24 |
| Roger Teal | 60 | 4 | 6.67% | +£166.40 | +£36.00 | 1 | 30 |
| TOTALS | 1925 | 232 | 12.05% | +£2858.63 | £602.59 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: it is very easy to look at figures and simply wander past but these are quite frankly outstanding.
Up your stakes to a not unrealistic £10 a bet and your profit over the last decade is £28,586.30 backing all their horses blindly, a return on investment of 148.50% (or 14.85% per annum) – compare that to the pitiful amount you get from the banks these days (and do remember…
…we are only betting at the back end of March and all of April).
On the downside, anyone playing in this manner will need a healthy betting bank (note some of the longer losing runs), but once again we see a (much smaller) profit betting to industry SP (a rarity in itself), though Betfair SP is clearly the more profitable way to go.
Personally, I could just stop there, but what about the jockeys?
Same rules as above….
| Jockey | Rides | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Shane Foley | 586 | 67 | 11.43% | +£378.41 | +£25.97 | 2 | 63 |
| Edward Greatrex | 57 | 6 | 10.53% | +£334.56 | +£103.20 | 1 | 28 |
| Ronan Whelan | 395 | 24 | 6.08% | +£278.03 | -£0.28 | 2 | 54 |
| Andrew Mullen | 277 | 20 | 7.22% | +£176.03 | -£12.52 | 2 | 33 |
| Tom Marquand | 330 | 44 | 13.33% | +£161.50 | +£84.88 | 3 | 33 |
| Sean Levey | 295 | 41 | 13.90% | +£150.48 | +£79.62 | 3 | 20 |
| Seamie Heffernan | 394 | 41 | 10.41% | +£130.39 | -£30.33 | 2 | 52 |
| Zak Wheatley | 46 | 7 | 15.22% | +£123.01 | +£59.50 | 2 | 16 |
| William Buick | 356 | 88 | 24.72% | +£116.82 | +£34.61 | 4 | 15 |
| Wayne Lordan | 390 | 28 | 7.18% | +£115.64 | -£98.75 | 2 | 43 |
| TOTALS | 3126 | 366 | 11.71% | +£1964.87 | +£245.90 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: Not as profitable as the trainers to be blunt with a Return On Investment of 62.86% over the 10 years covered (6.29% per annum), but not a bad profit regardless and again, we are only betting for less than two months with this concept.
I was surprised to see how many of the jockeys on my original “Top 10” have now retired (age comes to us all) and once again, do take note of the long losing runs and assess your betting bank accordingly.
Next up and for something the vast majority of punters fail to consider, how about the sires?
I agree there is no logical reason why one sire should be more successful early season than another, but perhaps their progeny is better bought and campaigned at a more realistic level early in the season – let’s have a look (same rules as above).
| Sire | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Mount Nelson | 104 | 11 | 10.58% | +£860.82 | +£70.88 | 2 | 31 |
| Outstrip | 80 | 7 | 8.75% | +£329.63 | +£96.33 | 1 | 34 |
| Ardad | 83 | 11 | 13.25% | +£303.13 | +£118.21 | 1 | 47 |
| Rock Of Gibraltar | 211 | 26 | 12.32% | +£296.08 | +£137.42 | 2 | 19 |
| Prince of Lir | 61 | 8 | 13.11% | +£287.73 | +£103.60 | 2 | 16 |
| Mondialiste | 39 | 5 | 12.82% | +£225.39 | +£76.50 | 1 | 16 |
| Zebedee | 306 | 38 | 12.42% | +£221.06 | +£66.78 | 2 | 35 |
| Holy Roman Emperor | 286 | 28 | 9.79% | +£211.34 | +£77.33 | 2 | 33 |
| Arcano | 217 | 22 | 10.14% | +£205.10 | +£36.58 | 2 | 18 |
| Pivotal | 270 | 29 | 10.74% | +£187.68 | -£10.17 | 2 | 46 |
| TOTALS | 1657 | 185 | 11.16% | +£3127.96 | £773.46 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: Well, I did not see that coming!
An impressive Return On Investment of 188.77% over the 10 years (or 18.88 per annum) and a real money profit after commission of £31,279.60 to a £10 level stake – though again be warned, there are some long losing runs we need to cope with.
Conclusion: I did also look at owner’s stats and trainer/jockey combinations but neither showed profits worthy of a mention.
It is my genuine belief that there is no need to go any deeper for now and that basic as that may look at first glance, there are some very healthy profits to be made when you consider this “system” only operates for approximately six weeks of the season – best of luck one an all and please note the potential long losing runs and adjust your stakes or use a betting bank accordingly.
Sean Trivass is well-known freelance journalist who specialises in horse racing. His books can be found on Amazon here while his weekly blog is updated Friday evening on his website at www.writesports.net. Any ideas for future articles – contact Sean via his website and he will investigate further!