Lose Less by John Cutts – Part VIII
Our next instalment of Lose Less kindly provided by the author, John Cutts.
Reviews for the book have been very positive with an overall 4 star rating.
The most important thing…is picking a winner!
CHAPTER 10 – Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG)
I read some time ago that only 20% of punters take advantage of the bookies concession Best Odds Guaranteed, (BOG). Therefore 80% of punters don’t and are either taking Industry Starting Prices, taking a price with the Big Bookies, pitting their wits on Betfair or taking Betfair SP.
BOG is a pretty straightforward offer by most of the major bookmakers.
The name of the game for big bookies is to increase turnover mainly at the expense of other bookies or exchanges as part of a long-term process that will see, eventually, as with all businesses, the big fish eating the smaller fish by driving them out of business or buying them out. Therefore, every concession each bookie makes is aimed at boosting their turnover at the expense of their competitors to make sure they are doing the eating rather than being eaten.
Which, for now, is good news for us and we should make hay while the Sun shines.
Best Odds Guaranteed is offered by some of the major bookies when offering prices for horse racing but not necessarily in all races nor in all types of bets.
For example, some will offer BOG for singles but not for multiple bets such as Yankees etc. So always check the terms and conditions.
BOG is simple really. Before it came along – and it has been used on and off since the 80’s to my knowledge – you could either take a price on a horse or take Starting Price (SP). In the former case, when the horse you took odds of 4/1 about romped home at 5/2, you would pat yourself on the back for your wisdom as you took the early odds of 4/1.
If the horse had drifted though, and won at 11/2, you were kicking yourself for taking the price because SP paid better than the early price offered. You could, of course, take SP, which would mean almost certain losses long term.
With BOG you are paid out on the best-case scenario. If the SP is greater than the BOG price you took when you placed the bet, you are paid out at SP. If the SP is less, you are paid out at the price you took.
Best Odds Guaranteed doesn’t mean, by the way, Best-Ever Odds Guaranteed, as was explained to me in no uncertain terms by one of the ladies from Paddy Power’s customer service team years ago!
If I take, say, 3/1 BOG price and that horse drifts out to 4/1 only to be backed in again to 10/3 SP, I will be paid at 10/3, NOT the best price that was ever available but the best of the two possibilities – taking a price and backing SP.
This is a marvellous concession and one we use for all our betting except for horses priced 20/1 plus where the betting exchanges have much better odds available.
Yes, there are Rule 4 deductions in the case of non-runner(s), but that is so if you take a price or let the bet run and accept SP.
Nowadays, we find the only reliable bookies when taking BOG the night before, is Bet365. Although this could have changed by the time you read this.
Racing Post Odds comparison site, Oddschecker, will tell you which bookies are offering BOG.
Why use BOG not the exchanges?
Pittsburgh Phil, on the excellent Flatstats site, did an excellent study regarding the performance of Betfair SP compared to Industry Starting Price (ISP) (which is decided by agreement between the big off course bookies now – hence the word “industry”).
My saved link takes me to “page no longer exists’, but I remember what I thought were the main lessons.
From this valuable piece of work, I note that Phil comes to similar conclusions to us regarding when it is best to use Betfair – for long shots.
What I find most interesting though is the 6.5% advantage that Betfair SP holds over SP for favourites. This is our experience, and not just for favs but the whole lower end, the 3/1 and under part of the market where most of the winners come from. It is why, as is said above, we use BOG bookies for all except the longshots.
Our experience is that, once you consider the Betfair equivalent to the bookies’ Rule 4 – the reduction factor – there isn’t much in it between the two. Therefore, anything that beats SP will beat Betfair SP.
I know from past, regular checks, that BOG has consistently outperformed Betfair SP when 5% commission and reduction factors are taken into account.
The only exceptions are with the long prices of 20/1+.
It also depends when you bet.
Research exists that shows that taking BOG around 8.30 the night before racing gives an ROI 7.5 times that of Betfair SP.
I am not able to link to the research but if you join our mailing list you will have my email address and be able to email me. I will send a link to the research by return.
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