Jockeys on the Flat
There are numerous approaches punters take. Some use systems rigidly; some form read; some use ratings in some way be it computer generated, purchased or DIY ones. Others follow tipsters, some follow specific trainers, some follow their favourite jockeys. For this article I am going to share some of my latest research on jockeys.
A fair proportion of part time punters use jockeys as the prime source of their selection method. Indeed, you occasionally see in the newspaper stories about big wins on individual jockey via accumulators; Frankie Dettori and his 7 timer at Ascot all those years ago springs to mind. This method of backing your favourite jockey often lumping them into multiple bets is generally a way to the poorhouse and this article looks at more logical and sensible ways to bet on jockeys.
From a personal point of view, I do have an opinion on which jockeys I think are good and those I think are not, but it is not usually a huge consideration when I am deciding upon a bet. This article spans 2014 to 2021 focusing on UK flat racing (turf and all weather). All profits and losses quoted have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP) less 5% commission. For the first part of the article, I have only considered jockeys who have had at least 500 rides during the period of study.
The strike rate of individual jockeys varies markedly. Clearly jockeys that ride for top trainers are going to win more often than jockeys that do not. There are three jockeys who have managed a strike rate of 20% or more since 2014 which is very impressive – these being Frankie Dettori (22.4%); William Buick (20.2%) and Ryan Moore (20.0%). At the other end of the scale, we have ten jockeys who have scored under 6% of the time.
180 jockeys have ridden 500 times or more during this time frame and surprisingly you actually would have made a blind BSP profit on 53 of them. However, you would have made losses on the other 127. The majority of those in positive figures is basically down to luck; usually one or two huge, priced winners on Betfair which skew the figures in their favour. Indeed, one jockey, whom I won’t mention, who had an overall win strike rate of just 3.9%, managed to secure Betfair SP profits of £282.93 (ROI +43.5%). Digging deeper this jockey had one winner that paid over 570/1 after commission on Betfair; ……… enough said!
Frankie Dettori, William Buick and Jim Crowley are three jockeys that have made good overall profits while being relatively consistent year in year out. All three had 6 winning years and 2 losing years. Dettori’s figures are particularly eye-catching as he had very few big, priced winners which, as we know, can skew the stats.
Here are Dettori’s results broken down by year:
Overall backing Dettori ‘blind’ from 2014 to 2021 would have yielded a profit of £198.88 which is edging towards a return of 10p in the £. I am also going to share Crowley’s yearly breakdown despite a smattering of big, priced winners in his record. His big winners have been nicely spread over the years, so his figures appear very consistent:
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David Renham
Featured Image: (CC BY-ND 4.0) – Jockey & Horse
