The Pep Talk – Arc and Champions Day

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe

It feels as though Emily Upjohn has been around for ages, but she’s only had 9 races.

She boasts some top form from her classic year, with her Oaks second when splitting Tuesday and Nashwa being proven time and time again, as well as her emphatic Champions Day success.

She looked an improved horse when coming out and comfortably beating Westover in the Coronation Cup in June – that form shows she’s good enough to win the Arc. Then there was absolutely no disgrace in her defeat to Paddington in the Eclipse over a mile and a quarter. She was giving him plenty of weight over an inadequate distance. I’m actually more than comfortable writing off her King George flop, as she did exactly that in the same race last season too. The Gosdens got her back brilliantly from that to win in October last year, and there’s no reason why that can’t happen again.

I don’t think she has any serious issues with soft ground as she did win on Champions Day last season, so if there was a deluge in Paris, I’d like to think she’ll handle it. I also wouldn’t mind seeing a hood on her again, her two Group 1 wins have come when wearing it. In what will be Frankie Dettori’s last ride in a race which has been so successful for him, it would be a fairytale sign off for what has already been an incredible season for him.

Recommended Bet

Back Emily Upjohn @ 16/1

Champions Sprint

It was baffling to see Shaquille fold so tamely in the Sprint Cup last time, which has made this race a bit more of a tempting betting proposition. Kinross is the obvious favourite being last year’s winner, with his favourable soft ground likely. That being said, I think there’s value to be had with Spycatcher.

He has drastically upped his game since being gelded over the winter, winning twice, and going down by the smallest of margins in the Prix Maurice de Gheest (I still don’t know how he got beat). He’s at his best on soft ground and hasn’t had the opportunity to run again since that agonising defeat.

Whether he’s a bonafide Group 1 horse, I’m not entirely convinced yet, but given the likely conditions, he will have the chance to show his best and that should be close to good enough in a 6f division which doesn’t seem very deep.

Recommended Bet

Back Spycatcher @ 11/1

Champion Fillies & Mares

Three-year-olds have mopped up this race in recent years, winning 8 of the last 10, including the last 6 on the bounce. Aidan O’Brien has accounted for two of those.

His Savethelastdance looks tailor-made for this contest. She’s at her best on soft ground, which she is all but guaranteed at this meeting. Her form stacks up with her Oaks second, Irish Oaks win and Yorkshire Oaks third (Warm Heart, who beat her in York, has since won another Group 1), so she is proven amongst the older fillies as well now. I think on softer ground, she’ll have too much stamina for Warm Heart if they face off again.

Savethelastdance is heading for the Arc, but there’s three weeks between that and Champions Day this season, which will be more than enough time. Aidan O’Brien won this with Hydrangea and Magical on the back of runs on Arc weekend. I don’t think she’ll be winning the Arc, so it seems likely that this would be her next race and as long as the ground isn’t quick, she’s got a great chance.

Recommended Bet

Back Savethelastdance @ 8/1

Alex Peperell

Editor’s note: We posted the recommended bet in the Platinum Members Area on 15^th September, the prices quoted were generally available at that time.