Your October Micro Systems
As I write this month’s article, August has just come to an end and with it so do August’s Micro Systems. The theme continues and hopefully will forever more! In short, a mixed bag, some profits, some losses, some ups and downs across the month, a couple of nice winners and a month ending overall profit.
Here’s a look in detail at how it all panned out.
We ended the month with seven systems in profit and eight not. All adding up to a total profit on the win side of things for a very nice month’s end of 43.10pts.
It’s worth noting for clarity that my actual totals were a couple of points higher. The filter of the number horses that won their last race can be changed by a late non runner which might result in a horse on that system now qualifying. As such that means those systems that have that filter could have the odd extra qualifier.
Evidently there were a couple of those which must have both lost. I’ve included them here as they are recorded in the totals. I take the qualifiers at around 9am each morning and don’t look again.
David O’Meara was the standout trainer with a cracking month thanks to a couple of nice winners. There were no real bad ones like last month’s Fahey. Joseph O’Brien was 0 for 8 but that wasn’t a total shock as it was a system that was having a go at picking up a big priced winner. Unfortunately, it didn’t happen but for a few bets it was worth the chance.
It was also particularly satisfying to pick up a good priced winner on Aiden O’Brien as it’s not something that comes along very often but on the 14th August Two For Joy provided just that taking the spoils with a very nice BSP of 22.00!
The Win strike rate for the month came in at 23.13% with a nice A/E of 1.14. Collecting 37 winners against expected BSP wins of 32.49. Let’s hope September takes a similar path! It’s now time for October’s Micro Systems.
Our Trainer list this month is a free for all regarding codes as the All Weather will be up and running as will the National Hunt, while the Flat will be heading towards a close. Therefore we’ll run it with all codes and see who it throws up. Our trainer list is fairly lengthy this month but a lot of those are showing big minuses so I imagine there’ll be several that are not viable.
Our profitable jockeys using that list of trainers are as follows.
We’ll begin with Charlie Appleby.
Race Types first. While far from awful, Handicaps and Novices strike rates are some way down from the other types and, also more or less break even and reduce our bets by a sizeable chunk so we’ll start by removing those.
A look at horse age suggests we should stick to his 2 year old runners during October.
And this gives us our first micro system for the month.
Here are the horseracebase settings.
Nothing there for Balding. Ralph Beckett next.
Lots of runners at first glance here and a look at old favourite, number of horses who won their last race gives us an immediate chance to massively reduce our number of runners.
None or just one horse within the race who won last time out is where the profit and strike rate is clearly at its best. This removes 70 bets with no loss of profit and an increase in strike rate. There’s another straightforward one to remove here. Handicap Nurseries, where he is 0 for 15 over the last three October’s. There’s possibly a case for removing Handicaps as well here as the strike rate is low and it’s not much more than break even profit wise.
A final filter here for the best position in their last three races. We’re actually removing profit here in the form of two big winners but we are reducing the bets to a more micro system size and increasing our strike rate by some margin.
All of which leaves us with this. A bit of a sketchy 2022 but profitable nonetheless and 2023 and 2024 have improved upon each previous year as well.
Here are the horseracebase settings.
Nothing for Boughy.
Henry De Bromhead.
A look at NH race type shows us that the profit appears to be in Chases during October.
And from within those Chases we see that Novice Chases have drawn a blank.
This leaves us with a micro system that had a lot more runners last year than the two previous but kept a similar strike rate.
Here are the horseracebase settings:
Next up, Karl Burke.
A quick look and it is clear that Non Handicaps are the way to go.
And that with our jockeys give us this.
A blank from just 5 bets in 2022 followed by two very nice October’s. Will this year see a third?
Here are the horseracebase settings:
Now for Simon Crisford.
Race Types.
We’ll remove Non Handicap races as they’ve drawn a blank from 9 runs.
And that’s enough for a little micro system. Bets have decreased each year so whether we’ll get many is questionable but we shall see.
Here are the horseracebase settings:
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