Winning Racecourse Favourites

It’s hard to believe that we are already through the first five months of the year. In fact some of you could be reading this after four of the first five English Classics are already done and dusted.

June is a big month in the racing calendar. We start with Epsom Derby on June 1st. In the middle of the month we have the best flat racing festival in the world at Royal Ascot and five fantastic day’s racing. The month ends with Northumberland Plate Festival at Newcastle. Over the Irish Sea there’s also big racing action with the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes and the little matter of the Irish Derby at the Curragh.

In last months ‘Acorns’ article I liked at profitable Sires & courses. This month I’m back looking at Winning from a Racecourse Favourites perspective and how you can build a profitable betting portfolio that you can use for the rest of the flat season.

As ever the excellent Horse Race Base with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation. To obtain a decent sample size I have concentrated on those racecourses with over 100 qualifiers.

We all know favourites win more races than any other horse in a race and it’s obvious the bookmakers don’t tend to get it wrong very often. However, is there money to be made by backing favourites? Well if you have read any of my previous articles on favourites you will know the answer to that question.

Of course, there is. You just need to concentrate on the right ones.

Since the start of 2017 clear favourites have won over 34% of all turf flat races run in the United Kingdom. That also means they lost almost two-thirds of all races.

If you had backed every favourite, you would have lost £316.77 to a £1 Level Stake.

As we could have expected you can’t back favourites blind, it really is a quick route to the “betting poor house”. But there is money to be made backing favourites at certain racecourses.

So, which are the tracks you should be concentrating on? Here are the top eight performing racecourses ordered by Actual Versus Expected (A/E).

The top three tracks for favourite backers since the start of 2017 are Goodwood, York & Beverley and it’s with those three tracks that I will begin this research.

Goodwood Favourites

We don’t really want to back favourites at the course blind even at a profitable track like Goodwood. So, we need to do is dig further and find some angles to cut down the number of losing bets.

To begin I’m going to look at the Goodwood results by non-handicap & handicap races, race class and going.

Non Handicap & Handicap Races

Nothing much to see non-handicap races as expected have the highest winning percentage but handicaps favourites are performing 17% above market expectations which is good.

Race Class

Now looking at the fate of the favourites by race class.

The best value favourites have come at the opposite ends of the class scale with Class 1 favourites performing 23% above market expectations and those in the lowest grade performing 25% better than the market expected.

Going Description

Looking at the fate of the favourite by going description makes for interesting reading.

You might well have expected favourites to have done best on good or quicker ground but actually good to soft and soft have actually produced the best win strike rates and more importantly providing us punters with plenty of value in recent years.

Goodwood Favourite Micro Angles

There are two angles to work on using handicap races only.

Firstly, let's look at Class 5 handicaps.

Without adding any further rules, you can back favourites in this class of race blind.

System 13: Back Goodwood Class 5 Handicap Favourites.

The second Goodwood favourite micro angle requires the addition of some simple but logical rules.

• Last Time Out Placing: First or Second.
• Wins at The Track: 0
• Days Since Last Run: 25-days or less.

Such qualifiers have produced the following results:

26 winners from 56 runners 46% +38.97 A/E 1.61 37 placed 66%.

Summary: Backing favourites in all handicaps at the course that are race fit, that come into their race in form and have never won at Goodwood have provided favourite backers with some cracking profits since the start of 2017.

System 14: Back Goodwood Handicap Favourites, which had finished 1st or 2nd on their last run, had never won at the track and had run within the previous 25-days.

York Favourites

I was a little surprised to see York favourites performing so well. As with Goodwood we don’t want to back favourites here blind.

Let’s start by looking at the York by non-handicap & handicap races, race class and going.

Non-Handicap & Handicap Races

The win strike rate in non-handicap races is higher but handicap favourites have provided more in the way of value.

Race Class

Most of the profit has come in Class 3 or 4 races.

Going Description

In contrast to Goodwood where favourites on soft or good to soft going were outperforming favourites on quicker ground. At York there’s a more even spread of success across going description.

York Favourite Micro Angle

There is one angle to go with at York and once again it’s looking at handicap favourites. Adding these two simple rules:

• Wins at Track: 0.
• Day Since Last Run: 45-days or less.

These qualifiers have produced the following results:

30 winners from 83 runners 36% A/E 1.5 +49.21 48 placed 58%.

If you added a further rule:

Wins at Distance: 0.

Would have given you – 19 winners from 40 runners 48% +44 A/E 1.9 27 placed 68%.

System 15: Back York Handicap Favourites, that hadn’t won at the track previously and had run within the previous 45-days.

Beverley Favourites

Our final track is Beverley. As with the two previous courses let’s begin by looking at non-handicap & handicap races, race class and going.

Non-Handicap & Handicap Races

Non-handicap race favourites are performing well but the eye-catching set of results has come from favourites in handicap races at the course.

Race Class

The lower the class of the race the better favourites perform, in particular note the results in Class 6 races.

Going Description

Regarding going description favourites have been value bets on good to soft or good ground.

Beverley Favourite Micro Angle

As with Goodwood & York I’m concentrating on handicap favourites at Beverley. The base 36%-win strike rate is too good to resist. Especially, when we consider that favourites in handicap races have won 29% of all turf flat races run in the United Kingdom since 2017 with an A/E 0.95.

There is one angle to go with at York and one again its looking at handicap favourites. Adding these three simple rules:

• Race Class: 5 or 6 only.
• Runs at Track: 1+.
• Days Since Last Run: 25-days or less.

These qualifiers have produced the following results:

27 winners from 58 runners 47% +27.18 A/E 1.52 40 placed 69%

System 16: Back Beverley Handicap Favourites, in Class 5 or 6 races, that had run at the track at least once and were racing within 25-days of their last start.

In summary – Three tracks that have provided punters with some solid profits, If you had backed all the qualifiers from the above three micro angles you would have a profit of £115.36 to £1 Level stakes. all for backing favourites. It can sometimes be that simple.

It is important to remember that there won’t be many qualifiers during the season so there may well be too few bets for you, depending on your betting strategy.

Like many such methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

This article was first published in On Course Profits magazine, to read new articles first subscribe for free here https://www.oncourseprofits.com