First up we are going to look back on last issues highlighted trainers and the suggested systems to see how we are currently fairing.
It is early days with just two weeks into the new year, so we need to allow for some patience as we progress through the first quarter of the year.
Barry (B) Connell (Ireland)
System 70: JO-98-70-01-23-OCP-NH Trainers-B Connell-1st Qtr.
Back Barry (B) Connell’s National Hunt runners (Not Novices) during the first quarter of 2023.
Just two runners to date, both of which finished in the places, a second at 6/1 in a 25 runner race at Naas and a third placer at 20/1 at Fairyhouse in a 21 runner race. Doh should have backed them each way!! Hindsight is such a wonderful thing…
Still, it does demonstrate at least that the runners are trying in their races.
We are feeling optimistic.
Back Kieran Burke’s National Hunt Handicap runners during the first quarter of 2023.
No runners to date.
Back Chris Gordons Hurdle and NHF runners (excluding Novices and Maidens) for the first quarter of 2023.
Three runners to date, two of which have Pulled Up in their races and a placed third at 11/2.
Still early days.
Follow Richard Bandey’s National Hunt runners for the first quarter of 2023.
A less than promising start with just three runners, but two Pulled Up in their races and the third finished as an unplaced favourite at 13/8f…this one may need some careful watching.
System 74: JO-98-74-01-23-OCP-NH Trainers-A West-1st Qtr.
Follow Adam West’s National Hunt runners in the first quarter of 2023 to Win Only.
Just one runner to date which finished unplaced at 11/1.
Further Trainers of Interest.
There are four trainers which appear to have got off to a flying start in January 2023, Sandy Thomson (that name has cropped up in previous issues), Sue Smith, Stuart Edmunds and Mrs Jane Williams.
Sandy Thomson we already have an Approved system for Sandy Thomson which our Platinum members receive the selections for. (You can upgrade your account here).
The system AP-71-53-10-20, originally flagged up in October 2020 has proven lucrative.
From the date of publication to the end of 2020 the system produced a modest strike rate of around 17.00% but landed a 66/1 winner in Yorkhill at Newcastle on 28th November, and the 2020/2021 season proved a healthy profit overall.
2021/2022 though showed a significant loss and we were ready to throw in the towel, but one bad year, however bad, doesn’t necessarily make a poor trainer and the system had been highly lucrative the previous year so it seemed only fair to see what 2022/2023 could offer.
October to December 2022 saw a return of some of the profits with an almost 25% strike rate and profits of +19.21 points to ISP and +22.67 points to BFSP. (Interestingly we have noted that the differential in returns over the past 12 months or so between ISPs and BFSPs are diminishing).
2023 has got off to a slow start with 2 winners from 5 runners and we would have banked +3.08 pts (ISP) so we will keep a careful eye on this, but for now we will continue with the Sandy Thomson chasers.
Mrs Sue Smith
Sue Smith is a trainer we have never quite got to grips with, but 2023 has got off to a flying start, and we may have missed the boat here.
Historically we have picked up on her runners during the early part of the year, but we have never quite managed to turn things into a profit. It may be that we are always one step behind. To that end we are hereby taking note of Sue Smith’s runners for January 2024!
Since 2013, had you backed ALL her runners blindly during the month of January you would have made a profit of +177.27points to ISP, with just a small loss of 3.33points in January 2012 and 4.43 points in January 2021.
January 2023 would have already seen you land 3 winners from 6 runners and a profit of +39.50 points.
System 02 – AP 99-02-02-23 – Back Sue Smith runners blindly during the month of January in 2024. (We will update the website with the system shortly).
Nothing like a little forward planning and yes, we have sent this straight to the Approved Section.
Stuart Edmunds won the 2021 Jockey Club “McCoy’s Leading Trainer award” in the category with less than 40 horses.
From the age of 14 Edmunds was working his way through the ranks and reaching assistant trainer to Miss Renne Robson before taking over the yard and her training license following her untimely death in January 2015.
Edmunds holds a dual licence but the largest percentage of his runners are run in National Hunt races so we will concentrate our analysis there.
Since 2015 backing his National Hunt runners blindly would have seen you lose almost 118 points, so we need to find where, if anywhere the winners have come from in the past and more importantly, have they been profitable?
There are a couple of standout tracks over the years, in particular Fakenham and Sandown.
The majority of those profits came though in 2018 and 2019, though in fairness you would have only of made a loss backing his runners blindly at these tracks in 3 of the last 8 years, with the largest loss being 7.00 points, so not detrimental to the betting bank.
Again, we may have missed the bulk of any profits but December through to the end of February have been where almost 80% of the profits have come from.
We think we will take a watching brief with this one for February with a view to possibly adding in for a further review for December this year.
System 100: JO-99-100-02-23 – Follow Stuart Edmunds’s National Hunt runners during December through to the end of February when running at Fakenham and Sandown (and we will review again at the end of February). (We will update the website with the system shortly).
Mrs Jane Williams
It’s very easy to get excited when you see a 41.67% strike rate and a profit, but we need to hold fire here!
Jane Williams was originally partner to Nick Williams and obviously played an important part in the set up at the Williams stable but following their split she has her own name as trainer against those horses carrying her colours, as worn by Tea For Two’s jockey.
An article in the Racing Post highlighted back in September 2022 that there had been some problems for Jane Williams with depression, struggling to raise money and the injury sustained to her son Chester following a schooling accident all meaning that the stable was in her words “under a cloud” with the horses having had “something not right with them”.
September through to the end of December 2022 showed a mere 10.00% strike rate and a 25.00% place strike rate and so we are not yet convinced that she is firing on all four hooves. To that end, and probably to our detriment we will just keep a watchful eye on runners from Jane Williams’s stable.