Micro Systems (Well sort of…) – February and March
We’re back looking for “Micro” systems again this month but perhaps slightly larger in that we are going to look at the first quarter of the year on the NH. Essentially the last three months of the season. I guess we need a name, a bit of sporting play on words perhaps? Quarter Backs? I’ll get my coat…
The first thing we need to do is to narrow down some National Hunt trainers to work with.
To get some candidate trainers let’s rank them for each year based on their records during the first three months of 2022, 2023 and 2024. I ranked them on three different categories.
The number of wins each had accumulated. Their winning strike rate for each year and finally their A/E figure. I then totalled them all up and ranked them in order.
I’ve removed the likes of Skelton, Mullins, Nicholls, and Murphy who, it’s probably fair to say, are going to be generally over bet.
That’s not to say we couldn’t profit from them and that there are not systems there to be had but I want to focus more on the less high profile trainers where we might find some better value as well.
These are the five we will be concentrating on for the first quarter of 2025:
C. Gordon, Miss Kerry Lee, T. Lacey, B. Ellison, and NG Richards.
Their records for the last three year for January, February and March read as follows…
Each trainer has an overall profit with a good ROI. All bar one shows a place profit and each of them has a nice A/E and a decent strike rate for the three years. Hopefully from that we can drill down and get some “micro” systems for the first quarter of 2025.
First up we’ll take a look at Ellison’s stats.
Taking a look at Race Type shows us that the majority of his wins (all bar 2) have come in the following four race types so that is where we will concentrate our efforts.
All bar one race type is in profit and the strike rates are consistent with or better than his overall figures.
If we now take a look at how the jockeys, he has used have fared we are left with a total of seven of them who have had wins on his horses as we can see below.
Brian Hughes has made a small loss to BSP but I’m inclined to keep him in there.
I’ve had a look through various other potential filters and none of them really show anything that would be worth adding to our simple filters that we already have.
There’s no reason to complicate it if it is not necessary.
Adding filters for the sake of it will just lead to back fitting it so I think we shall keep it nice and simple here, so this is our first system.
Next up is Gordon
Our jockey list for Gordon throws up three immediate candidates. Well, in truth, it was actually four but one of them, Jamie Moore, was from a couple of years back and has since retired.
These look very promising. There’s a good quantity of rides for each and all three with a 25% or higher strike rate. It looks like he didn’t use Cannon in 2024 but we’ll keep him listed anyway in case he does use him this year.
Now let’s take a look at the race types and the best of them are listed below:
Novice hurdles have a decent strike rate and a decent A/E but given the lack of profit and the low average Betfair Win odds plus a big place loss I’m not going to include them.
A look at where the horses finished last time out throws up a very interesting table!
Those winning or finishing second produced a record of 6/24 next time out. Not bad at all, but probably to be expected and that would appear to be the case as it produced an overall loss. This suggests that those that won were well fancied on their next run and consequently not of much value, with the winners coming at significantly lower odds than any other position and not really doing anything other than what they were expected to do in the market.
Removing those gives us the following stats.
And our jockeys…
This is really pleasing to see.
All jockeys still have a great strike rate, are in profit and an each has a very positive A/E. Both win and place show a profit.
We have ourselves a potentially nice little system here if things can continue in a similar vein.
That of course is always the question but it definitely looks promising.
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