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Festive Acorns: Trainers to follow in December

“Christmas is coming; the turkey’s getting fat, please put a penny in the poor punters hat”

It’s December. Just where has the year gone?  The Christmas lights and decorations are going up. Festive markets are in full swing and of course Christmas is just a few weeks away.

The Christmas period is busy one for horse racing. There’s Kempton’s Winter Festival with the highlight being the Grade 1 King George VI Chase on Boxing Day.  A day later weather permitting, it’s the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. Over the Irish Sea it’s Leopardstown Christmas Festival which provides Irish racegoers with four days of high-class racing action.

It all makes for some interesting few weeks which are all dependent on the weather. Whatever the weather does there is plenty to look forward to as we digest all those mince pies.

With Christmas coming fast let’s try and get some spending money by highlighting those trainers who can be relied upon to bring home the bacon over the festive period.  This month we have five National Hunt trainers whose runners will be worth following in December.

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As ever the excellent www.horseracebase.com with its mine of detailed information and stats is the starting point for this month’s investigation.

Before analysing further. To keep the data as relevant as possible, my starting point is all National Hunt racing for the last four years only. 

The only specific filters I have used at this point are that the runner’s SP is 20/1 or shorter and the trainers had a minimum of 25 runners in the period under research.

December Trainers – National Hunt

Let’s begin by looking at the top National Hunt trainers in December ordered by win percentage.

Trainer performance in December for all turf flat races from 2015 onwards, runners SP 20/1 & under.

Nicky Richards – The first trainer to catch the eye is Cumbria based trainer Nicky Richards.

A 30%-win strike rate, with a healthy profit and a solid A/E figures.

Here is his record by year.

You probably could back his December runners blind and make a profit again this year and it’s a month he has his runners very much in winning form.

Are there any profitable angles that can be exploited?

Let’s dig further and break down his runners by non-handicap and handicap races:

His non-handicap runners take the eye, but his handicap runners also provide a profit.

Now let’s filter by National Hunt race type:

Most of the profit has come from his chasers during the month but his hurdlers are profitable and although he doesn’t have many bumper runners in the month they usually run well.

I would be happy to follow all his runners during the month but for those looking for something more niche.  You could do worse than look at these qualifiers.

System 70: Back Nicky Richards December National Hunt Runners 20/1 & under, with 1+ career run and 0 to 1 win at the track.

Rebecca Menzies – Our second trainer is another northern based trainer Rebecca Menzies.

Breaking those results down by non-handicap and handicap races.

Most of her runners have been in handicaps

Digging further by NH race type.

Not much between her chasers and hurdlers.

So, what further profitable angle can we find for her runners during December? The one that catches the eye most are runners with a run within the previous 30-days.

Her runners returning from a 31+day absence are 2 winners from 19 runners 11% +10 A/E 0.94 4 placed 21%.

Looking at those results by year…

Three profitable years out of four is acceptable but we can do without a year like 2017 although she did have seven placed efforts that season which is more reassuring.

System 71: Back Rebecca Menzies December runners 20/1 & under, that had run within 30-days of their last start.

Tom Lacey – Our third trainer is Herefordshire based trainer Tom Lacey.

A near 28%-win strike rate and runners performing 31% better than market expectations gives us a solid base to work with.

Breaking those results down by non-handicap and handicap races produces the following set of results.

The trainers’ handicap runners are more profitable than his non-handicap runners

Digging further by race type.

I think we can leave his bumper runners out.

Concentrating on his chasers and hurdlers and those sent off 13/2 & under has produced the following set of results:

The trainers well fancied runners have won 40% of their races which is an excellent win strike rate.

Breaking those runs by year.

Last December produced a small loss and wasn’t good winner wise but 12 of his 16 runners during the month placed which is excellent and gives us plenty of hope he can do well this year.

System 72: Back Tom Lacey’s December runners, in chase & hurdle races, sent off 13/2 & under.

Anthony Honeyball – Trainer number four is Dorset based Anthony Honeyball. 

A near 28%-win strike for his runners in the month and good level stakes profit gives us plenty to work with.

Breaking that down further by non-handicap and handicaps.

The trainers’ non-handicap runners have a better strike rate, but most of the month’s profit has come from his handicappers.

Now by NH race type.

Looking at those results his bumper runners during the month can never be left out of calculations.

Honeyball clearly targets his runners at certain tracks:

A 43%-win strike rate and a very healthy profit following the trainers’ runners over the last four seasons, performing 83% better than market expectations.

Breaking those results by year:

Three profitable years out of four is more than acceptable.

Last year the month didn’t see many runners coming out from the stable with just five runners overall.

The stable was under a cloud 12 months ago so I’m expecting much better this time around. There won’t be many qualifiers so there won’t be too much damage to the betting bank.

System 01: Back Anthony Honeyball’s December Runners, sent off 20/1 & under, running at Ascot, Cheltenham, Exeter, Huntingdon, Kempton, Leicester, Lingfield, Newbury, Plumpton & Wincanton.

Henry Whittington

Our fifth trainer of the month is Henry Whittington who has produced the following set of results in December.

Breaking those results down by non-handicap and handicap races.

A quick glance at those figures suggests his handicappers have been worth following.

Now filtering by NH race type.

The trainer’s runners in hurdle races and bumpers have provided the bulk of the winners but most of the profit has come from his chasers.

By adding the following two simple filters:

  • Odds SP: 11/4 & under.
  • Last Time Out Placing: No Run, 1st 2nd or 3rd
  • Has produced the following results:

Breaking those results by year:

Four successive years of profit and not may qualifiers mean there won’t be too much harm to the betting bank.

An excellent 75% above market expectations for the trainer’s runners near the head of the market that finished in the first three on their last run or were making their recourse debut.

System 05: Back Henry Whittington’s December runners that finished first three on their last start and that are sent off 11/4 & under.

Sue Gardner – The last of this month’s trainers is Sue Gardner.  It’s a stable that likes to land a touch or two so it’s probably worth getting on this trainer’s runners at early prices.

Breaking her runners down by non-handicap and handicap races.

Looking at those stats concentrating on the trainer’s handicappers is the way to go.

Adding two simple filters:

  • Runs in Last 90-days.
  • Tracks: Exeter, Fontwell, Hereford, Leicester, Taunton & Wincanton

Gives the following results:

That’s healthy level stakes profit to SP which will improve for taking bookies early prices. Again not may qualifiers so harm done to the betting bank but the chance of some big profits.

System 06: Back Sue Gardner December handicap runners, sent off 20/1 & under at Exeter, Fontwell, Hereford, Leicester, Taunton & Wincanton that had 1+ runs in the previous 90-days.

Like many of these methods. The above figures are based on historic data and whilst history has a good habit of repeating itself, it often doesn’t.

It is important to remember that these bets are purely for the month of December and as such there maybe too many or indeed to few qualifiers for you, depending on your betting strategies.

Until next month.

John

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