July Systems
Your July Micro Systems
It’s time for some more Micro systems, this time for the month of July. As I type May has just finished and it was a mixed bag for the micro systems in May. There were a couple of very disappointing ones, notably Dods and Haggis who managed just two small priced winners between them in 40 bets whilst Harrington also went winless although with only 9 bets.
Given the best part of 50 points of losses there it highlights even more the value of a portfolio of these systems because over all we ended up 9 points down on the win side of things whilst managing to just edge a marginal profit on places.
There were two systems that will definitely carry over to next year though. Gosden and O’Brien. O’Brien’s stand out figure was 9 places from 11 runners for a tidy 9.56pts of profit whilst securing just over a couple of points profit on the win side as well. Gosden had a big winner which led to a very nice 47.18pts of profit on win backed up with almost 11 points on places. Aside from those two I will also carry over Burke who had a small place loss but 4.20 points gain on wins from just 10 bets for the month. I think I’ll also persevere with Murtagh as well who had 28 runners and ended with a couple of points loss on both win and place. His A/E figures suggested 4.16 wins and 11.18 places and he came in with 4 wins and 10 places. Goldie likewise, a small loss of around a point on both and gathered in 2 wins and 4 places from just 8 bets with an A/E respectively of 1.91 and 4.07.
This month I’m putting a slight spin on things. It’s based on something similar I’ve done in the past and it worked quite well so I want to give it a try with our micros systems for July.
What I’m going to do is get our list of trainers as usual. Below are all the trainers who have had at least 20 wins over the last three July’s (2022,2023 and 2024) on the Flat.
Now with those trainers in the Horseracebase system builder I’m going to get a list of all jockeys who show a profit over all when riding for any of those trainers. This will be our Jockey list.
Now we’ll go through our trainers and see what micro systems we can find using only jockeys from our list. Now of course that won’t mean if a jockey has ridden for a particular trainer he has to be in our system, if he’s 0 wins in 9 rides for example then he won’t be included. It will only be those who have good records. I will also check other filters as normal, particularly if we have a lot of bets in our totals.
Alphabetical order then and first up is Charlie Appleby.
As would be expected Buick has a great record with Appleby but we also have some other nice results with rides picked up by other jockeys. Here as you can see Billy Loughnane is showing 0 for 1 but I’m going to include him because a) it's just one ride and b) he is looking very much one of the best up and coming jockeys. There are no other filters that offer any improvement so we will leave it as it is.
This looks like an ideal micro system. It should average out at around a bet per day. Each year shows a nice profit and an excellent strike rate.
Nothing for Michael Appleby.
Next up is Andrew Balding.
Jockeys from our list for him.
A very good looking table there!
A headgear filter would appear to be in order here. Just one win in fifteen rides for his horses when they are wearing either a visor or a hood. A marked strike rate difference from anything else.
All of which leave us with a very healthy looking table. Quite a few bets and perhaps not strictly a micro system but with a 25% strike rate and less than two a day in two of the three years and no glaring filters worth adding I think I’m happy to stick there with it.
Horseracebase settings
Next is Ralph Beckett
A look at class moves here and apart from these 6 runs where the horse has dropped 3 classes then results are clearly the best when his horses stay in the same class in their next run.
A look at our jockeys now and barring Hector Crouch who has a small minus all look pretty good. I’m inclined to leave them all in the mix, even Crouch, who still has a decent strike rate with just small priced winners.
All of which leaves us with a decent little micro system.
Here’s the horseracebase settings.
Nothing on Boughey, Burke, Carroll or Cox.
Onto Simon Crisford
Our first port of call is the number of runs in career.
Those who are still inexperienced at this time of year don’t appear to do well unless they are highly fancied (see the 2.33 average win odds on the only winners).
Our jockey list throws up only really Jack Mitchell as one to remove with nothing from four rides.
This gives us what should be around a 10 bet micro system for July.
Horseracebase settings
Nothing for Dods or either of the Easterby’s.
PD. Evans now.
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