What does the formbook say about odds-on favourites in Ireland?
What I like about these articles is their narrow focus on niche areas of horse racing. Last month we looked at the Summer Jumps, where most punters are eyeing the Turf Flat Season.
In this article, we look at Ireland and Northern Ireland racing. Our focus narrows further towards odds-on favourites.
There are some very interesting and profitable angles to be had focusing on these odds on favourites in Ireland. Here I’ll look at the last 10 years’ worth of data. All results are recorded to Betfair Starting Price. Please note that the odds on favourites are odds on with the bookmakers. They may breach 2.00 decimal odds on Betfair.
Jockey Declan McDonagh.
I don’t know if it’s the pressure of being on an apparent ‘sure thing’ but Declan McDonagh has a torrid time on odds on favourites in Ireland. £100 into £242 laying his rides to £10 backer’s stake. Profit rises marginally laying his selections to a fixed liability of £10.
A poor 52.3% strike rate and a recent run of 11 of his last 14 odds on favourites losing their races.
You know what to do when you see this jockey on an odds on favourite. The dread in his face should be clear to see!
Jockeys claiming 5lbs.
This weight off the horse’s back seems to benefit these odds on favourites. Backers may want to focus on a FIXED staking plan. This staking plan is also known as a target profit per race staking plan. The target in this case is 5% of a rolling betting bank.
£100 into £320 using £100 starting bank using this staking plan might be worthy of your attention. 2023 and 2024 have seen good profits.
Trainer Mrs. John Harrington.
A similar strike rate to Declan McDonagh assures profit for the layer of odds on favourites £100 into £268 to £10 backer’s stake. To a fixed liability of £10, you’ll make more money (£328). Why? Well, the shorter the odds of any losing selection the bigger the return.
5 furlong sprints.
These races are short and to the point. Any slovenly exit from the stalls will leave horses in trouble. Odds on favourites in Ireland are to be layed in 5 furlong sprints. £100 into £281 to £10 backer’s stake is enhanced slightly with laying to a fixed liability.
If you’d like a chance at an even bigger return, lay these odds on favourites using the Lay 1-4 staking plan (covered in the video). £100 into £850 to £10 starting stakes.
A 46.9% strike rate assures layers profits to date.
8 runs in the last year.
Experience for these odds on favourites seems important. Profits have been eye catching particularly since 16th September 2019. A 13.7 point profit for the backer to level stakes impresses. 8/9 recent winners and we are 2/2 in 2024.
Horse Country USA
Are the trainers feeding these USA horses a USA diet of burgers, supersized fries, and donuts? Their record is great news for you layers. £100 into £266.70 to £10 backer’s stake. Profit is enhanced to fixed liability of £10 (£100 into £383).
A 46.8% strike rate. Consistent years of profits. I like the profile here.
Limerick
Since 2nd December 2016, layers have prospered at Limerick. £242 to £10 backer’s stake since that date impresses. The gloss has been taken off somewhat by 5 winners in the last 6 qualifying races. The long term prognosis might interest you.
Punchestown
Backers of odds on favourites here have really profited, particularly since 30th January 2023 16.8 points profit to Level stakes since that date impresses. We are on a current winning run of 7.
LTO Curragh
Get ‘em while they’re NOT too hot. The recent trend (since 18th September 2020) has been in laying these odds on favourites. £200 profit to £10 backer’s stake for the layer impresses. Note that these are qualifiers whose last run was at the Curragh. A key distinction.
Novice LTO
That LTO stands for Last Time Out. Backers might want to note any odds on favourite whose last run was in a Novice race. A slight loss for 2024 should not overtly worry, with the hope that 2023, 2022, and 2021 profits will help alleviate concerns. £100 into £326 to £10 level stakes.
Sire Country Australia.
Strewth mate, are these Aussie horses wearing budgie smugglers? Since 1st October 2021, they’ve been hot for the layers. £104.50 to £10 backer’s stake.
7 of the last 11 odds on favourites whose sires wear a corked hat and have a big knife have lost their races.
Sire Milan
Layers might want to follow the progeny of sire Milan. £100 into £260 to level backer’s stakes (£10) and a solid looking profit graph. It seems this sire’s progeny ply their trade over the jumps mostly. 7 of the last 9 qualifiers lost their race. NO qualifiers yet in 2024.
Stall 3
I see no rhyme or reason why stall 3 should have any significance but the stats are clear. A 47.8% strike rate suggests layers are on top when odds on favourites come out of stall 3.
£100 into £414 to £10 backer’s stake. Laying to a fixed liability of £10 boosts that £10 to £644.
Conclusions
It can be a tricky task to extricate value from a focus on odds on favourites in Ireland but I hope I have given you something to think about here. Here are my eyecatchers.
- Backers: 8 runs in the last year; Favourites running in Novice races Last Time Out
- Layers: Take your pick! The value is with the layer isn’t it, particularly to a fixed liability where you will get paid more money the shorter the odds of any losing favourite.
Clive Keeling
What Really Wins Money
