Sire Watch: Where the Flat Turf Profits Are Born
Much as I love producing statistics (can you tell?), even I need to think outside the box sometimes, looking for a chance to go against the tide, to add in something ignored by the vast majority of other punters – and let’s be realistic here, it is close to impossible to beat the bookmakers – we are looking to get our hands on some of the money lost by other bettors.
Hands up who has heard of Galileo, Frankel and Dubawi, most of you at a guess, even those too young to have seen them race in person? The reason behind that is their lasting legacy both in the record books – and via their post-racing career at stud, producing winner after winner over the years, and seeing their offspring sold for telephone number figures – but they are not the only ones.
This month I am having a look at the top sires (no point in looking at dams as they can only produce one offspring per year so the sample will be unnecessarily small) for the Turf Flat season – not just the most well-known (who I suspect are over bet), but those producing the most profit with their children.
I had considered sales prices as a potential marker but with so many top class homebred horses, (think Godolphin, Coolmore, Kirsten Rausing and so on) that would have overlooked far too may winners (and losers) – so breeding it is – and although I always write my preamble BEFORE I dig into the facts, I am more than confident we will find ourselves a few very profitable surprises!
Note – turf only, Flat only UK and Ireland – all-weather tracks are NOT included.
Data interrogated – the last 20 years (2005 to 2024 inclusive) have been used (you would be surprised how long they can stand at stud after retiring from the track, Turgeon was still active at the age of 33!), and a minimum number of qualifiers of 200 to make sure that:
a) One or two large priced results do not skew the figures and
b) In the hope that gives us plenty of runners to work with this season.
All returns to a fictitious £1 stake, 2% commission assumed on Betfair Starting Price (BSP).
Starting With The Basics
All Flat Races on Turf – Top 5 Only
| Sires | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Dubawi | 6653 | 1248 | 18.76% | +£1114.08 | -£211.37 | 4 | 45 |
| Sixties Icon | 2578 | 306 | 11.87% | +£995.85 | -£279.77 | 3 | 58 |
| Pivotal | 8262 | 1093 | 13.23% | +£968.07 | -£934.27 | 4 | 62 |
| Polish Precedent | 744 | 54 | 7.26% | +£915.55 | -£136.81 | 2 | 52 |
| Zafeen | 627 | 53 | 8.45% | +£913.34 | -£36.11 | 2 | 55 |
| TOTALS | 18864 | 2754 | 14.60% | +£4906.89 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: Fantastic returns over the years to £1 level stakes, but not the best ever Return On Investment of just 26% over 20 years, though clear evidence once more that we need to be betting at Betfair SP (no I do not have shares) and not with the range of other household bookmakers.
Now we get to see if the same sires take centre stage in non-handicaps only…
Non-Handicap Races on Turf – Top 5
| Sires | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Efisio | 362 | 50 | 13.81% | +£894.95 | +£63.75 | 4 | 30 |
| Polish Precedent | 258 | 18 | 6.98% | +£839.03 | -£53.90 | 2 | 77 |
| Mount Nelson | 580 | 56 | 9.66% | +£823.39 | -£13.05 | 2 | 50 |
| Trans Island | 484 | 45 | 9.30% | +£777.37 | -£19.26 | 2 | 34 |
| Bated Breath | 1226 | 144 | 11.75% | +£752.09 | -£114.66 | 4 | 39 |
| TOTALS | 2910 | 313 | 10.76% | +£4086.83 | -£137.12 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: A (largely) different set of top sires which I confess surprised me, but almost as much profit to £1 stakes – from considerably less bets – I like it!
Add in a Return On Investment of 140.44% and we are cooking with gas and with less than 150 bets a year (on average) this looks potentially easier to handle as well.
