Southwell Horse Racing Tips for Today
The Racing Post, Attheraces and Timeform are providing serious misinformation to their readers and subscribers in regards to racing at Southwell on the new All-Weather surface. Incorrectly, they are combining the form of the old Fibresand surface with that of the new Tapeta surface. The two surfaces could not be more different! The Fibresand was extremely tough to race on and considered the equivalent of heavy going on the Turf, whilst the Tapeta surface is closest to good ground, though currently on the slow side of good!
There have now been 18 meetings and 140 races on this new course since Tuesday 7 December 2021. There have been 47 winning favourites (6 joint-favourites) for 34% so just above the national average, 20 winners priced 10/1 or bigger for 14%, but incredibly 42 second-favourites for 30% meaning the top two in the market are winning 89-140 for a massive 64%. Our figures show the first two in the market generally win between 51% and 52% so a huge 13% increase and an opportunity to profit if one is able to bet just before the race!
We cannot know if these figures hold up or remain close to this high, but given the configuration of the course and its fairness, on a surface that suits most horses, we believe it will and already profiting from this assumption! Worth pointing out the favoured horses are winning at a high strike rate even though 113 of the 140 races have been handicaps, most of them particularly low grade. Only 20 horses priced 10/1 or more have won so far. The suggestion is once we have more non-handicap races, with better horses involved from the top stables the figures will firm and hold up. The current 64% does look artificially high but even if they win at 58% to 60% it suggests an angle.
The Racing Horse offers their Southwell Racecourse Template for Friday 11 February 2022.
There is an 8-race card including 4 handicaps, 2 classified stakes and 2 maiden races.
The going is expected to be standard to slow.
Winning favourites Non-handicap Handicap 2yo: 0-2 for 0% (-2.00) 1-6 for 16% (-2.50) 3yo: 7-15 for 47% (+1.50) 6-25 for 24% (-6.45) 4yo+: 5-10 for 50% (+1.29) 28-82 for 34% (-2.87) Total: 12-27 for 44% (+0.79) 35-113 for 31% (-11.82) WINNING FAVOURITES: 47-140 for 34% (-4.42) SECOND FAVOURITES: 42-140 for 30% TOP 2 in the MARKET: 89-140 for 64% ← 10/1 and BIGGER: 20-140 for 14% Course & Surface winners +/- E R Bowring (12%) 8-21 for 38% (+26.87) +26% 3 D Shaw (7%) 5-35 for 14% (-10.80) +7% 3 S Dixon (7%) 5-73 for 7% (-15.50) +0% 4 D Thompson (6%) 4-14 for 29% (+43.00) +23% 1 C Wallis (8%) 3-12 for 25% (+9.50) +17% 3 K Burke (12%) 3-16 for 19% (-1.25) +7% 1 Hot trainers 12/01/22 to 11/02/22 +/- E S Bowring (12%) 7-12 for 58% (+30.88) +46% 3 R Varian (20%) 6-18 for 33% (+7.75) +13% 1 G Tuer (14%) 4-15 for 27% (+6.83) +13% 1 P McEntee (10%) 5-22 for 23% (+10.25) +13% 2 D Shaw (7%) 7-31 for 23% (-2.00) +16% 3 B Ellison (9%) 7-36 for 19% (+2.50) +10% 1 Cold trainers SAW E G Kelleway (8%) 54 2 M Loughnane (8%) 51 2 R Fell (10%) 36 2 J Macey (10%) 26 1 Course & Surface winners Wins R C Beasley (11%) 9 1 L Morris (10%) 7 1 C Hardie (6%) 6 3 L Edmunds (9%) 6 2 D Muscutt (11%) 5 2 J Mitchell (16%) 4 2 Hot jockeys 12/01/22 to 11/02/22 +/- R R Coakley (13%) 7-23 for 30% (+9.31) +17% 1 J Mitchell (16%) 13-46 for 28% (+28.03) +12% 1 C Murtagh (7%) 4-16 for 25% (+8.13) +18% 1 C Lee (12%) 6-26 for 23% (+12.17) +11% 2 D Muscutt (11%) 11-52 for 21% (+4.80) +10% 2 C Howarth (11%) 7-38 for 18% (+2.70) +7% 2 Cold jockeys SAW R C Hutchinson (8%) 57 2 A Mullen (7%) 39 5 T Marquand (14%) 25 5 C Fallon (13%) 19 1 Fixtures Friday 11 February 2022 Sunday 13 February 2022 Friday 18 February 2022 Tuesday 22 February 2022 Thursday 24 February 2022
TOP OF THE MARKET: Favourites are currently winning at 34% and just below what was anticipated. The first two in the market are showing 89-140 for 64%, we had anticipated a figure bigger than 51% so it will be interesting to see if this figure holds up – we think it might!
