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Research Corner – Something a little different?

At the recent Cheltenham Festival, a particular owner enjoyed a productive time with three individual winners from seven runners, but the unusual aspect was this owner was more well known for their exploits on the Flat.

The Cheverly Park Stud is renowned as one of the most successful thoroughbred stud farms in Europe and is situated in Newmarket, England which is the ancestral home of horse racing.

Having made the decision a few years ago to expand their activities into the National Hunt scene they remarkably were crowned as the leading owner at the Cheltenham Festival for the second consecutive year.

To my mind that shows the kind of flexible organisation that should be on my radar when it comes to sorting the wheat from the chaff in my pursuit of winners.

Given where we are in the racing calendar it makes sense to initially focus on the Flat season as by the time this research piece is published, we will be a shade over three weeks into the new Turf campaign.

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First off how did the Cheveley Park Stud perform in terms of prize money etc. in the latest year?

In terms of prize money Cheveley Park Stud finished in 6th place during 2021 and possibly a little surprising the above table would indicate that that a modest profit would have been made blindly backing all of their runners during that 12 month period.

The 20% Strike Rate also catches the eye and close to halve of their runners were able to win a race during the same period.

If we expand our research period, we find the following during the past 3 years. The data covers UK races on the Turf and All Weather.

If we consider the Actual vs Expected we could fairly conclude that this indicates an improving profile so hopefully that trait will continue and provide us with some future punting opportunities.

How did the Turf runners fare in comparison to those on the artificial surfaces?

Although the Strike Rate is marginally higher for the AW runners the A/E would seem to imply that they performed below the level of market expectation.

It could be that such a high profile owner’s runner’s stand out somewhat when competing at the likes of Kempton and Newcastle.

At first glance one of the AW tracks appeared to be an exception, namely Wolverhampton, which showed a profit at Betfair of 24pts from 50 odd runners.

However, a win by Benefit in September 2021 paid 42.00 on the exchange and was the reason that the Midlands venue appeared to be profitable.

So, we will move on and take a closer look at the Flat Turf records starting with a breakdown of trainers that had 10 or more runners for Cheveley Park Stud during the latest 3 campaigns.

Given that Cheveley Park Stud are based in Newmarket it comes as no real surprise that the top three trainers in terms of number of winners are also based there.

At the opposite end of the winner spectrum, it is slightly surprising that Roger Varian has only trained 2 winners from 49 runners, whilst the performance of the Cheveley Park Stud owned runners in the care of Richard Fahey also looks pretty low key at less than 12%.

The following yards seem to be the ones that we should be concentrating on going forward.

System 75: Back the runners owned by Cheveley Park Stud when trained by William Haggas, Sir Michael Stoute, John/Thady Gosden and Clive Cox when they are entered to run in Flat Turf races.

For Gold readers we dig deeper into the Cheveley stats and share a system that will turn a good profit from the star sire at Cheveley. If you would like to upgrade to Gold you can do that HERE.

Until next time

Steve Carter

Featured Image: © Copyright Keith Evans and licensed for reuse under this Creative Commons Licence