Hi All
Last month we touched on how the Adrian Massey portal can still be very useful and relevant, let alone being a free resource to boot!
We highlighted one of the sites features regarding a method of how to evaluate horse racing trainers and their respective performances relative to the market expectation based on the returned Starting Prices.
By way of a reminder this is how the Adrian Massey portal explains their calculations: –
Trainer Ratings
It is well known that some trainers train a lot more winners than others. That might be because they are better trainers, but it might be because they have more horses, or better horses, than the other trainers. Some trainers have many followers, so their horses, tend to have SPs which are shorter than they otherwise would be. Likewise, some trainers have few followers so their horses tend to have SPs which are longer than they otherwise would be.
What is important for the backer (or layer) is to know whether the horses of a particular trainer perform better or worse than expected according to the SPs of the horses. For example, do the 10-1 shots of Trainer A tend to perform better or worse than those of Trainer B.
These ratings are an attempt to indicate which trainers are better or worse than average, taking into account the SPs of the horses that they train.
The ratings are calculated as follows: –
Firstly, by analysing a lot of races, the AM site has calculated the average finishing position of horses at all different values of SP.
The finishing positions are expressed in 3 different ways: –
Win Percentage: For example, Horses with a SP of 3-1 on average may win 23% of the time.
Place Percentage: For example, Horses with a SP of 6-4 on average may be placed 62% of the time.
Percentage of Other Horses Beaten: For example, in an 11 runner race, the winner has beaten 100% of the other horses; the horse on last place has beaten 0% of the other horses, while the horse in 6th place has beaten 50% of the other horses (5 in front and 5 behind).
It may be those horses with a SP of 2-1 beat 78% of the other horses on average while horses at 10-1 beat 37%.
Secondly, the finishing position of each of a particular trainer's horses are compared to the average for horses at that SP. Taking an average of these comparisons gives a rating for the trainer.
A rating greater than 100 indicates that the trainer whose horses tend to finish in a better position than average, while a rating less than 100 indicates the opposite.
Trainers with higher ratings should give better value to the backer.
Further development
Now whilst we initially used the Trainer Ratings to examine a handful of specific trainers, hopefully the suggested angles in last month’s piece will be positive, we decided to investigate a day to day use that would highlight some potentially profitable selections.
One of the longer standing members of On Course Profits, Kieran O’Hagan, planted a seed regarding a metric called “Percentage of horses beaten” and since the 25th of June we have been incorporating the “PHB” factor into the daily deliberations for the OCP Daily Picks.
Whilst at the time of writing there have only been 7 weeks of selections the results have been very encouraging with 23 winners/placers from the 68 selections and a cracking return on stakes using the Betfair SP less 5% comms.
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With that in mind it made sense to explore if there was a way, we could combine both the Trainer Ratings which are based on a rolling 12 month period with the most recent 14 day results of the PRB metric.
The theory being we already know from the Trainer Ratings that certain yards are outperforming the market expectation over the 12 month period, but if they are also in a current rich vein of form we could strike whilst the iron is hot so to speak.
So, what is the PRB metric…here is what our good friends at Geegeez had to say on the topic: –
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Stay safe
Steve Carter
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Featured Image: 1st Place Horse | Horse by first sign | Paul | Flickr