The Mud Loving Jocks
Five jockeys who excel on the flat when the ground is riding testing
What matters more when the mud is flying?
The previous record of the horse when running on similarly testing ground? (or if never before raced on testing ground, the record of the sire’s offspring on deep ground)
The record of horses from the trainer on testing ground?
Or the record of the jockey when riding on testing ground?
Racing and betting, as always, involves multiple factors, regardless of the weather conditions and, undoubtedly, the true answer to the ‘what matters more...’ question is likely to vary from race to race and meeting to meeting...
Indeed, maybe I should be asking...
Are we adequately considering all relevant factors when the ground is riding testing?
Heavy and/or Soft ground can produce ‘strange’ results, and it can lead to periods where it becomes trickier to secure a consistent return on your betting activities. Unfortunately, longer periods of Soft and Heavy ground do seem like something we may have to get used to, so we need to make sure we have plenty in our favour when looking to source profitable plays in our day to day punting plays.
The following table shows the number of races that have been run on Soft or Heavy ground during the last ten UK Flat seasons...
As we can see from the table, it has been the last two flat seasons that have seen the greatest number of races run on ground officially described as Soft or Heavy. In 2024 there were 884 races run on such ground whilst in 2023 there were 939 races run on such ground. The previous highest in the last ten years was 820 in 2017. No other year breached the 700 mark.
Whether it continues in such a manner (an increased number of races run on testing ground) or whether the last two years turn out to be anomalies, is essentially irrelevant.
There will always be plenty of races that are run on testing ground during any given UK Flat season, and it will never be a wasted exercise to have put in the study hours, making sure you have yourself primed and ready for the periods when the mud is flying.
Back to the question in hand...
Are we adequately considering all relevant factors when the ground is riding testing?
I’m inclined to say ‘No, we are not’... and I think the area that is overlooked the most is the record of the jockey when it comes to testing ground.
Like in any sport, some jockeys excel under certain conditions whilst others struggle when faced with certain conditions. In this particular instance it is the muddy leveller known as testing ground that can make some jockeys shine and others, well, flounder about in the wet stuff!
What follows are a group of five flat jockeys that caught my eye whilst I undertook a deep dive into the stats, using the last ten UK Flat seasons as my basis and looking only at races where the ground was officially riding Soft or Heavy.
This list highlights key names to watch when the mud is flying, and I also take a bit of a closer look to pinpoint specific area where their stats improve further.
It is likely that these individuals, particularly those in more prominent yards, have acquired the necessary modifications to ride a horse effectively in the challenging conditions and position their mounts with enough left in the tank for the final stages of the race, and the lung bursting push to the finish line.
Let’s get started...
Silvestre De Sousa
Overall record since 2015 in UK Turf races when the ground is riding Soft or Heavy
123/695 | 18% S/R | +£109.90 BFLSP – W&P 243/695 | 35% S/R
3% below market expectation
Only four jockeys have ridden more winners under such conditions than Silvestre De Sousa, which alone is quite remarkable, given the fact that the Brazilian spent a period of time racing in other parts of the world in recent years. His overall record is strong but, as always, things can be tightened up by adding in a few filters...
Be wary of those he rides at really big prices...
De Sousa has banged in a couple of big-priced winners on testing ground but generally they are best ignored, or at least treated with a level of caution, with the stats for the horses he rides on Soft or Heavy that start at an SP of 20/1 or bigger reading... 2/84, 5p | +£8.79 BFLSP– 26% below expectation... I wouldn’t be fooled by the positive BFLSP figure as one of the two winners went off at an exchange SP of 60.43, which distorts things plenty...
He struggles to strike at the same level in really large fields...
You would expect the strike-rate to dip a little when there is more traffic to navigate but even with that in mind the stats tell us that De Sousa, testing ground and large fields don’t mix, with the figures for the jockey on testing ground, in fields of 18 or more returning... 0/34, 1p | -£34.00... only the one solitary placed effort clearly telling us this is not an area where his testing ground expertise bears much fruit...
I’d also drop horses that De Sousa rides on Soft and Heavy ground that are aged 7yo+ (stats of 3/33, 2p with those types) as he doesn’t seem to quite get the same tune out of those horses that have been on the go for a few years...
Tightening the overall stats with the addition/removal of the above gives the following...
Silvestre De Sousa | UK Turf races when the ground is riding Soft or Heavy | fields of 17 or less | SP 18/1 or less | horses aged 2yo-6yo
119/568 | 21% S/R | +£133.52 BFLSP – W&P 231/568 | 41% S/R
1% above market expectation
Jim Crowley
Overall record since 2015 in UK Turf races when the ground is riding Soft or Heavy
106/665 | 16% S/R | +£151.05 BFLSP – W&P 229/665 | 34% S/R
6% below market expectation
Some solid overall stats from Jim Crowley on testing ground conditions and he’s more than capable of getting an ‘outsider’ home in front as well, with six winners starting at an SP of 20/1 in the data set.
Within these wider stats the following caught my eye...
His record with horses wearing a Tongue-Tie is poor...
Generally, although not exclusively, a tongue-tie would signify at least some level of concern from connections that the horse in question has a breathing ‘issue’ of some sort and Crowley seems to not push these types quite as hard when the mud is flying, returning stats of 3/38, 4p | -£15.40...
The P&L figures take a real hit when Crowley is riding one that has been more active over the past 90-days...
This is highlighted by the following set of stats, that look at the record of Jim Crowley mounts on testing ground that have run THREE or more times during the past 90-days... 23/203 | 11% S/R | -£70.92 BFLSP – W&P 56/203 | 28% S/R – 32% below expectation...
Tightening the overall stats with the addition/removal of the above gives the following...
Jim Crowley | UK Turf races when the ground is riding Soft or Heavy | Horses with 0-2 starts in the previous 90-days | NOT wearing a Tongue-Tie
82/443 | 19% S/R | +£225.10 BFLSP – W&P 170/443 | 38% S/R
7% above market expectation
Hollie Doyle
Overall record since 2015 in UK Turf races when the ground is riding Soft or Heavy
95/635 | 15% S/R | +£4.56 BFLSP – W&P 215/635 | 34% S/R
2% above market expectation
Hollie Doyle strikes above market expectation without any filtering needed, which is always an excellent starting point before we begin any tightening up of the stats...
Be wary of Hollie Doyle when she’s riding a horse at the start of its career on testing ground...
There’s clearly a strong chance she is riding to instruction in this instance, as it makes no sense to bottom a horse out on one of its first excursions to the racetrack and the ground is riding on the testing side... but whether it is a conscious effort or not from the jockey, from a punting perspective it makes sense for us to give a swerve to any horse Hollie Doyle rides on testing ground that is having its first or second racetrack appearance.
With the figures for those types returning... 6/83 | 7% S/R | -£55.27 BFLSP – W&P 25/83 | 30% S/R – 53% below expectation...
Hollie Doyle is another who fails to shine in large fields when the ground is testing...
Hollie Doyle only manages to convert a very small percentage of her rides on testing ground when she is jocked up in a field of 14 runners or more... 5/97, 14p | -£13.18 BFLSP – 43% below expectation...
Tightening the overall stats with the addition/removal of the above gives the following...
Hollie Doyle | UK Turf races when the ground is riding Soft or Heavy | Horses with at least two previous career starts | fields of 13 runners or less
84/466 | 18% S/R | +£62.01 BFLSP – W&P 173/466 | 37% S/R
14% above market expectation
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