Fakenham – A 2023 Update
Back in January 2020 (Issue 62) John Burke kindly prepared a Fakenham Racecourse Profile for us and it seemed appropriate that this should now be updated.
Fakenham has pulled up no more than a handful of possible systems over the years, so we also felt that it may merit further investigation with regards to the possibility of one or two “micro systems.”
These systems won’t be added to our portfolio. In the main, individually, they generate no more than a handful of runners each year.
But for readers who visit Fakenham they will hopefully provide some selections to help you enjoy your day in the heart of Norfolk.
We will update the post on the public website with the results from time to time.
The General Stats
Favourites
Clear favourites have produced the following set of results:
189 winners from 528 runners 35.80% -98.19 A/E 0.83 313 placed 59.28 %.
Breaking those results down into handicap & non-handicap races gives us:
Non-handicap – 89 winners from 209 runners 42.58% -36.79 A/E 0.83 135 placed 64.59%.
Chase – 28 winners from 52 runners 53.85% -5.06 A/E 0.91 30 placed 57.69%
Hurdle – 55 winners from 132 runners 41.67% -18.96 A/E 0.84 91 placed 68.94%
NHF – 6 winners from 25 runners 24% -12.77 A/E 0.53 14 placed 56%
Handicaps – 100 winners from 319 runners 31.35% -61.40 A/E 0.83 178 placed 55.80%
Chase – 48 winners from 159 runners 30.19% -34.95 A/E 0.81 79 placed49.69%
Hurdles – 52 winners from 160 runners 32.50% -26.45 A/E 0.86 99 placed 61.88%
Digging a bit deeper let’s focus on favourites that won their last race and those
favourites who had finished outside the first three on their last start.
• Favourites that won their last race have produced – 52 winners from 143 runners 36.36% -34.11 A/E 0.79 85 placed 59.44%.
• Favourites that had finished outside the top four on their last start produced – 44 winners from 136 runners 32.35% -27.89 A/E 0.8 75 placed 55.15%.
Summary: Favourites are underperforming overall at the track.
Trainers and Favourites:
If you’re a favourite backer. Here are the best performing trainers when the money is down over the past 3 years (1st January 2020 – 26th December 2022)
Olly Murphy – 7 winners from 15 runners 46.67% -0.69 A/E 1.04 8 placed 53.33%.
Mrs Lucy Wadham – 5 winners from 12 runners 41.67% +1.92 A/E 1.15 7 placed 58.33%.
Alan King – 4 winners from 8 runners 50.00% +1.33 A/E 0.95 placed 4 50.00%
N Twiston-Davies – 3 winners from 7 runners 42.86% +0.25 A/E 1.09 placed 4 57.14%.
Summary: Not many qualifiers, and little profit for the effort, but the above four trainers’ favourites may be worth noting at Fakenham.
Jockeys and Favourites:
Which jockeys have done the business when the money is down for favourite backers?
Jack Quinlan – 5 winners from 7 runners 71.43% +5.75 A/E 1.82 5 placed 71.43%.
Tom Cannon – 5 winners from 8 runners 62.50% +3.63 A/E 1.29 5 placed 62.50%.
Summary: Quinlan and Cannon are the standout jockeys in recent years when riding the favourite.
General Course Stats:
• Odds SP: 18/1 & above – 13 winners from 796 runners 1.63% -445 A/E 0.58 66 placed 8.29%.
• Previous course winners provided 95 winners from 501 runners 18.96% -21.81 A/E 0.96 187 placed 37.33%.
Summary: Given the nature of Fakenham racecourse not surprisingly it is a track where previous course winner’s do well. Nearly one in five of the races at the track have been won by a previous course winner.
Trainer Stats and Micro Angles
Here are a few interesting recent trainer track stats for the last 3 years that will hopefully enable you to identify some winners at Fakenham for the fixtures this season.
Trainers & Handicap Hurdle Runners
Archie Watson – 3 wins from 3 runners 100.00% +25.50 A/E 6.52 3 placed 100.00%.
Sarah Humphrey – 4 wins from 13 runners 30.77% +25.50 A/E 2.56 5 placed 38.46%.
Samuel Drinkwater – 2 winners from 5 runners 40.00% +38.88 A/E 2.67 2 placed 40.00%.
Micro System 1: Back the runners from the above trainers in Handicap Hurdles at Fakenham.
Trainers & Handicap Chase Runners
Dr RDP Newland – 4 winners from 11 runners 36.36% +5.00 A/E 1.92 5 placed 45.45%.
Miss Suzy Smith – 2 winners from 4 runners 50.00% +3.75 A/E 3.23 2 placed 50.00%.
David Pipe – 2 winners from 5 runners 40.00% +2.75 A/E 1.89 4 placed 80.00%.
Micro System 2: Back the runners from the above trainers in Handicap Chases at Fakenham.
Trainers & Race Class – Handicaps
Class 3
Alan King – 5 winners from 10 runners 50.00% +16.26 A/E 2.59 6 placed 60.00%.
Sam Thomas – 2 winners from 3 runners 66.67% +4.75 A/E 2.47 2placed 66.67%.
Mrs Pam Sly – 2 winners from 5 runners 40.00% +4.33 A/E 2.30 2 placed 40.00%.
Micro System 3: Back the runners from the above trainers in Class 3 Handicaps at Fakenham.
Class 4
Sarah Humphrey – 4 wins from 12 runners 33.33% +26.50 A/E 2.60 5 placed 41.67%.
Archie Watson – 3 wins from 3 runners 100.00% +25.50 A/E 6.52 3 placed 100.00%.
Micro System 4: Back the runners from the above trainers in Class 4 Handicaps at Fakenham.
Class 5
Samuel Drinkwater – 2 winners from 3 runners 66.67% +40.88 A/E 4.35 2 placed 66.67%.
Tim Vaughan – 2 winners from 5 runners 40.00% +11.33 A/E 2.99 4 placed 80.00%.
Mark Gillard – 2 winners from 6 runners 33.33% +7.00 A/E 2.17 2 placed 33.33%.
Micro System 5: Back the runners from the above trainers in Class 5 Handicaps at Fakenham.
Trainers & NHF Races – Racecourse Debutants
Mrs Lucy Wadham – 2 winners from 3 runners 66.67% +5.75 A/E 2.25 2 placed 66.67%.
Warren Greatrex – 2 winners from 4 runners 50.00% +16.00 A/E 4.65 3 placed 75.00%.
Micro System 6: Back the runners from the above trainers in National Hunt Flat races at Fakenham.
Also keep an eye on the runners from Clive Gordon’s stable at Fakenham 6 winners from 9 runners in the last 3 years 66.67% +16.03 A/E 2.07 6 placed 66.67%.
Micro System 7: Back the runners from the Clive Gordon yard at Fakenham.