TRAINERS: William Knight scores 4-4 for 100% (+20.70) at Southwell on the new surface but has no runners tomorrow. Charlie Hills is currently 7-10 for 70% (+15.27) but has no runners either. Roy Bowring heads the charts with 8-21 for a big 38% ( +26.87), he trains just 10 miles from the track and the nearest of all our trainers. He has 3 runners tomorrow, whilst Derek Shaw (3), Scott Dixon (4) and Chris Wallis (3) have chances to add to their tally.
Another who trains close by is Michael Appleby. He was the previous king of Southwell scoring 209 winners at around 15% which is 4% above his national average. He has not got to grips with the new surface yet showing 1-59 for 1.69%. If he was totally out of form one could partially excuse these returns, but he is good form, the last 14 days showing 5-33 for 15% and +4% above his NA. Obviously, this state of affairs will end and probably sooner rather than later, he has 2 runners of interest tomorrow.
Tony Carroll (2 runners) is 0-42, his figures on the old course showed 52-517 for 10%. Ivan Furtado (0) is currently 2-33 for 6% (-25.00), but on the old course showed 36-268 for 13% (-14.62). One imagines those current figures finding a higher level?
JOCKEYS: Two of our better jockeys Jack Mitchell and Cieren Fallon come for one ride so worth a look, but Andrew Mullen and Tom Marquand have 5 rides each and both find themselves on the cold list. Must be winners amongst this grouping!
PERTINENCE
12.30
IESHA (C Wallis) C&D winner, trainer 25% at C&S, top jockey at C&S rides
TOPTIME (R Bowering) weighted to win 63 > 60, P J McDonald rides
COOL SPIRIT (D C Griffiths) winner in the last 7 days, Andrew Mullen rides
1.00
LOUISE TREIZE (R Menzies) beaten favourite last time out
PAPAS GIRL (J S Moore) beaten favourite last time out, hot jockey Christian Howarth rides
1.35
GOVERNMENT (H Palmer) beaten favourite last time out, first time visor, Cieren Fallon's only ride
ILLUMINATED (R Varian) trainer 21% in winter, 33% for past month, Jack Mitchell's only ride
DE VEGA'S WARRIOR (M Appleby) lightly raced, formerly with J P O'Brien
2.10
PRINCE ABU (D Shaw) turned out under a penalty, trainer 23% past month, Cam Hardie good C&S record and 35% on favourites
FIRST CHARGE (M Loughnane) beaten favourite last time out, Tom Marquand rides
2.45
AQUAMAS (M Dods) beaten favourite last time out, first time blinkers, trainer shows profit of £77.15 when one runner at Flat meeting, top C&S jockey Connor Beasley rides
BOBBY ON THE BEAT (P McEntee) beaten favourite last time out, David Probert rides
CASARUAN (M Appleby) trainer shows profit of £107.26 using first time headgear
BAVARDAGES (M & D Easterby) weighted to win 75 > 64, Paul Mulrennan rides
3.20
LOVE YOUR WORK (R Menzies) C&D winner, beaten favourite last time out
VIVA VOCE (T D Barron) winner in the last 7 days, hot jockey Christian Howarth rides
3.55
SIR HENRY COTTON (A Balding) drops from class 2 to class 5, David Probert rides
CHASING LOVE (K P De Foy) trainer 23% in winter, hot jockey Danny Muscutt rides
TWILIGHT TONE (B Millman) travels 216 miles, hot jockey Ross Coakley rides
4.25
SLEIGHT (I Jardine) travels 218 miles, Andrew Mullen rides
MAYSON MOUNT (A Wintle) trainer shows profit of £28.28 when one runner at a Flat meeting
Paul Moon – The Racing Horse
