Early Season Turf Handicap Trainers
Five trainers who excel with their early season Turf Handicappers (March & April)
We are now approaching the stage of the season where the major National Hunt Festivals and meetings are coming at us from all angles. It’s very easy to get consumed and bogged down by the Cheltenham’s, Aintree’s and Punchestown’s of this world (hell, I’ll be stat deep in them myself!) but we also need to keep an eye on the Flat (Turf) season sneaking in the back door and getting its motor running and back up to full speed.
The first turf skirmishes take place at the Doncaster Lincoln meeting on the 29th and 30th of March, before slowly but surely cranking through the gears in April, working itself up to full speed for the first classics of the season, on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile at the start of May.
As is always the case, some trainers will have their runners more forward than others for the opening rounds of the turf season, whilst others like to feel their way in for the first few weeks, using the opening month and a bit to fine-tune their charges on the track, before starting to have a proper crack at things once the season is back in the normal swing of things.
What I’m going to be highlighting in this month’s report are a group of trainers who are worth following/looking out for in the first few weeks of the turf season with their runners in HANDICAPS...
Those trainers that like to crack on with things straight off the bat and pick off some handicap winners to get their season off to a strong and sturdy start.
I’ll begin with a York based trainer who has posted a healthy number of handicap winners during the period under analysis (turf seasons 2015 through to 2024 have been used for this analysis) ...
David O’Meara
Overall record since 2015 in Turf Handicaps in March & April
55/437 | 13% S/R | +£38.88 BFLSP – W&P 149/437 | 34% S/R
9% below market expectation
A solid enough set of overall early season handicap figures to start the digging from, although he’s not been profitable every season under analysis and a bit of fine-tuning is needed to turn things a bit more in our favour...
The best place to start the process is by knocking out his runners in the top level handicaps...
David O’Meara | Class 2 Turf Handicaps | March & April
6/95 | 6% S/R | -£8.93 BFLSP – W&P 26/95 | 27% S/R
33% below market expectation
David O’Meara | Class 3, 4, 5 & 6 Turf Handicaps | March & April
49/342 | 14% S/R | +£47.81 BFLSP – W&P 123/342 | 36% S/R
5% below market expectation
As we can see from the above the O’Meara runners in Class 2 handicaps at this stage of the season hold a poor win strike-rate and also fire a fair bit below market expectation, so it makes sense to concentrate our efforts on those running at Class 3 level and below only...
Next, I want to look at the amount of handicap starts one of the David O’Meara runners already has on their CV, with the data telling us that those with 16 or more handicap starts already to their name are a tricky bunch to profit from in the early part of the turf season...
David O’Meara | Class 3, 4, 5 & 6 Turf Handicaps | Horses with 16 or more handicap starts | March & April
8/99 | 8% S/R | -£40.49 BFLSP – W&P 26/99 | 26% S/R
39% below market expectation
David O’Meara | Class 3, 4, 5 & 6 Turf Handicaps | Horses with 15 or less handicap starts | March & April
41/243 | 17% S/R | +£88.31 BFLSP – W&P 97/243 | 40% S/R
6% above market expectation
Those David O’Meara handicappers that have a more ‘exposed’ look about them (those with 16 or more previous handicap starts) eat out a big chunk of the profits and with them also firing 39% below market expectation, they are the next group that it makes sense to drop...
The final two filters I want to plug in, to make this a significantly more robust angle, are...
- Concentrate ONLY on Colts and Geldings
- Concentrate ONLY on horses NOT wearing any headgear
Those two final tweaks give us the following David O’Meara angle...
David O’Meara | Class 3, 4, 5 & 6 Turf Handicaps | Horses with 15 or less handicap starts | Colts and Geldings ONLY | Horses NOT wearing any headgear | March & April
37/181 | 20% S/R | +£130.86 BFLSP – W&P 77/181 | 43% S/R
26% above market expectation
Next on the list is another trainer that also has his base in Yorkshire...
Kevin Ryan
Overall record since 2015 in Turf Handicaps in March & April
39/300 | 13% S/R | +£45.43 BFLSP – W&P 100/300 | 33% S/R
1% above market expectation
A strong set of overall figures to be starting off with and Kevin Ryan is clearly a trainer that likes to get his handicappers rolling in the first couple of months of the flat season...
We can definitely tighten those figures up, however, and the first thing that catches my eye comes in the form of the Kevin Ryan jockey bookings...
Kevin Ryan | Turf Handicaps | March & April | Claiming Jockey riding
3/36 | 8% S/R | -£21.10 BFLSP – W&P 8/36 | 22% S/R
39% below market expectation
Kevin Ryan | Turf Handicaps | March & April | NOT ridden by a claiming jockey
36/264 | 14% S/R | +£66.53 – W&P 92/264 | 35% S/R
7% above market expectation
Never easy to exactly know why such splits appear, but my assumption would be that the horses Kevin Ryan lets his claimers ride at this stage of the season either need a run to get themselves up to speed or he possibly wants their handicap marks reduced a little (by running down the field) for a future target...
Whatever the exact reason is, for the purposes of this particular exercise, I’m happy to drop those Kevin Ryan handicappers ridden by a claiming jockey...
Next, I want to look at the distance splits for the early season Kevin Ryan handicappers...
Kevin Ryan | Turf Handicaps | March & April | NOT ridden by a claiming jockey | Trips of 7.5f+
7/108 | 6% S/R | -£57.51 BFLSP – W&P 28/108 | 26% S/R
48% below market expectation
Kevin Ryan | Turf Handicaps | March & April | NOT ridden by a claiming jockey | 5f-7f trips
29/156 | 19% S/R | +£124.04 BFLSP – W&P 64/156 | 41% S/R
44% above market expectation
As we can see, those horses running in handicap over trips further than 7-furlongs leave a gaping wide hole in the profits and strike a good bit below market expectation, and it makes sense to concentrate on those Kevin Ryan Handicappers running over the shorter trips (5f – 7f trips) ...
The final filter I want to apply looks at surface/track type, with the runners that Kevin Ryan sends to tracks described as ‘Undulating’ and ‘Very Undulating’ being another group that leaves a bit of a hole in the overall returns...
Kevin Ryan | Turf Handicaps | March & April | NOT ridden by a claiming jockey | 5f-7f trips | Tracks described as Undulating and Very Undulating
4/44 | 9% S/R | -£23.57 BFLSP – W&P 16/44 | 36% S/R
34% below market expectation
Removing those track types from the data set leaves us with the following Kevin Ryan ‘angle’...
Kevin Ryan | Turf Handicaps | March & April | NOT ridden by a claiming jockey | 5f-7f trips | Tracks described as Flat and Slightly Undulating
25/112 | 22% S/R | +£147.60 BFLSP – W&P 48/112 | 43% S/R
78% above market expectation
The third trainer on the list is yet ANOTHER who is based in the north (no bias from me here, I promise!) ...
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