‘Tracking’ Last Time Out Winners
Like many aspects of the training game, it goes without saying that some trainers are better than others when it comes to successfully placing their Last Time Out Winners on their next start.
It’s hard to pinpoint the exact reason for this but I suspect it is down to what the individual trainer does with the horse at home between races (how much work they do or don’t with the winning horse... what sort of recovery program/period they give it...) mixed with finding the correct target for the horse’s next race, taking into consideration what the horse in question has just beaten, at what level, on what ground, what type of track... and many of the other variables that can be factored in when looking at form and horse preferences.
For this particular report I’m going to concentrate on the last of those variables I mentioned; the track, hence the title of this report ‘Tracking’ Last Time Out Winners.
Last Time Out Winner (LTOW) angles are something I concentrate on quite a bit on my own members service, and I have many LTOW angles plugged into the various databases that I use daily.
Plenty of those angles (although not exclusively) concentrate on certain trainers at certain tracks, pinpointing the tracks where those trainers have strong records at with their Last Time Out Winning horses.
The theory being that the trainer knows that going to a certain track with his Last Time Out Winner will give them a high chance of backing up the win with another visit to the winner’s enclosure (based on the knowledge they have accumulated with similar types in previous seasons at the track(s) in question).
I have an array of Last Time Out Winner Angles plugged in for every track in the UK and I’ll be sharing a handful of those angles here, concentrating on the following five tracks...
ASCOT – AYR – CHELTENHAM – FONTWELL – KEMPTON
...so, let’s get started...
*Stats are taken from January 2013 to September 2023
ASCOT
Two trainers appear at the top of my Ascot Last Time Out Winners portfolio... that two being...
PAUL NICHOLLS
Overall Ascot Last Time Out Winners Stats
25/85 | 29% S/R | +£0.64 BFLSP – W&P 43/85 | 51% S/R
9% above market expectation
A solid basis to start with from Paul Nicholls and his last time out winner horses at the Berkshire track. Limited on the profits front, however, so naturally we need to dig just a little bit deeper... and the following two simple filters improve the profits, and strike-rates, significantly...
Ascot Non-Handicap races only
FR and Irish bred runners only
...which improves the figures to...
Paul Nicholls | Ascot Last Time Out Winners | Non-Handicap races | FR and Irish bred runners
19/38 | 50% S/R | +£24.73 BFLSP – W&P 26/38 | 68% S/R
41% above market expectation
Some super strong stats from Paul Nicholls there and his Last Time Out Winners at Ascot are well worth keeping a look out for...
System 80: JO-107-80-10-23: Back Paul Nicholls GB and French Non Handicap runners at Ascot when they finished first on their last run.
HARRY FRY
Overall Ascot Last Time Out Winners Stats
11/32 | 34% S/R | +£13.88 BFLSP – W&P 18/32 | 56% S/R
48% above market expectation
Perhaps no surprise that it is one of Paul Nicholls’ former assistant trainers that also appears at the top of my Ascot Last Time Out Winners list.
His overall stats are solid on their own, as always, however, things can be tightened up further with a small tweak...
January to November only (so ignoring December)
...which improves the figures to...
Harry Fry | Ascot Last Time Out Winners | January to November
10/20 | 50% S/R | +£23.57 BFLSP – W&P 14/20 | 70% S/R
92% above market expectation
If you had played all the qualifiers each-way then the returns would have been slightly higher at +£25.25...
System 81: JO-107-81-10-23: Back Harry Fry’s runners at Ascot during the months of October, November, January and February when they finished first on their last run.
AYR
Moving north of the border and again there are two trainers appearing at the top of my Ayr Last Time Out Winners portfolio... that two being...
NICKY RICHARDS
Overall Ayr Last Time Out Winners Stats
23/67 | 34% S/R | +£44.18 BFLSP – W&P 38/67 | 57% S/R
9% above market expectation
Some seriously strong stats from the Penrith based trainer and he regularly makes the 116-mile trip north pay with his Last Time Out Winners.
One small filter improves things further...
Horses NOT making seasonal debut
...which improves the figures to...
Nicky Richards | Ayr Last Time Out Winners | Horses NOT making seasonal debut
21/49 | 43% S/R | +£55.96 BFLSP – W&P 30/49 | 61% S/R
35% above market expectation
System 82: JO-107-82-10-23: Back Nicky Richards’s runners at Ayr when they finished first last time out. Exclude horses making their seasonal debut.
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