In this article I am going to look at short distance Handicap Chases to try and establish whether there are any patterns and trends that will give us, the punter, an edge over the crowd.
I have decided on a maximum distance of 2m 2f and will looking at UK data from 1st Jan 2016 to 2nd December 2022 (which is the time when I started researching the piece).
Profit/losses have been calculated to backing at £1 level stakes using Betfair Starting Price (BSP).
Price – Let us looks at the market factors first.
I am breaking the prices down by Industry SP, but as stated earlier, any profit and loss will be calculated to BSP.
I have also added A/E indices (Actual / Expected) to all the tables – the average A/E index for all runners in these races stands at 0.89; hence scores above this suggest better value compared with the norm, scores below suggest poorer value.
An A/E index of 1.00 or more suggests real value.
The overall results for price are a little ‘mixed’ although in general I would generally be focusing my attention on the front end of the market – horses 6/1 or shorter. These horses combined would have lost you only 2.4 pence in the £ if you had backed every single one of them. Having that said, I would probably advise against backing any odds on runner.
Age – Time to look at the specific age of the horses now to see whether that gives us any useful pointers.
For the real old timers, I have grouped them together (12yo or older):
6yos have the best strike rate and edge into profit and generally as horses get past the age of 6 their win success rate starts to drop slightly year by year.
There may be some value in the older brigade, and this is despite 11yos having negative returns.
Horses aged 10 or older have combined to secure returns of over 7 pence in the £. Of course, we need to be aware that for profits to continue in the future, a few big, priced winners will need to hit their mark.
To discover the effects of finishing position last time out, days since last run, weight and the trainers who may offer the best returns over the shorter Handicap Chase distances, upgrade your account here and read the rest of Dave’s article.