Winter Warmers – A look at Handicap Chases
With the exception of a short break at the end of April, following the season finale at Sandown, there is jumps racing pretty much all year round…weather permitting!
For the purists though the “proper season” gets going with the opening salvo at Cheltenham, with the two day Showcase meeting, which this year went ahead across Friday 25th and Saturday 26th October, despite the soggy underfoot conditions.
One of the greatest spectacles in the National Hunt calendar is of course the Grand National, but in the same sphere there is plenty of cracking handicap chases which take place throughout the months.
Year in year out there are a bunch of trainers that are adept at targeting these types of races, and our objective this month is to put together a portfolio of those which will hopefully help deliver a profit for the coming winter campaign.
Whether it is a changing climate or just the natural progression of things, the weather during 2019 has had a marked bearing on many race meetings, and even the rescheduled Horris Hill Stakes (Newbury had to abandon) at Newmarket at the start of November was run on atrocious ground.
This type of weather will have affected both the on course action and the ability of the trainers to get solid work into their horses on the gallops.
For this reason we have deliberately moved our timelines back by one month and will focus our research covering the period running from December through to the end of April.
In addition, and to keep things fresh and relative, we will focus on the most recent 5 year period which is January 2014 to April 2019.
We will include those trainers who have had at least 50+ runners in such races, and have achieved a reasonable strike rate, both in win and place, and of course produced a decent level stake profit.
Let’s get cracking then by turning to the excellent database research facility which can be found at www.horseracebase.com.
The trainers we are going to take a closer look at (Stuart Coltherd, Iain Jardine, Charlie Mann, Nicky Richards, Michael Scudamore, Matt Sheppard and Jamie Snowden) have a proven track record with their handicap chasers, and the collective top line performance of this group is as follows:-
Consistently this group of trainers over the past 5 years have combined well to produce a profit (albeit 2016 was a small show).
The benefit of putting together a portfolio of trainers is that, in general, we can generate a more balanced return throughout the period of ups and downs some systems can produce.
As long as our overall performance is a positive then we can be happy.
By concentrating our efforts, and bets, across a fairly select group of proven performers we can benefit when some of the yards hit a rich vein of form, and compensate for a few of the others that are experiencing a dip in performance.
Collective profits are always the key objective!
Right let’s work our way through the individual yards that form an integral part of the Winter Warmer trainers.
W. S. (Stuart) Coltherd
Stuart Coltherd gained his full trainer's licence in 2004 and is based at Clarilawmuir Farm, on the outskirts of Selkirk in the Scottish Borders.
The dual purpose yard has facilities for 26 race horses and since April 2014 has achieved over 50 winners and just shy of 100 further placers.
As can be seen in the above table the Handicap Chasers have been a key contributor to the yards success, and not withstanding a couple of blips the results offer scope for encouragement going forward.
Given the number of runners that run well and place you may also wish to consider splitting your stakes across the Win and Place markets on the exchanges or Each-Way with the traditional bookmakers.
Iain Jardine
As a youngster Iain got involved with Pony Racing and riding in Flapping Races before concentrating on becoming a jockey. His career began with Mick Naughton in Yorkshire before moving on as a Conditional Jockey to Scottish Champion Trainer Len Lungo.
The groundwork of experience with Len has influenced his own training techniques today, but before starting out on his own he went on to work for Yorkshire Trainer, Ferdy Murphy then returned to Scotland for a spell with Peter Monteith.
Jardine’s yard is based at Hetlandhill, Carrutherstown, Dumfries and Galloway and is dual purpose with both flat and national hunt runners.
So how have his Handicap Chasers performed during the research period?
With reference to the above table one element that stands out in no uncertain terms is the improvement curve of the yards runners in Handicap Chases over the recent years.
Hopefully this will continue “under the radar” over the coming winter period to help us profit from this emerging trainer.
Charlie Mann
Charlie Mann was a very successful National Hunt Jockey for 15 years before he had an unfortunate accident which resulted in him breaking his neck in a fall in 1989.
1993 saw him embark on his career as a racehorse trainer, and in 1995 he returned to the saddle and rode and trained the winner of the Grand Pardubice (the Czech Grand National) on It’s A Snip.
