An AI generated image of the Grand National runners jumping a fence.

Aintree Trends

Now, as we are nearing April, you may have started to see different publications and papers publish trends looking forward to some of the big races from the upcoming Aintree Grand National Festival Meeting. Such pieces usually look back at the last 10 years of the race in question. I have plenty experience of this type of research because from 2007 to 2013 I did a weekly column covering 10-year big race trends in the Racing & Football Outlook.

Over this period of time, while working on these trends, I started to get an excellent feel for which races suited past trends and which did not. Past race trends can be very good indicators of how a future race is likely pan out, and this is usually the case at the bigger meetings.

Some punters, including me, religiously use past race trends at big meetings to help narrow down the field. If we can confidently eliminate let’s say half of the runners, then it drastically improves our chances of picking the winner. Obviously, there will be times when past race trends are ‘bucked’ where the winner doesn’t fit the typical past profile, but that is life and sometimes things do not pan out as they should.

In this article I am going to be diving into some races at the upcoming Aintree Grand National festival. Instead of looking at the past 10 years, I will be looking at the last 27 years trying to uncover some of the most important and potent trends. Going back that far should give us more reliable stats / trends. Sometimes when using just 10 races you can get some anomalies.

On the flip side we need to keep an eye on the most recent races to make sure any trends or patterns are starting to change – BECAUSE sometimes they do.

I will be looking at four of the races at the forthcoming Aintree meeting. I will start with looking at a couple of races that will be run on the Thursday, moving through to one race each on Friday and Saturday.

All profits and losses quoted will be calculated to Industry Starting Price as Betfair SP only goes back to 2008.

Thursday - 2.20 Boodles Anniversary 4yo Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Form: 25 of the last 27 winners had won at least once in their last three starts. Just 2 wins from 94 runners for those who have not managed that.
Favourites: 13 wins from 27 for a PROFIT of £5.45 (ROI +20.2%).
Breeding: French bred runners have provided 14 of the 27 winners. This equates to providing 52% of the winners from 27% of the total runners.
Last Run: 20 of the last 27 winners ran LTO at the Cheltenham festival. This equates to providing 74% of the winners from 42% of the total runners.
Class LTO: 18of the last 27 winners ran in a Grade 1 contest LTO.
Trainers: 4 wins apiece for Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Alan King.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Hurdle runs: Horses that had raced over hurdles less than twice in their careers are just 1 win from 44. This would have yielded a loss of £37.00 (ROI -80.4%).

OTHER STATS

LTO price: Horses that were priced 10/1 or bigger LTO have been good value. They have won 10 races from 126 runners for a profit of £42.50 (ROI +33.7%).
Trends Summary: Favourites have a good record, but there have been 7 winners at double figure prices so occasionally this race will spring a surprise.   A recent win in terms of winning at least one of their last three starts is important, while horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival LTO have a good record. Two-thirds of the winners also raced in a Grade 1 contest LTO.   French bred runners have won twice as often as they statistically should have done.   In terms of trainers there have been four wins for Messrs Henderson, Nicholls and King although Alan King’s last win was way back in 2013.   In terms of negatives, horses with very limited hurdling experience have performed poorly.

2.55 William Hill Bowl Steeplechase (Grade 1) 3m 1f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 10 wins from 27 for a break-even situation.
Market Rank: 17 wins from 27 for horses from the top two in the betting.
Last run: 21 of the last 27 winners raced LTO at the Cheltenham Festival – 15 of these 21 winners raced in the Gold Cup LTO.
Official Rating: Horses with an OR of 168 or more have won 14 of the races from just 39 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £23.50 (ROI +60.3%).
Aintree form: Horses that have previously won at Aintree and are unbeaten at the track have provided 5 winners from just 23 qualifiers for a profit of £6.30 (ROI +27.4%).
LTO Market Rank: 14 of the 27 winners were either favourite or second favourite on their most recent start. This equates to providing 52% of the winners from 33% of the total runners.
Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or cheekpieces have won 10 of the races from just 40 runners for a huge profit of £72.00 (ROI +180%).

OTHER STATS

Age: 16 wins from 102 (SR 15.7%) for 9yos or older; 11 wins from 88 (SR 12.5%) for 8yos or younger.
Trends Summary: A sensible starting point is focusing on horses that ran at the Cheltenham Festival, especially if they ran in the Gold Cup. The market has been a fairly good guide although field sizes are often quite small. Note any runner that has an OR of 168 or more as they have an outstanding record. Somewhat surprisingly horses wearing either cheekpieces or blinkers have performed extremely well. In terms of age there does seem that much in it with perhaps a slight preference to horses aged 9 or older. Horses that were favourite or second favourite on their most recent start win have done well, as have previous unbeaten runners at the track.

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