What does the formbook say about Sharp courses?
This month we focus on race courses described as ‘Sharp’ . Here’s the list :
Aintree , Bangor-on-Dee , Brighton , Cartmel, Catterick, Chester, Epsom, Fakenham, Fontwell, Goodwood, Hereford, Kelso, Kempton, Lingfield, Market Rasen, Musselburgh, Newton Abbot, Plumpton, Ripon, Sedgefield, Southwell, Stratford, Taunton, Warwick, Windsor, Wolverhampton, Chelmsford City.
We look at the performance of favourites over the last 10 years, calculated to Betfair Starting Price. We’ll take a first look at the most profitable betting angles first where profit has breached £1000 to £10 stakes.
11 runs in the last year
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1001 to £10 level stakes backing at odds of between 1.01 and 5.00 34.8% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.37
Longest Winning Sequence : 6
Longest Losing Sequence : 17
SPECIAL REMARKS : Marginal loss in 2024 but the long term prognosis is good.
151 to 200 miles travelled to the course
LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £1209 to £10 fixed liability
68% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.45
Longest Winning Sequence : 23
Longest Losing Sequence : 6
SPECIAL REMARKS : Good profit since 2022 but 2023 to present shows a loss. Faith in the long term?
20 DSLR ( Days Since Last Run)
LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £1299 to £10 backer’stake
85.5% strike rate
Average Odds : 5.11
Longest Winning Sequence :45
Longest Losing Sequence : 4
SPECIAL REMARKS : Bank never in the negative. Laying to a £10 fixed liability has tripled the bank and may appeal to the risk averse. Both Backer’s Stake and Fixed Liability Profits have been made by laying at odds of >4.00 decimal
Headgear H LTO ( Last Time Out)
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1451 to £10 level stakes
38.6% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.21
Longest Winning Sequence :11
Longest Losing Sequence : 10
SPECIAL REMARKS : These outstanding profits are made with a focus on favourites priced at >=1.01 to <=5.00 decimal odds. Bank never bankrupt. A fascinating angle. Positive reaction to the REMOVAL of headgear. Not normally the case. This could be a good angle to follow up on in a separate article.
LTO ( Last Time Out) Distance 24 Furlongs ( 3 miles)
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1473 to £10 level stakes
37.5% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.52
Longest Winning Sequence :9
Longest Losing Sequence : 16
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt.Profitable 2024. Particularly strong profit from November 2019 to date.
21 to 30 miles travelled to the course
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1502 to £10 backer’s stake
34.4% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.62
Longest Winning Sequence : 7
Longest Losing Sequence : 15
SPECIAL REMARKS : Bank never in the negative. Horses close to the sharp courses are clearly advantaged when favourite.
Easy Course LTO ( Last time out)
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £1577 to £10 level stakes
36.4% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.40
Longest Winning Sequence :8
Longest Losing Sequence : 13
SPECIAL REMARKS : What an interesting angle. Favourites transitioning from Easy Courses to Sharp Courses are worth backing. Easy Courses : Huntingdon ; Ludlow ; Perth ; Thirsk ; Uttoxeter ; Ballinrobe ; Bellewstown ; Cork ; Dundalk ; Fairyhouse ; Killarney ; Laytown ; Limerick ; Listowel ; Sligo ; Tipperary .
Other Notables…
Trainer Tim Easterby
LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £354 to £10 fixed liability
75.2% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.79
Longest Winning Sequence : 12
Longest Losing Sequence : 4
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt. Great profit graph despite the modest profit. A greater profit to a £10 backer’s stake for the layer.
DAMSIRE ANSHAN
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £618 to £10 level stakes
45.7% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.21
Longest Winning Sequence : 6
Longest Losing Sequence : 6
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt. Breeding is a really good angle to look at for different course characteristics.
DAMSIRE CADEAUX GENEREUX
LAY BACKER’S STAKES – £100 into £624 to £10 backer’s stakes
75.1% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.47
Longest Winning Sequence : 10
Longest Losing Sequence : 4
SPECIAL REMARKS : The other side of breeding! Progeny of this damsire simply do not handle sharp tracks. Boost profits laying using the 1-4 Staking Plan.
Trainer Marco Botti
LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £648 to £10 backer’s stakes
69.8% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.29
Longest Winning Sequence :20
Longest Losing Sequence : 5
SPECIAL REMARKS : Slight blip lately ( 3 winners in 4) has been corrected with 4 consecutive losers.
HEADGEAR P1 ( cheekpieces worn for the first time)
LAY FIXED LIABILITY – £100 into £695 to £10 fixed liability
73.3% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.57
Longest Winning Sequence : 17
Longest Losing Sequence : 5
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt. Great profit graph. Still profits by laying to a backer’s stake but the high point profit wise was back in November 2020 . Catching up slowly though. Clearly headgear, used to try and help horses run better, is a great hindrance here.
Drawn 4 LTO ( Last Time Out)
LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £751 to £10 level stakes
67.8% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.44
Longest Winning Sequence :19
Longest Losing Sequence : 8
SPECIAL REMARKS : Particularly good profits from June 2018 to date – £100 into £1299
81.8% strike rate if laying favourites whose are are greater than 4.00 decimal odds.
CLASS H LTO ( Last Time Out)
LAY BACKER’S STAKE – £100 into £763 to £10 level stakes
66.6% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.10
Longest Winning Sequence :19
Longest Losing Sequence : 7
SPECIAL REMARKS : None
LTO ( Last Time Out) Course Musselburgh
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £841 to £10 level stakes
34.3% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.68
Longest Winning Sequence :6
Longest Losing Sequence : 16
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt.Profitable 2024. Particularly strong profit from November 2020 to date.
HEADGEAR H ( Hood)
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £899 to £10 level stakes
35.6% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.53
Longest Winning Sequence : 14
Longest Losing Sequence : 12
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt. A focus on favourites at less than or equal to 2.00 ( evens) has produced a superb run or 1st or 2nd placers recently ( the last 21 qualifiers have finished either first or 2nd. Experiment with an 80/20 play? 80% stake on the place, 20% to win?)
Sire Mahler
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £976 to £10 level stakes
47.7% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.22
Longest Winning Sequence :6
Longest Losing Sequence : 10
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt.Profitable 2024
Sire Exceed and Excel
BACK LEVEL STAKES – £100 into £976 to £10 level stakes
36.1% strike rate
Average Odds : 3.55
Longest Winning Sequence :6
Longest Losing Sequence : 15
SPECIAL REMARKS : Never bankrupt.Profitable 2024
Conclusions
It is becoming clear that the course characteristics have an impact on the performance of favourites. On 4 occasions, breeding played a key part. The old adage ‘horses for courses’ wrings true here.
The most notable profit came after favourites switched from Easy courses last time out, to Sharp courses this time.
Certain trainers interestingly tend to perform very poorly when their horses are favourite on sharp race courses. Why? Are their ‘home’ courses or home gallops of a different layout?
One last element is headgear. The hood , worn last time out, has produced a good profit, as has a hood worn by the favourite this time out. We expect headgear to logically engender positive change but this is not the case when favourites on sharp courses wear cheekpieces for the first time.
I have stopped doing accompanying videos as I am duplicating information. You should have a clear guide in past videos where to find the pertinent information , particularly LTO ( last time out) in order to find qualifiers.
These angles are clearly worth pursuing!
Clive Keeling
