Research Corner – Something a little different from the All Weather
Hi All
At the time of writing, it is challenging to imagine that the 2024 Flat Turf season is building to the first Classic of the year in early May. To date we have had the Doncaster Lincoln meeting run on soft, heavy in places, followed by abandoned fixtures due to the poor weather. When they have managed to go ahead the underfoot conditions are soggy to say the least.
Thank goodness for the All-Weather racing as it has at least kept the show on the road so to speak.
Hopefully by the time this magazine has been published we will be in a spell of better weather and the hoofs on the turf courses will be rattling!
Quite rightly the key focus for the May through to early November will be on the Flat turf campaign but alongside the many high-profile Festivals the All-Weather will continue to add to and support the fixture list.
In this piece we will be taking a closer look at the six All-Weather tracks and in particular seeking out the higher profile trainers that target the meetings that will be taking place over the next 5 or so months.
We will focus our efforts on the most recent 5 year period, 2019-2023.
First up is Chelmsford.
The top trainers who achieved a 20% strike rate with at least 50 runners over the review period were: -
Top of the pile is John, now John and Thady Gosden.
The Gosden’s
A 37.62% strike rate at the track during the period May-October is no mean feat even for the Gosden’s particularly if we put this in the context of their normal performance which generally is around 21% across all codes.
The caveat is that the above clearly shows that the yard’s numbers at the track have been on a steady decline. Whilst that doesn’t necessarily put a complete damper on the potential angle, it may well be that we don’t get much action from this approach going forward.
One other factor did stand out though and that is when a particular jockey team’s up with the yard over the review period.
Robert Halvin has been aboard on 45 occasions and 16 of those resulted in winners and no less than 62% placed.
System JO-114-01-05-24-RC: Back the runners trained by John and Thady Gosden at Chelmsford during the period May-October, when ridden by Robert Halvin.
Moving on let us next consider Kempton.
2. Kempton
The top trainers who achieved a 20% strike rate with at least 50 runners over the review period were: -
The only yard with a decent return coupled with a solid A/E is Saeed Bin Suroor.
However, it was recently announced that a redundancy process had been started at the longest serving trainer for the Godolphin operation off the back of the poorest return this century last season when only 18 winners were landed.
With that in mind it doesn’t seem an angle we should pursue until there are clearer plans in place.
Next up is Lingfield.
3. Lingfield
If we follow the same process as earlier, we find that the top trainers who achieved a 20% strike rate with at least 50 runners over the review period at this track were: -
There are a couple of yards that catch the eye from the above, namely Roger Varian and Archie Watson.
Roger Varian
It can be seen from the above that the majority of the profit came during a very fruitful 2022 campaign, and things dipped somewhat last year despite having the same number of winners.
However, after a little more digging we may have found a small action angle to add to the portfolio.
System JO-114-02-05-24-RC: Back the runners trained by Roger Varian at Lingfield during the period May-October, when ridden by Jack Mitchell.
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