More Positive National Hunt Trainer Stats
Last month I compared trainers’ stats across a selection of course data from two different time frames to see how consistent it was. The results were mixed, but it has made me want to look at more trainer stats to see what I could glean.
My focus for this piece has been National Hunt racing in the UK going back to the 1st January 2015. I collated the stats on Boxing Day last year (2021), so we have a decent data set.
All profits/losses have been calculated to Betfair Starting Price (BSP).
National Hunt Debut (No previous runs on the Flat)
Firstly, I am taking a look at trainers that have the highest strike rates when running a horse for the first time. The rules are that it must be a National Hunt race, and also this is not including ex flat horses switching to a different sphere.
Below are the top performing trainers in terms of strike rate (minimum runs 50) :
7 of the top 10 made a blind profit and before drilling down into the data I looked back to 2009 to 2014 to see how those 7 profitable trainers fared in that earlier period.
In fact, 6 of the 7 made a profit during that time frame as well, with Lacey the only one who did not. Indeed, Lacey only had 4 runners in total between ’09 and ’14 so not the biggest sample to be fair.
Going back to 2015 onwards, Nicky Henderson has an extremely good overall record, although he made a profit in only 4 of the 7 years, and 2021 was actually quite a poor year by his high standards. However, Henderson of all trainers can probably be forgiven for one poor year.
Some additional stats for Henderson worth sharing are:
1. Horses making their debut at either Kempton or Newbury have performed particularly well. Kempton debutants have won 12 of their 27 starts (SR 44.4%) for a profit of £11.21 (ROI + 41.5%); Newbury debutants have won 16 of their 43 starts (SR 37.2%) for a profit of £31.39 (ROI + 73.0%);
2. Horses aged 3 making their debut have been rare but of the 19 runners 11 have won (SR 57.9%) for a profit of £9.57 (ROI + 50.3%);
3. Focusing on higher class races would have proved fruitful. In class 1, 2 or 3 races, Henderson has produced 25 winners from 66 runners (SR 37.9%) for a huge profit of £132.94 (ROI + 201.4%).
Alan King’s record also caught my eye.
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David Renham
Featured Image: Paul Nicholls