Next stop – handicaps…
Handicap Races on Turf – Top 5
| Sires | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/Loss to Industry SP | Longest Winning Run (LWR) | Longest Losing Run (LLR) |
| Inchinor | 1040 | 103 | 9.90% | +£890.60 | +£56.23 | 3 | 34 |
| Pivotal | 5254 | 645 | 12.28% | +£692.72 | -£441.62 | 4 | 60 |
| Galileo Gold | 448 | 58 | 12.95% | +£623.96 | +£274.79 | 4 | 47 |
| Outstrip | 696 | 54 | 7.76% | +£586.77 | +£1.45 | 2 | 50 |
| Dutch Art | 3009 | 379 | 12.60% | +£517.49 | -£118.82 | 3 | 39 |
| TOTALS | 10447 | 1239 | 11.86% | +£3311.54 | -£227.97 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: The best strike rates so far on our lists but a poor Return On Investment of 31.70% – over 20 years!
Plenty of food for thought though and we move forwards… Finally, I have just about enough space to look at the top sire in all three categories – and how they do by most profitable distance only, then by going, and finally by age
Top Sire From Each List Recording Their Most Profitable Distance Only
| Sire | Distance (in furlongs) | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/ Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/ Loss to Industry SP | LWR | LLR |
| Dubawi | 8 | 1557 | 285 | 18.30% | +£394.37 | +£29.53 | 3 | 23 |
| Efisio | 6 | 346 | 45 | 13.01% | +£595.28 | +£127.55 | 4 | 37 |
| Inchinor | 8 | 308 | 34 | 11.04% | +£703.87 | +£103.29 | 2 | 42 |
| TOTALS | 2211 | 364 | 16.46% | +£1693.52 | +£260.37 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: self-explanatory, follow the top sires over the right distances and we see a decent return from a lot less bets.
Top Sire From Each List Recording Their Most Profitable Official Going Only
| Sire | Official Going | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/ Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/ Loss to Industry SP | LWR | LLR |
| Dubawi | Good to Firm | 2076 | 424 | 20.42% | +£681.35 | +£139.55 | 4 | 36 |
| Efisio | Firm | 24 | 3 | 12.50% | +£203.04 | +£24.50 | 1 | 11 |
| Inchinor | Soft | 159 | 17 | 10.69% | +£731.97 | +£142.68 | 3 | 31 |
| TOTALS | 2259 | 444 | 19.65% | +£1616.36 | +£306.73 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: I take the numbers for Efisio with a pinch of salt with his offspring seemingly effective on most going but the other two sires clearly pass on a going preference worth taking seriously.
And lastly.
Top Sire From Each List Recording Their Most Profitable Angle By Age.
| Sire | Age | Runners | Winners | Strike Rate | Profit/ Loss to Betfair SP | Profit/ Loss to Industry SP | LWR | LLR |
| Dubawi | 3 | 2877 | 616 | 21.41% | +£955.11 | +£308.41 | 5 | 28 |
| Efisio | 3 | 347 | 44 | 12.68% | +£800.37 | +£185.87 | 3 | 30 |
| Inchinor | 3 | 424 | 40 | 9.43% | +£762.36 | +£80.56 | 2 | 36 |
| TOTALS | 3648 | 700 | 19.19% | +£2517.84 | +£574.84 | N/A | N/A |
Summary: Good returns with decent strike rates and clearly, three year olds are the way to go!
Conclusion: If you are a patient punter willing to put a little bit of effort in there is clearly money to be made by looking at the pedigree of the horses concerned.
You can use any or all tables as you see fit (some will give more bets than others, obviously) and to be fair, we could have dug deeper (I feel a new book coming on!).
It isn’t difficult to find the breeding of any horse on any of the main racing websites, and with relatively short lists of top sires above, it won’t take long to find yourself plenty of winners that you may otherwise have missed.
Sean Trivass is well-known freelance journalist who specialises in horse racing. His books can be found on Amazon here https://tinyurl.com/59t4dr7e while his weekly blog is updated Friday evening on his website at www.writesports.net.
Any ideas for future articles – contact Sean via his website and he will investigate further!