The yard has a few runners on the flat, but they are very much National Hunt focussed, and as the table below shows, overall they have a decent strike rate with their Handicap Chasers.
Nicky Richards
Nicky is from good horse racing stock as his father Gordon W Richards announced his arrival in the training ranks with Playlord, who was third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup in 1969, and Titus Oates, who won the King George VI Chase in the same year.
For 30 years “The Boss”, as his father was better known, turned Greystoke into one of the premier yards in the country at a time when the north enjoyed a golden age of success, with Michael Dickinson, Peter Easterby, Jimmy Fitzgerald and Arthur Stephenson dominating the jump racing scene.
Horses such as One Man and The Grey Monk became household names and among the 2000-plus winners he trained were Grand National heroes Lucius (1978) and Hallo Dandy (1984).
Not long after One Man’s win in the 1997 Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham “The Boss” passed away and the reins were handed over to Nicky who has continued his father’s success with a host of top class winners.
The yard continue to fire in the winners across all of the National Hunt codes, but the area in which they shine from a profits perspective is with the chasers, so let’s take a closer look at those that have been competing in the handicaps of late:-
The yard had a dip in performance during 2018 but have since bounced back and some!
There are a number of promising young horses that are progressing through from bumpers and hurdles which can hopefully make their mark over the bigger obstacles during the coming winter period.
Michael Scudamore
As a youngster Michael was a keen pony club rider, enjoyed show jumping and one day events, and in subsequent years, worked for numerous trainers, including Nigel Twiston-Davies, Dennis Caro, James Fanshawe and Martin Pipe.
Michael took over the trainers licence from his grandfather in April 2008 and is based at Eccleswall Court, Bromsash, Ross-On-Wye.
The recent results of his Handicap Chasers are as follows:-
Based on the above he looks a useful asset to the Winter Warmer team and we can hopefully look forward to him contributing to the coffers over the coming months.
Returns may be more forthcoming if we look at his runners from an each way perspective as can be seen above.
Matt Sheppard
Matt Sheppard is based at Eastnor in Herefordshire, and one of the yards most recent winners, The Bay Birch, has improved a remarkable 50lb’s in her Official Rating since joining the stable at the end of January 2018.
As can be seen from the table below, the trainers’ record in the type of race under our spotlight has broadly been consistent, and most importantly profitable, to both the Industry and Betfair SP.
And again, an each way approach looks to offer possible steady returns over the December to April period.
Jamie Snowden
Jamie showed a passion for racing from an early age, through Pony Club, hunting, and then riding in Point-to-Points. Whilst at school, he rode out for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and during his gap year he worked as an Assistant Trainer for a flat yard in New Zealand.
He had a brief career in the army during which time he became one of the go to jockeys for the annual military races each spring at Sandown.
He managed to win both the Grand Military Gold Cup and the Royal Artillery Gold Cup four times, and even carried the Queen’s colours to victory on First Love in a race at Sandown in 2006.
After a season as pupil assistant for champion trainer Paul Nicholls, he then worked for three seasons as assistant trainer and amateur jockey for Nicky Henderson before branching out on his own in 2008.
He is now consistently training over 30 winners a season and one areas of consistency has been with his Handicap Chasers as can be seen in the following table:-
In Summary:
System 55: Back Handicap Chasers running during the months of December through to April for the following trainers on a Win/Place basis with Betfair or Each Way terms with the bookie.
W S Coltherd
M J Scudamore
M Sheppard
System 63: Back Handicap Chasers running during the months of December through to April for the following trainers on a Win Only basis.
Ian Jardine
Charlie Mann
Nicky Richards
Jamie Snowden
So there we have it, a mix of small and hopefully upwardly mobile trainers, where the yards are showing a pedigree and experience which hopefully will help us enjoy some profits during the winter months.
These systems should make a tidy profit through to the end of the National Hunt season next April but they are broad based and of course our selected trainers like all trainers have their specialities so for Gold members this month we have dug a little deeper and uncovered some higher ROI's
If you’re not already a Gold member you can get OCP Gold here https://www.oncourseprofits.com/upgradetogold
