Systems for Summer Jumping in the UK
With the focus at this time of the year on flat racing, we should be aware that there will be betting opportunities over the jumps as well. In this article I am going to look at some National Hunt systems that would have produced some good profits over the past few years.
My focus is on the summer months only of June, July and August for UK National Hunt racing going back to 2018.
Profits / losses have been calculated to Betfair SP less 2% on winning bets.
Trainer / Course systems
To begin with let me share some systems where trainers have done well at specific courses during these months.
Essentially the system would have been back any of the following trainer / course combinations.
This is for ALL races at a given track, and there must have been at least 40 runners for each trainer at a particular course to qualify.
I have ordered them by win strike rate:
Some impressive strike rates here and most of these trainer course combinations have made significant profits, with all bar two hitting an A/E index of over 1.00.
Any A/E index above 1.00 suggests that the runners have been good value.
I would like to dig deeper into some of these combos starting with Gordon Elliott and his runners at Perth.
When Sean Bowen has been riding at the Scottish track, Elliott’s figures are even better with 22 wins from 46 (SR 47.8%) for a profit of £41.38 (ROI +90%). Elliott’s handicap runners have done particularly well (both hurdle and chase) thanks to 24 wins from 70 runners (SR 34.3%) for a BSP profit of £46.48 (ROI +66.4%).
The Bowen stable’s profits at Worcester have been skewed considerably by a 232.89 priced winner back in 2018. However, their record has been consistent making decent returns of over 50p in the £ in four of the years. They have an outstanding record when the horse has started favourite on the Exchanges with 17 wins from just 24 runners (SR 70.8%) for a profit of £27.86 (ROI +116.1%).
In fact, they have done well with all runners that have been near the top end of the market. If restricting qualifiers to those that had a BSP of 9.0 or shorter their record reads 29 winners from 63 (SR 46%) for a profit to £1 level stakes of £59.68 (ROI +94.7%).
Sticking with the Bowen yard at Ffos Las they have also done well with runners priced 9.0 or less on the Betfair machine. Here they have had 13 winners from 28 runners (SR 46.4%) for a profit of £19.09 (ROI +68.2%).
Olly Murphy at Uttoxeter has done particularly well with his male runners. They have secured a strike rate of 30.2% thanks to 19 winners from 63. Backing them all would have secured a profit of £38.10 (ROI +60.5%).
Ben Haslam had a 75.0 winner at Cartmel in a hurdle race back in 2020 which has accounted for around 55% of his overall profits. However, he has done well in handicap chases thanks to 10 winners from 35 (SR 28.6%). Profits stand at +£28.20 equating to returns of nearly 81 pence in the £.
Before moving on I just want to mention two of the big guns, namely Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls.
They each have a very good record at one particular course but from smaller sample sizes.
Henderson has won 10 races from 20 (SR 50%) at Newton Abbot producing a healthy £31.27 profit (ROI +156.3%).
Meanwhile, Nicholls at Stratford has saddled 10 winners from 22 runners (SR 45.5%) producing returns of just over 47 pence in the £.
Favourites Systems
Backing all favourites in these summer months over the period of study would have lost you less than 1 pence in the £. So, there should be some angles to exploit.
There is one course where favourites have done very well and that is at Market Rasen from a decent number of runners. 118 favourites have been successful from 299 runners (SR 39.5%) securing a profit of £22.88 (ROI +11%).
Favourites at Market Rasen in non handicap hurdle races have really shone hitting an amazing strike rate of over 64% (38 wins from 59).
Profits to BSP stand at a tidy £21.81 equating to nearly 37 pence in the £.
Favourites in handicap chases have made a small profit, but if we restrict qualifiers to older aged runners (those 8 or older) the record reads 171 wins from 479 qualifiers (SR 35.7%) for a profit of £58.27 (ROI +12.3%).
Their A/E index stands at a very healthy 1.05. These older aged handicap chase favourites have made a blind profit in each of the last five years.
Sticking with market leaders in handicap chases, there are three trainers whose records are worth sharing.
All three should be noted if saddling the favourite in a summer handicap chase.
Finally in terms of favourites, do not be put off by a horse that was well beaten last time out that starts favourite next time.
Horses that were beaten by more than 15 lengths on their most recent start have still managed to bounce back and produce a level stakes profit when starting favourite.
You would have made £35.93 backing them at £1 level stakes (ROI +9%) due to 147 of the 404 qualifiers winning.
LTO Position Based Systems
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