Matts Micro Systems for April

The flat season is almost upon us once again.  The start of the season is often a tricky time to come out on top with a lot of horses having not run for a while or if they have then it’s often a cobweb duster on the AW. 

Have they improved over the winter or will they need a run or two to get into stride? The questions are plentiful. 

Let’s see if we can find some answers by seeing if we can find some micro trainer systems for trainers that have proven successful during April over the last three seasons.

We’ll start, as usual, by getting together a list of trainers who might help us to achieve some profit in the early weeks of the season. 

We’ll take all those who have 10 wins or more and a positive A/E of 1.00 or more.

Here’s our list.

Let’s start at the top with Charlie Appleby.

A quick glance at his yearly record shows a loss for the last two seasons so we may have our work cut out here.  Not totally surprising as he’s a top trainer and it’s likely to be hard to find value on his horses.  Let’s see if we can find any angles.

A look through various filters doesn’t throw up too much. All of them lowered the losses but still remained losses in the last two seasons.

We’ll move on to KR Burke.

We have the reverse now. A very profitable year last April but losses in both 22 and 23.

Looking at the whole of the data it would appear that Handicaps and Novices are where most of his profit comes.  Non Handicap is also profitable so I’ll include that as well for now.

This brings things to a slightly better situation with the two losses now marginal.

Below we have a list of all the jockeys who have had winning rides on Burke’s horses within our data.

Some fascinating results for headgear now.  In a nutshell, if it has some, forget it!

These next two tables complement each other. 

Those who placed last time out are clearly fancied again and not profitable in their next race. 

Meanwhile if we look at the distances beaten in the last race it’s clear that these losses are coming from those who likely placed but finished very close up and may well have got a rise in their rating too.

Therefore I think it makes more sense to remove those who finished from <1 length to 3 lengths behind the winner.  This now gives us what should be a nice sized micro system for April and there will likely be around 20 bets for the month.

Here's the system rules.

On now to William Haggas.

This is how things look initially.

A look at tracks throws up this huge anomaly to the rest.

I guess at least with his yard being there he’s not wasting diesel! The last run stats show that those that finished in the first three or it was the horse’s maiden run were the only one’s showing a profitable and decent strike rate.

From there a look at when they last ran.

I found this table fascinating.  Basically, any horse that had a run in the last 150 days except for odds on favourites has not won. It’s not a huge amount but just 3 wins from 8 and as mentioned they were all odds on.  It would appear in April that our best bet is to take those who haven’t run for 151 days or more, so those who haven’t run since the last flat season.

This considerably narrows down our bets to a real micro system.

and the rules.

A quick look at Charles Hills reveals just 1 win from 22 last April so not much to work with there! Eve Johnson Houghton next.  This looks more encouraging with our starting position already looking very good.

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